Jason Abaluck Profile picture
Jun 6, 2020 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
It's time for normative economics Saturday wherein we discuss whether economic analysis reaches insane conclusions about racism. (Indirectly inspired by: )
Suppose society is 75% white people who like being racist and are rich(er), so they are willing to pay $50,000 to preserve the racist status quo. It's 10% black people who are each willing to pay $50,000 to end the racist status quo. Does pareto efficiency say: let's be racist?
After all, we might say, instead of ending racism, keep being racist, but tax rich white people, subsidize black people, and then everyone is better off?
One tempting (for economists) response is to say, "There is a frontier of pareto-efficient outcomes corresponding to different initial endowments. The racist world might be 'a' pareto-efficient outcome but it is not 'the' pareto-efficient outcome."
This response misses the main issue. It may well be the case that if endowments were different, the pareto-efficient outcome would change. But it still seems wrong to say: if white people are rich and numerous, racism makes everyone better off with appropriate transfers.
The real problem is with the idea of taking preferences as given because "there is no arguing about tastes". This is a *terrible normative assumption.*
A quick aside: Becker and Stigler put forward "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum" as a program for positive economics wherein instead of *explaining* things with taste differences, we try to model taste differences as arising from more primitive factors.
I'm not talking about the usefulness of that program here--I'm talking about the absurd normative idea shared by some economists that we shouldn't try to evaluate whether preferences are reasonable.
If you are willing to pay $50K to be racist, we shouldn't regard you as $50K worse off if we end racism, your preference is worthless trash. If you're willing to pay $100 million to see someone you dislike die, welfare isn't improved if you pay them to play Russian Roulette.
Is the problem here only with "Other Regarding Preferences"? (see: pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d16c/442d67fd7…). No! Self-regarding preferences are often wrong (uninformed) and arguably unethical (e.g. unfair to your future self).
Any call to say, "Well, let's weigh the claims of the protestors against the willingness to pay of police to exert power over them" would be rightly met with derision -- this isn't a shortcoming of conventional economic analysis but it highlights the need to be normative.
John Stuart Kill () is right that we should generally give deference to people about their own preferences, and more deference as we consider more onerous forms of paternalism.
But this doesn't excuse us from having to evaluate preferences, and it doesn't even make it sensible to take preferences as given in most settings. It means that we should be very cautious to avoid the common error of thinking we know better when we don't.
Every time we take preferences as given in welfare analyses we are making a substantive assumption that preferences are informed, consistent and deserving of ethical weight. These assumptions should be made explicit and defended.

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More from @Jabaluck

Jun 26
The modern economic case for public provision is not about public goods or market failures or externalities. It is about what can and can't be achieved by contracting.
The classic reference is Shleifer's 1998 JEP article: Image
Shleifer's important and influential point is that externalities don't provide a case for public provision if contracts are complete and enforceable.
Read 22 tweets
May 12
Good news everyone! The unpopular and seemingly irrelevant lecture I give in my health econ class on "Most favored nations agreements" just became prophetically relevant.

Bad news everyone! This is a terrible policy.
🧵
There are two separate questions:
1) Will MFNs lower prices?
2) Is lowering drug prices a good idea?
On point 1), the answer is: probably not. My colleague Fiona Scott Morton has a paper on what happened when Medicaid introduced MFNs. MFNs essentially say Medicaid has to pay a lower price than all other insurers for drugs.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
It remains a civilizational failing that you can't challenge people like @oren_cass and Peter Navarro to proper intellectual duels to reveal them as the complete charlatans they are.
@oren_cass And no, a public debate in front of people who don't know any better is not an "intellectual duel." An intellectual duel would be, something like:
@oren_cass 1) Appoint a panel of 4 judges you both respect as qualified and smart. I assume
@oren_cass and Peter would dismiss the entire economics profession, so maybe you pick Terry Tao or Ed Witten.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 6
Doctors should stop prescribing antibiotics to treat bacterial infections. All the existing evidence showing health benefits has serious shortcomings, and the data show that antiobiotics massively increase mortality.

(Read to the end before commenting)
I decided to look at the data for myself. In Medicare, those prescribed antiobiotics were 37% MORE LIKELY TO DIE than people who didn't use antibiotics. And yes, this difference is enormously statistically significant (p << 0.0001) Image
What happens if we look over time when people start using antibiotics? I find an even bigger increase. Mortality increases by 42% in the 6 months following initiation of some antiobiotic therapy. Image
Read 24 tweets
Dec 22, 2024
I suspect we are about to enter an interim period where AI exceeds human performance on many cognitive tasks, but this is not common knowledge, and so most people and institutions act like this is not generally the case.
This may well already be true of self-driving cars. I think it is going to be true for large swaths of academia, government and industry, but even blind testing won't persuade -- many people will insist that nothing generalizes beyond the very specific context studied.
People will also point to instances of older models making wrong, unusual or unpopular suggestions in one case as if this justifies ignoring the models in all other cases, even though in any systematic evaluation, the models outperform humans.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 10, 2024
A book review of Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin.

This is probably the first book review you will read that has absolutely no spoilers and that you will appreciate equally whether you have read the book or not (at least if you read to the end).
The first few characters introduced in the book are named after characters from James Joyce novels -- I read Portrait of the Artist for a high school class and had enough of a passing familiarity with his other work to recognize the names.
I was immediately worried. Was this the kind of writer who thought an "allusion" meant, "haha, I like this author so I will use the same names!" Why would such a writer like James Joyce? I realized quickly I could not be more wrong.
Read 12 tweets

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