Cambridge UNI and PHE study suggests 17k new infections a day UK wide (a LOT more than the ONS study of ⬇️6k). We need to get to the bottom of the variation.
NW likely above R0=R1 and SW likely on R1.
We need that Pillar 2 test data urgently by Postcode mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
NW likely above R0=R1 and SW likely on R1.
We need that Pillar 2 test data urgently by Postcode mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
At 17k a day new infections and assuming a 14 day infection period that would mean c 238k infected people at any one time and 127k of them in the higher transmission period. 
Even in the areas where the median level is below one in most, if not all it has risen in the last few weeks to bring R0 perilously close to 1.
East, London, Midlands and South East are all at 0.9 or above.
No room to manoeuvre
East, London, Midlands and South East are all at 0.9 or above.
No room to manoeuvre
Death data suggests is is falling everywhere but, again very small margins and there has been information that individual hospitals are experiencing upticks in admissions and deaths.
Hence needing much more granular data at hospital town and village level
Hence needing much more granular data at hospital town and village level
For instance I saw that pillar 1 testing indicated a marked uptick in Gloucestershire a couple of weeks ago not necessarily reflected everywhere in the SW. pillar 2 data should provide more robust numbers.
Similarly it looks as if parts of Somerset also seeing a rise.
Similarly it looks as if parts of Somerset also seeing a rise.
That is the value of fast and effective tracing and isolation, so outbursts can be spotted early and transmission broken.
In addition the rolling PHE flu study now tests for COVID and that too showed an uptick in the SW but it would be good to know where with more precision.
In addition the rolling PHE flu study now tests for COVID and that too showed an uptick in the SW but it would be good to know where with more precision.
Manchester Royal Infirmary also reported in an uptick in deaths this week.
The national data showed both London (I think esp East London) Hospital admissions and the SE ICU admissions rising a couple of weeks back.
The national data showed both London (I think esp East London) Hospital admissions and the SE ICU admissions rising a couple of weeks back.
To the relief of some parents and some children more schools opened this week.
I hope the monitoring systems are working well (😳😳😳) because it looks as if schools partly reopening in Israel has resulted in the largest uptick in cases within 1 month
I hope the monitoring systems are working well (😳😳😳) because it looks as if schools partly reopening in Israel has resulted in the largest uptick in cases within 1 month
Yorkshire and the NE is the only region with the median R0 being below 0.9 and even then it is marginal at 0.89
Very tight. And up from the last review.
All rises probably due to increased movement and mixing.
Very tight. And up from the last review.
All rises probably due to increased movement and mixing.
