Thread by @AnnaJerzewska

On business engagement and Brexit.

On one side businesses have not been as vocal about the impact of no-deal Brexit as they could have been. Not in public.

It's been a constant source of frustration.

/1

https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1268191822075047936

The private sector has in general been quite reluctant to speak up on Brexit for a number of reasons: reputational damage, engagement in “politics”, guidance given by HQs in foreign countries etc.

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Why I fully understand these reasons, and have discussed them at length with a couple of companies, they are also the ones that will be most affected.
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There is a difference here between smaller, local companies and multinationals with HQs, production and functions located in many countries.

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MNCs were often quick to understand the potential impact of Brexit on their UK/EU operations and started to plan gradually shifting their focus to other locations. Or at least considering the option. Scenario planning for moving authorisations, permits, certain functions etc

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Many smaller companies saw a decline in the number of purchase orders from the EU. Over the last 4 years - despite the fact that we’re still benefiting from SM+CU rules.

Shifts in supply chains are often gradual and slow.

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One thing that I feel has been somewhat missing in the Brexit debate is the fact that the private sector doesn’t operate on ideology but on profit/margin.

If these profits get squeezed, adjustments are just a matter of time. Something gotta give. Businesses will find a way.
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As far as I know, in private, behind closed doors or on an industry level, the tone of the conversation has been completely different. Clearer.

When engaging directly with officials/gov businesses have been much more direct and upfront.
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However, I’ve also been told that the message had to be softened and presented more as a challenge.

Which, in all fairness, is different than saying "this will hit us so badly we’ll need to move".

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It’s been quite hard to get these very real concerns into to public sphere.

Business/industry associations, various NGOs etc have been speaking up on such issues but many of these comments have simply been labelled as Project Fear
/10

Equally, the auto industry has always been the most vocal. @SMMT and others have done a great job highlighting the impact of tariffs, rules of origin and customs formalities on UK/EU auto supply chains.

Which is why I find any comments about timing somewhat unwarranted.
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I wish businesses, especially MNCs had played a bigger role in the Brexit debate. Though I understand why this was often not possible.
Still, at the end of the day, I think ppl tend to forget two points when it comes to such announcements (+other examples in the last year):
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1) Decisions are often made on company/group level where the UK is just one of many markets. And one that's particularly volatile at the moment.

2) Decisions are made based on forecasts and profit claculations.

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The last point I want to make is that while announcements by companies such as Nissan attract a lot of attention (obviously) this is the TIP OF THE ICEBERG (a large one but still).

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There is so much more of this happening on a smaller scale.
Smaller companies, incl SMEs have started the shift too.

And I don't feel this is being appropriately tracked and impact measured.

/end