DCCC Doesn't Mess With Texas???
I knew the reveal of this cycle's @dccc Red to Blue list would tell us a lot about how much, if any, my research on how elections work in the polarized era had penetrated the Dem Party since the 2018 cycle. redtoblue.dccc.org
I knew the reveal of this cycle's @dccc Red to Blue list would tell us a lot about how much, if any, my research on how elections work in the polarized era had penetrated the Dem Party since the 2018 cycle. redtoblue.dccc.org
As I suspected- it hasn't. 2020's R2B is populated w several long shot money pits & is missing at least half a dozen prime races that, w investment, would be prime pick up targets for the Dems. I also started my TX ratings out equally among the 8 competitive races there
thinking they might better notice that 8 TX districts currently held by Rs have similar demographic factors that have led flips in other states (high college edu rates being chief among them). But to no avail- they've listed 3, just THREE, TX races on their initial list.
So, at this point, I'm ready to release a more nuanced list of Texas race ratings:
TX 21, 22 Likely D
TX 3, 24 Lean D
TX, 10, 25, 31 TU
TX 2 Lean R
TX 23 from Lean D to Likely D
TX 21, 22 Likely D
TX 3, 24 Lean D
TX, 10, 25, 31 TU
TX 2 Lean R
TX 23 from Lean D to Likely D
Technically speaking, it would be easier to win there than in the districts that dip into Austin. And if they can recognize this feature in the 22nd I don't understand why they're blind to it in the 3rd and 24th, esp as their mistake w not investing in @karaforcongress in '18.
Smartly, they've added her to 2020's R2B, I'd urge them to look closely at these other highly educated districts. Its not the candidate (or their positions- within reason)- its the district demos that matter.
Welcome to the New Age
Welcome to the New Age
