Magilla Gorilla 39 Profile picture
Jun 5, 2020 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
(1) Initial State Ro Values from @youyanggu model correlate moderately with State Population Densities. ImageImage
(2) One of the most important properties for any infectious disease is the basic reproduction number, known as Ro. Rather than pre-setting this value based on assumptions, the @youyanggu model is able to learn the value that most closely matches the data. Image
(3) For the United States, New York had the highest initial Ro value; New Jersey was second. Other states had much lower initial Ro values including Arkansas, Mississippi and Montana. Image
(4) In an earlier thread, I theorized why Initial Ro values might vary, including the idea of "seed cases", "urban/suburban/rural" classifications, and "population densities" within classifications.

(5) I decided to see if one hypotheses could explain some of the differences seen between the Initial Ro values, so I plotted the values against each states population density. Image
(6) After omitting Alaska, because its overall population density was not indicative of its inhabited region, and adjusting New York by using NYC's population density in place of the state's, I found a moderate correlation.

Beware: Semi-log paper. Image
(7) The correlation showed the Initial Ro value increased by a factor of 1.3 X (10 to the 0.1155) for each 10-fold increase in population density.

1 => 1.0
10 => 1.3
100 => 1.69
1,000 => 2.20
10,000 => 2.86
100,000 => 3.71
(8) This isn't a proof, but it does suggest that people living in low population density locations will be able to control the rate of transmission with fewer restrictions, because the initial Ro value for their locale is naturally lower.
(10) PS: State Population Densities are not very indicative of specific outbreak conditions. For example New York State's density doesn't reflect the conditions in New York City well.

For this correlation this is just an additional source of variance. Image
(11) I just liked this diagram; it's ANOVA statistics art. Image

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More from @39Magilla

Oct 1
(1) Video from behind Charlie Kirk shows that crowd near Charlie new displayed an "Acoustic Startle Response" during the high powered rifle shot, suggesting it was not shot at Charlie, but over the top of them.

(2) Background:
When a supersonic projectile passes nearby, it produces a shock wave that propagates a loud crack perpendicular to its conic front. Image
(3) That shock wave arrives at the target with the bullet. For people nearby the shockwave will be delayed, roughly by their distance from the shockwave divided by the speed of sound. Image
Read 19 tweets
Sep 30
(1) Top Threads by Detective Magilla 39:

Acoustic Startle Response Analysis (No Supersonic Crack)

Link:
Why top: The frame overlays and Wikipedia reflexes dump went viral in replies—Zeb Boykin engaged here indirectly via the warfighter tags.
(2) Top Threads by @39Magilla

Sniper Hide in FG 201A (Jamb Bore Vector)
Link:
Why top: Warfighter tags (@ZebBoykin, @ValhallaVFT) sparked replies; the repurposed diagram and wound correction got Zeb's like on a related reply.
@ZebBoykin @ValhallaVFT (3) Top Threads by @39Magilla

Directional Analysis Overlay (Losee Center Supersonic Origin)
Link:
Why top: @MichaKobs collab on the plot/map tie-in pulled in mapping nerds; solid follow to the hide thread.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 30
(1) Does the Disabled Veterans National Foundation (DVNF) T-Shirt Scream "Blind Meet"? Image
(2) When people meet on the Internet and then decide to rendezvous, they often use their clothing to identify themselves - a "Blind Meet".

Tyler Robinson's T-shirt was not inconspicuous, but it may have been the signal to the person that lured him to the Losee Center roof. Image
(3) But get this: Yesterday's X buzz exploded when Ryder Corral (that 19-y.o. TPUSA memorial trasher) got pinched in the exact same eagle-flag black long-sleeve—down to the gold accents—while chucking Kirk tributes in Phoenix. Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 28
(1) Deep Dive: AI Enhanced Photo of the potential shooter in Room 201A of the Brandon D. Fugal Gateway (FG) Building Image
(2) Viral @RangeDayBro video tried to locate the Sniper who shot Charlie Kirk in the right side.

That video, shared with others, had a frame that showed a suspicious person in Room 201A of the Fugal Gateway (FG) Building. Image
Image
@RangeDayBro (3) This is an AI Enhanced view of the suspicious figure alone in Room 201A of the Brandon D. Fugal Gateway (FG) Building during the Charlie Kirk Event: Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 27
(1) @MichaKobs directional analysis demonstrates that the supersonic bullet likely originated from the Losee Center (LC). Great job, Micha!

I overlaid his plot on a map to make this figure. Image
(2) @MichaKobs entire analysis was top notch. He placed the range at 128 m (151 yds), and had the most likely direction at 57 deg azimuth (ENE):

@MichaKobs (3) @MichaKobs also placed the average bullet velocity at 720 to 760 m/s (2,362 to 2,493 ft/s).

Read 9 tweets
Sep 27
(1) Seeking warfighter insights:
@paramounttactcl @ValhallaVFT @ZebBoykin

If the professional sniper (who framed Tyler Robinson as a patsy) is world class, where's the real sniper hide?

Please look at FG 201A? A lone actor was seen in the room by the window jamb during the event.

Image
(2) Unlike the theoretical and exposed sniper positions proposed in earlier theories, Brandon D. Fugal Gateway (FG) Building, Room 201A had a lone occupant during the rally.

(3) Repurposing this diagram developed by @Discordeus, I've added the shot vector from FG Room 20A to the photo and an indication of the entry vector on the victim. Image
Read 15 tweets

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