The major (global) issues on services data and the fact that much services trade seems to take place outside any obvious rules mean I'm less confident than most in predicting a big economic hit in this area from Brexit. Many individual businesses will struggle though.
Here's one very good reason why services trade data is not to be relied upon. Using US an an example, but UK as world's second largest services exporter unlikely to be exempt. cfr.org/blog/when-serv…
We also need to consider the likelihood that Brexit leads to a relatively weakening of manufacturing compared to services, in line with our revealed comparative advantage. At odds with the rebalancing agenda, but quite likely given higher barriers to goods trade.
