Thread by @cjayanetti

I've been thinking through how a Corbyn government would have handled the coronavirus pandemic, and whether he would have done a better job of it than Boris Johnson.

TLDR: Almost certainly yes - but with caveats /1

First, it's important to consider the circumstances of a Corbyn government after GE19 - almost certainly a minority government, with some loose arrangement with the SNP and/or LDs, and with a great deal of wariness from many Labour MPs.

That imposes certain constraints /2

In addition, much of the right wing press would remain completely hostile, and other sections of the media would remain suspicious. There would be outright communists likely occupying positions of power as advisors. This would not be quietly accepted b opponents /3

And on top of *that* - and related to it - certain demographics would almost certainly remain hostile to Corbyn, albeit not to the extent that saw Johnson win a solid majority.

I'm thinking older people in particular - the biggest at-risk group from coronavirus /4

So Corbyn would not have been running a government with a secure position, and would have faced significant opposition and distrust.

/5

On top of that, he'd only have been in office for a very short time. His govt would have been preoccupied with its vast programme of transformative policies - prepping renationalisations, setting up new financial institutions, and negotiating a new Brexit deal and referendum /6

So there'd be big odds stacked against him. I don't think we can assume Labour would have been focused on preparing for a pandemic back in January - health secretary Jon Ashworth would have been busy fighting immediate fires left by the Tory goverment /7

And crucially, the extra money pledged by Labour for the NHS and social care may not have arrived by early March - and even if it had, it wouldn't have had time to have an effect on capacity etc. /8

So the first big question - would Labour have locked down earlier than Johnson?

Labour in opposition called for lockdown before the government finally moved. And they'd surely have been more responsive to Neil Ferguson's 250k deaths forecast, revealed to the govt in late Feb /9

Nor would I expect them to display the British exceptionalism evident in the Tories' rather dismissive attitude to the growing crisis in Italy in early March.

And online Corbynites were crying out for early lockdown.

So that all points to Corbyn locking down early.

BUT... /10

...we know that SAGE was not advising the government to go for lockdown in early March.

Would a Corbyn govt have gone against its own scientific advisers?

/11

I think this comes down to the extent to which SAGE was influenced by the behavioural scientists from the Behavioural Insights Team - and whether the behaviouralists would have been part of the picture under a Corbyn govt.

/12

If, for example, Labour had shut down or marginalised the 'nudge unit', it's possible SAGE might have advised locking down earlier.

On balance, I think it's more likely than not that Labour would have implemented lockdown earlier in March than the Tories did /13

Would early lockdown have worked?

This is a messier question than you might think.

14/

We know SAGE were worried people wouldn't comply for very long. Some have used recent scenes from beaches as evidence they were right.

I think that's a red herring - the govt was briefing newspapers about 'the end of lockdown' etc etc, and some people followed that cue /15

I think the bigger question - under ANY government - is whether people would have complied with an early lockdown, before Britain experienced the sharp rise in cases and deaths that frightened people into complying with the eventual lockdown /16

We know a lot of people voluntarily 'locked down' in mid-March, once the Ferguson report was published. At that point, the govt was advising people to socially distance but not yet enforcing it.

But compliance with a lockdown imposed in *early* March would have been tougher /17

And then you have Corbyn's unpopularity with older voters.

This demographic trusts - or trusted - Johnson. Would they have trusted Corbyn?

I don't think so. Bear in mind the likely press stories that Milne/Murray were using corona as an excuse to seize the economy etc /18

So while I think Corbyn would have locked down earlier than Johnson, compliance may well have been an issue. Things could have got very messy on that front - police action against pensioners and all sorts. And all against the backdrop of a highly unstable government /19

You might be wondering by now - why am I so sure Corbyn would have handled this better than Boris?

Well - first, Labour leaders (mostly) take local government more seriously than Tory ones. Labour would have worked more closely with regional leaders, eg Burnham /20

And I think that would have led to a more coherent public health response, especially in terms of testing and possibly in terms of PPE. Local government would have got more data from Whitehall. There'd have been much better communication. /21

Moreover, Corbyn's Labour paid MUCH more attention to the trade unions than the Tories.

I am *certain* a Corbyn govt would have raised sick pay and made it more universal - meaning care workers would NOT have been turning up to care homes infected with Covid.

*Crucial*

/22

Also, there'd have been tighter restrictions on what workplaces could continue to function during lockdown, with tighter restrictions on employers and more protections for workers.

Look at the class profile of Covid morbidity. Again, crucial.

/23

Having better communication with the unions would also have given Lab earlier warnings about the chaos in care homes and the need for more PPE etc.

On PPE - Lab wouldn't have had the time or (initially) the focus to replenish the PPE stockpile. There would have been issues /24

On testing - the WHO said 'test, test, test'; SAGE/PHE didn't, partly due to capacity issues.

I'm not sure which way Corbyn/Ashworth would have swung here. Would they have made use of private sector lab capacity, for example? Not sure. /25

So I'm not sure whether, and to what extent, PPE and testing would have been better under Labour.

I certainly don't think they'd have been any worse...

/26

Re Covid patients being discharged into care homes - I think the Tories sleepwalked into this. The guidance was issued when most discharged patiens were non-Covid. I think the govt assumed Covid patients could be discharged and isolated in care homes - very hard in reality /27

So I think it would have come down to whether the adult care sector was properly represented in advisory bodies under Corbyn.

But I'm sure the guidance, even if adopted by Corbyn, would have been dropped quicker under union pressure - and testing in care homes increased /28

I don't think this would have been plain sailing at all under Corbyn - it would have been messy, difficult, with huge hostility, lack of trust, and initially lack of compliance.

Things would have gone wrong and our death toll would have piled pressure on the govt /29

The issue with Corbynites was always how they reacted to criticism. Would they have taken more control for themselves to 'get a grip' on things? Would they have viewed civil servants with suspicion? Would there have been civil war in the govt? /30

I think, in a minority govt, John McDonnell - probably a more influential chancellor than even Brown - would have advised caution on this front.

And I think that is what would have averted disaster, and why a Corbyn govt would have got better results than Johnson. /31

Two other final points:

1) McDonnell would have demanded govt equity stakes in large firms in return for bailouts (leading to financial upsides for the govt, but possible mass redundancies at firms refusing to give away equity).

Airlines would have been a flashpoint /32

2) I say with certainty - based on how Labour under Corbyn handled complaints about senior Corbynite staff - that had a Murray or a Milne done a Cummings and broken lockdown, Corbyn's first response would have been to protect and defend them.

Five days later they'd be gone /END