I don't know, folks. And don't get me wrong.
Donald Trump has plenty to be worried about, but now that we have more votes and more times to look at them in Pennsylvania, he looks hard to beat juxtaposed to other states.
Look at Bucks County. Look at Joe Biden's party fracture.
Donald Trump has plenty to be worried about, but now that we have more votes and more times to look at them in Pennsylvania, he looks hard to beat juxtaposed to other states.
Look at Bucks County. Look at Joe Biden's party fracture.
It looks like another nail-biter to me, and if I'm Joe Biden and Co., I'd be afraid of ending up like Hillary Clinton.
In other words, 40k votes down and nowhere left to find them. AG and Treasurer races support me on this.
To boot, Trump's vote is consolidated. Biden's? Not.
In other words, 40k votes down and nowhere left to find them. AG and Treasurer races support me on this.
To boot, Trump's vote is consolidated. Biden's? Not.
It doesn't look like Wisconsin or Michigan, for damn sure. He's going to carry indies, as he is in "most" polls showing him down statewide.
Biden's going to lose at least 15 percent of that Sanders vote in PA. At least. His EVER SO SLIGHT turnout edge is not at all comforting.
Biden's going to lose at least 15 percent of that Sanders vote in PA. At least. His EVER SO SLIGHT turnout edge is not at all comforting.
If — of course, big if — we were looking at just that partisan vote, couple it together w/ Joe Biden's expected base loss and the anticipated indy margin, Trump would carry the state by about 40k votes. Remarkably similar to the GE in 2016.
Speaking of 2016...
Speaking of 2016...
In 2016, D turnout edge was slightly more prev. and we're talking about an incumbent (now) vs. a contested primary (then), and HRC still lost the state.
His consolidation — or, partisan vote share — and vote totals, have been historic for incumbents.
It shouldn't be dismissed.
His consolidation — or, partisan vote share — and vote totals, have been historic for incumbents.
It shouldn't be dismissed.
How should you take this thread?
I'm not making a projection here. Nobody should this early, only bullshitters. But I am saying that this showing is much stronger than I anticipated and if I was Team Trump, I'd feel pretty damn good about it.
Why?
My voters are def coming out.
I'm not making a projection here. Nobody should this early, only bullshitters. But I am saying that this showing is much stronger than I anticipated and if I was Team Trump, I'd feel pretty damn good about it.
Why?
My voters are def coming out.
