Climate Change by Numbers
a) average global temperature rise:
1.5°C not safe
|
2°C very dangerous
|
2.5°C
|
3°C most species wiped out
|
3.5°C
|
4°C huge death toll likely billions
* today: 1.3°C
* by 2030-2045: 2°C
* by 2050-2150: 2.5- 4°C
b) years left to act: 0
a) average global temperature rise:
1.5°C not safe
|
2°C very dangerous
|
2.5°C
|
3°C most species wiped out
|
3.5°C
|
4°C huge death toll likely billions
* today: 1.3°C
* by 2030-2045: 2°C
* by 2050-2150: 2.5- 4°C
b) years left to act: 0
1/ 'for the MAJORITY of animals and plants, 3.2°C of warming would mean having most of their habitat wiped out entirely.'
We'll most likely go over 3°C at some point between 2050 and 2150. I suspect this will happen before 2070, but of course I can't know.qz.com/1280872/keepin…
We'll most likely go over 3°C at some point between 2050 and 2150. I suspect this will happen before 2070, but of course I can't know.qz.com/1280872/keepin…
2/ Some scientists suggest fewer than one billion people could survive on a 4°C Earth:
climatecodered.org/2019/08/at-4c-…
climatecodered.org/2019/08/at-4c-…
4a/ see this thread on 2°C by the 2040s:
4b/
more in this thread on 2C by the 2040s, and why 3.5- 4C looks likely sooner or later (unless we invent magic technology, and climate sensitivity & feedbacks don't work against us).
more in this thread on 2C by the 2040s, and why 3.5- 4C looks likely sooner or later (unless we invent magic technology, and climate sensitivity & feedbacks don't work against us).
5/ this information is hard to take, but people deserve to be informed. Also, though this reality can make people feel rather despairing, it can also push people to be more determined to act, and not give up. It will never be too late to try to limit the damage. 💚
6/ if emissions continue to rise we could hit utterly horrific 4°C in just 30 - 40 years. It would be horrific because of the rate of change - most species wouldn't cope (trees included).
newscientist.com/article/dn1786…
newscientist.com/article/dn1786…
7/ Three and a half to four degrees by 2050 is possible but considered unlikely by climate scientists.
However, 3C by 2060 is a real threat, as is 4C by 2080.
🔺'LPHI warming under the two baseline scenarios can exceed 3.5–4°C by 2050 and 6.5–8°C by 2100'pnas.org/content/114/39…
However, 3C by 2060 is a real threat, as is 4C by 2080.
🔺'LPHI warming under the two baseline scenarios can exceed 3.5–4°C by 2050 and 6.5–8°C by 2100'pnas.org/content/114/39…
