I am beginning to wonder about the similarities between the Ford Motor Company (FoMoCo) and Facebook.
FoMoCo was a center of innovation in the early 20th century--and driven so by its CEO, Henry Ford.
Having pushed GM into bankruptcy, FoMoCo ruled the auto industry.
It was a profitable rule, and Henry Ford bought all maner of raw materials to assure that FoMoCo assembly lines were always supplied.
FoMoCo was progressive with wages--Henry Ford wanted to make sure there was a population that could afford to buy his cars. FoMoCo was the first American corporation to pay $5 for a day's work.
But then something happened in the mid-1920s. Innovation at FoMoCo stopped. Henry Ford's dictum that a customer could choose any color so long as it's black put Ford at a disadvantage to GM, which used colors to differentiate its cars and allow consumers chose in what to buy.
At GM, innovations began to rule the day, and GM ascended to takeover rule of the industry. And Ford? It stagnated.
With that stagnation began a downward spiral. Henry Ford was virulently anti-union and he made sure that there was no questioning of anything that he said or did. The Ford workforce quaked at the bodily threats of FoMoCo's security detail.
By the end of WW2, FoMoCo had become irrelevant to the American auto industry. Many wondered if the company would be around in 1950.
Enter Henry Ford II, who overhauled the company--effectively reversing any if not most of his grandfather's decisions from the past 20 years.
I've been asked for a prediction on Covid-19 for 2021. As a physician-epidemiologist, here goes:
1. Let's assume the virus doesn't mutate any further (if it does, then all bets are off, unless the spike proteins remain intact and virulence is unchanged.
2. January
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will be awful in the US. Given the views of airports and the line waiting at the shopping malls locally, I see a major surge. As in vertical. It may not last for more than 2-3 weeks, but it will scare the bejesus out of everyone.
3. Vaccinations will take longer than
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projected in the US. However, population acceptance of the vaccine will be much broader than is currently discussed.
Some countries, like Israel, will complete vaccinating their populations by the end of May, and their economies will reopen. Fully.
"Swedish Experiment" as though it established some template to be followed. The problem is that Sweden has specific characteristics that render it unique.
For instance,
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in 2018, most of the households in Sweden in 2018 were single-person households without children statista.com/statistics/524….
In NYC, on the other hand, in 2019, the average number of persons in a household is north of 2.5 (census.gov/quickfacts/new…).
in this story discouraging. First, it seems as though these airlines couldn't be bothered consulting with epidemiologists about the risks of becoming infected with Covid-19 on a flight and how to reduce that risk.
I say that because I do not think many of my fellow
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epidemiologists would look at the issue in terms of a 1% risk of infection. The risk of a heart attack in the US this year is 0.3%. So a 1% risk isn't exactly re-assuring. The notion of a low risk was something the
tobacco industry hung onto. Not that smoking and
The US saw a decline until mid-Sept or so. Is that because schools re-opened? Colleges? Not clear from this graph. Is this the 3rd wave? Interesting that India locked down and cases dropped quickly. The US, not so fast.
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These are the state counts. The Dakotas are seeing increases, as are Wisconsin, Puerto Rico and Utah. Perhaps most notable is the upswing in Texas, which had seemed to have gotten the outbreak under control. That may have been a premature assessment, though.
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These are the case-fatality rates in different countries. The US is in the middle of the pack. Some of the countries, like India, have lower rates simply because they have younger populations with fewer co-morbidities and lower risk of death if infected.
It's time to take a look under the hood of some of the Covid-19 vaccine trials--and I'll do it as both physician and epidemiologist.
In doing so, I'm wondering why some decisions were made as they were, since it isn't clear to me that
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the trial will provide the information many seem to think it will.
What do I mean?
Let's start with reduction of virus spread.
FDA wants a reduction of 50% in incidence of infection--pretty much the same as flu (cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-w…). To get to that reduction,
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the vaccine must have 70% effectiveness and be used by 80% of the population (cnbc.com/2020/08/27/how…).
So there we have our first problem. It doesn't seem likely that we're going to have that many people interested in having the vaccine in the general population. Polls
Do airlines actually understand much about their customers? I have to wonder, because it seems that recent actions suggest--strongly--that they do not.
For example, it took 4 mos for the airlines to cancel change fees. What took so long??
I have to wonder about baggage check fees. Wouldn't it make more sense if you were charged for carrying your bag rather than checking it? Still haven't heard anything about that.
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Then there's the issue of how one flies--seats are part of the problem (sardine factor, too)--@recaro_as--but looking at the article above, it's like the airlines are in a different world than I am.