Sage epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds asked by Marr if he regrets anything in science advice... immediately replies:
“yes we should have gone into lockdown earlier...it cost a lot of lives unfortunately”...
“yes we should have gone into lockdown earlier...it cost a lot of lives unfortunately”...
Edmunds acknowledges it would have been hard to pull the trigger at that point because the data was poor, bu he wishes we had...
If this regret on late lockdown is shared across Sage scientists & Directors of Public Health, may also explain some of advice, eg not lowering Covid Alert Level, or to schools in NW England will now be very cautious indeed on the issue of easing lockdown and reopening
data underplayed - empirical situation ie what was actually happening in Italy & China..& Italian doctors screamed warning to us publicly..indeed anon Govt briefing was rather dismissive of Italy. also UK didnt attend some key European health meetings
Eg this meeting of the Health & Security Committee, where Italians update on clusters from Ski resorts in Italy, screening, 24th Feb. ECDC communicate risk “moderate to high” across EEA/UK. UK not minuted as attending: 
Data overplayed - models of wrong disease - influenza, that underplayed contagiousness, & issue pandemic stockpile medicines for half population, and prebought and allocated vaccine, were ineffective against a coronavirus, and therefore social distancing/ isolation only option.
Precise point in March Govt under pressure for not copying European lockdown, different advisers both anonymously & on record to all 3 major TV news, *volunteered* against backdrop of intense questions about late lockdown, concept of herd immunity...
Hancock disagrees with Edmunds that late lockdown was a mistake and cost many lives [also repeatedly says Herd immunity wasn’t a strategy] - says other scientists on Sage have other views...
No ground given on idea there might have been serious early mistakes...
No ground given on idea there might have been serious early mistakes...
Might say no point going over this now...
But can start to explain current mysteries:
- eg Covid alert Level now downplayed as trigger for easing.
- Reluctance of scientists to be seen as green light for easing.
- Disagreements between central Govt & local public health
But can start to explain current mysteries:
- eg Covid alert Level now downplayed as trigger for easing.
- Reluctance of scientists to be seen as green light for easing.
- Disagreements between central Govt & local public health
ICYMI on Marr...
Here is Professor John Edmunds:
Here is Professor John Edmunds:
And the Health Secretary disagreeing:
