Physician, epidemiologist (and biostats), engineer. Yes, I've spent way too much of my life on my rear end in classrooms.
Author, Wondercillin (see below)
2 subscribed
Dec 29, 2020 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
I've been asked for a prediction on Covid-19 for 2021. As a physician-epidemiologist, here goes:
1. Let's assume the virus doesn't mutate any further (if it does, then all bets are off, unless the spike proteins remain intact and virulence is unchanged.
2. January
2/
will be awful in the US. Given the views of airports and the line waiting at the shopping malls locally, I see a major surge. As in vertical. It may not last for more than 2-3 weeks, but it will scare the bejesus out of everyone.
"Swedish Experiment" as though it established some template to be followed. The problem is that Sweden has specific characteristics that render it unique.
For instance,
Sep 28, 2020 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
There’s less than a 1% chance of catching Covid-19 on a plane, says airline exec
in this story discouraging. First, it seems as though these airlines couldn't be bothered consulting with epidemiologists about the risks of becoming infected with Covid-19 on a flight and how to reduce that risk.
I say that because I do not think many of my fellow
Sep 22, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Covid-19 in the US as of Sept 21 (per JHU)
The US saw a decline until mid-Sept or so. Is that because schools re-opened? Colleges? Not clear from this graph. Is this the 3rd wave? Interesting that India locked down and cases dropped quickly. The US, not so fast. 2/
These are the state counts. The Dakotas are seeing increases, as are Wisconsin, Puerto Rico and Utah. Perhaps most notable is the upswing in Texas, which had seemed to have gotten the outbreak under control. That may have been a premature assessment, though.
Do airlines actually understand much about their customers? I have to wonder, because it seems that recent actions suggest--strongly--that they do not.
For example, it took 4 mos for the airlines to cancel change fees. What took so long??
I have to wonder about baggage check fees. Wouldn't it make more sense if you were charged for carrying your bag rather than checking it? Still haven't heard anything about that.
As an epidemiologist, I have to wonder if these designers/architects/real estate developers have bothered to consult with one or more epidemiologists about these designs. Somehow, I doubt it.
in which great software engineers design a system that is very slick computer code but is difficult to use because no one consulted with either likely users or those needing to support the software in the course of developing the system.
It would be best if they first asked
Sep 2, 2020 • 22 tweets • 5 min read
We now have a name for all those Covid-19 sequelae: "Long Haul Syndrome" or LHS.
Speaking as an epidemiologist, the idea of "intelligent distancing" is great if--and it's a big if--there is rapid testing available. The other problem not considered is compliance, which we've seen isn't great in some groups in the
We have identified the receptor that allows Covid-19 entry into the lungs. Why not use AI to examine in the Human Cell Atlas which other cells have that receptor?
all the cells in which that receptor is located, but since the virus uses that receptor for entry into cells (at least in the lungs), then identification of other cells with the receptor raises the question of whether the virus infects those other cells.
the Chief Executive's control, couldn't a syndicate of some of the financial leaders in the society, such as Bezos or Gates or Ballmer or...raise the $20-25 billion to provide the needed funding for the
would be open to returning to DC for a confirmation battle. McConnell may not have those votes, and for any senators who have lost re-election or are retiring, his trying to woo those persons back to DC, away from their families in the middle of a pandemic--is going to be
I am a physician-epidemiologist, and have a complete different take on comparing Covid-19 with flu, specifically look at more than one dimension (as in deaths).
We can leave aside the issue of just how contagious it is.
About 20% of the GOP right now are ardent Trumpers. They feel forgotten and are seeing the country they grew up with disappear demographically (not sure that that's true politically, though). But
since I think the core is relatively small, the GOP itself fractures, much as the Whig Party did in the 1850s. Part of the Whig Party reappeared as the Republicans--which defined its constituency as the rapidly growing urban centers with their ability to generate
Jul 29, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
You gotta love this.
No one questions that the 1st Amendment doesn't allow you to scream "Fire!" in a crowded theater.
No one questions that the government can require you to have a license to drive a car. No license=no driving (legally).
Looking at the situation as a physician-epidemiologist, I note that there are five elements to keep in mind when considering the question of whether schools should reopen:
1. While it is true that to date, children appear to
have milder cases of Covid-19 compared with adults, subclinical cases are associated with such things as scarred lungs. Maybe that's important in the future, maybe it's not. We just don't know.
Something not often mentioned in this discussion is that Covid-19
Is the holy grail really a protective vaccine against Covid-19?
Looking at the challenges to be confronted in developing and using a vaccine--any vaccine--against Covid-19, I have to wonder if we are using the wrong strategy
2/
in focusing on a vaccine or strictly on therapeutics to treat those with active disease.
To be clear, I am not suggesting that work on therapeutic treatments is not important. Indeed, I doubt that remdesivir will suffice as Tx by itself. More likely is a cocktail. That was
I'm an epidemiologist, and I quite agree. However, I think that the measure of immunity is going to be T-cells, not antibodies; there just haven't been m/any reports of re-infections.
Two characteristics in the SF Bay Area were key to the establishment of "Silicon Valley": Stanford, UC Berkeley, UCSF. They have strong engineering schools, attract young adults, and have anchored the ecosystem.
The result is that lots of talent comes to the "Valley" (SF to SJ).
The lack of such a concentration is the reason there aren't more SVs. Boston is similar--and it's now emerging as a biotech start-up center.
It took six decades for SV to get to where it is today.
Jul 13, 2020 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
California is in the process of revisiting its re-opening with the cessation of indoor dining and the like.
Some suggest that rather than dealing with the cycles of opening and closing, we should just accept that Covid-19 has become part of our lives and leave it at that.
2/
Essentially, that's the "Swedish model," and while there are many who think that following Sweden's lead in not shutting down at all would address the economic costs of the pandemic, they fail to factor in that Sweden's economy is taking a profound hit, too.
2 subscribed
