While I wait to fall asleep, some thoughts on the election results.

Labour achieving such a giant majority without increasing its vote share in England or Wales from its catastrophic 2019 defeat is extraordinary. It does not follow that this was mere accident or luck, however Had Labour not detoxified its brand - had the prospect of a Labour government still sparked widespread concern as it did in 2019 (and, to a lesser degree, 2017), the right wing vote would have been much likelier to unite, and the LDs would not have marched through the Tory South

NEW: The government is telling migrants who have lived in Britain for decades to provide proof for every year of their residency as part of its controversial transition to digital visas

By me, for the Observer:
theguardian.com/uk-news/articl… By the end of 2024, non-EU migrants with indefinite leave to remain will need digital eVisas to prove their residency rights, rather than the current physical Biometric Residence Permits (BRPs)

But many people - up to 200,000 of them - don't have BRPs as they arrived so long ago

Labour's support is broad but shallow - that means its coming victory will be unusually big, but its eventual defeat could be unusually bad.

By me, for Bloomberg (paywalled, but thread below)
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… So, you know the score. Labour is miles ahead in the polls - and we shouldn't overlook what a significant achievement that is given where they were in 2019.

But there's no great "enthusiasm" for them and in a handful of seats that they ought to win, they look vulnerable

NEW: The DWP is rejecting more than 40% of applications for PIP disability benefit from people with multiple sclerosis, cerebral palsy and arthritis – and one in four applications from amputees

By me, for the Observer 👇theguardian.com/society/articl… Thousands of applicants with illnesses such as cancer, PTSD, schizophrenia and emphysema were turned down by the DWP over a six-month period

The data shows the difficulties faced by people with fluctuating conditions when applying for PIP theguardian.com/society/articl…

Hundreds of thousands fewer disabled people could receive cold weather payments under the Conservatives’ planned post-election disability benefit reforms, according to a leaked internal government report.

By me, for the Observer theguardian.com/society/2024/a… Cold Weather Payments (CWP) are top-ups worth £25 paid to people on low incomes for each week of freezing weather between November and March

Disabled people qualify for them if they 'pass' the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) - but the Tories plan to scrap the WCA post-election

The first one to go bust was Tory Northamptonshire, but why would facts matter when you wrote Boris Johnson’s manifesto

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1736324312221569535

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the thread gets worse from there - a roll call of Tory hotdogging. SEND ‘golden tickets’ - check. Blame the ‘middle classes’ (this, apparently, is what Tories do now) - check. ‘Oh noes the statutory duties’ - check.

"The defendant is a widow in her 80s, disabled with osteoarthritis – and set to be made homeless in two hours."

I spent a day at court to see the situation facing tenants fighting eviction. Here's my long read on a crucible of crises: 👇theguardian.com/society/2023/d… I shadowed @Shelter's duty solicitor at Watford County Court, Ruth Camp, as she provided courtroom representation to tenants who'd otherwise have been flying solo against the landlords trying to evict them.

NEW: The DWP is rejecting a record high of 90% of PIP disability benefit appeals

Those who then take their appeal to tribunal have an 80% success rate

Campaigners say the DWP is ignoring legal rulings in order to reject appeals

By me, for @BigIssue bigissue.com/news/social-ju… The DWP is rejecting 89% of "Mandatory Reconsideration" appeals relating to initial applications for PIP - down from more than 40% in early 2021, and the lowest success rate since PIP was launched a decade ago bigissue.com/news/social-ju…

I think since Rishi Sunak's energy bailout announcement in May there's been an unconscious conflation of two things:

- people struggling to meet their *current* energy bills
- the prospect of energy bills rising much higher

Addressing the second doesn't itself address the first I think this is partly because Sunak's bailout pledged *up to* £1,200 for the most in-need households (with notable exclusions, eg unpaid carers) - with £1,200 the then-predicted *average* rise in energy bills

But ofc, *average* means plenty of households faced much bigger rises

Nearly 40 percent of parents are failing to make any payments under the government-run child maintenance scheme.

The DWP admits the withdrawal of the Universal Credit uplift is among the reasons for the falling payment rate.

By me, for the Observer theguardian.com/money/2022/aug… The Child Maintenance Service (CMS) is meant to ensure that parents who live away from their children – known as ‘non-resident’ parents – make payments towards their children’s upkeep

But like the old Child Support Agency that it replaced, it's struggling
theguardian.com/money/2022/aug…

Labour has spent over two years freaking out about how to win the support of "working people"

Now there's a cost of living crisis caused by external factors and the Tories are telling "working people" to take the hit in their pay packets and Labour... doesn't know what to say This crisis hasn't been caused by workers' pay, so pay (and all benefits) should rise with inflation. Private and public sector.

The old adage is 'if you're explaining, you're losing' - but it's a lot simpler to explain than guff about 'wage-price spirals'

"The govt may find it has written political cheques to key voters that it does not have the courage to cash, leaving it risking the worst of both worlds – loudly making promises it loudly fails to deliver."

I looked at levelling up for Politics Home politicshome.com/thehouse/artic… Since 2010, the govt's approach to regional inequality has gone from slash-and-burn austerity, to focusing on city-regions, to talking about towns.

The key tensions in the white paper seem to be between agglomeration and focusing on towns, and between spending and austerity

It's Corbyn Day on twitter again (when isn't it) so I thought I'd consider what Britain's response to the Ukraine War would have been like under a Corbyn government...

1/13 For argument’s sake, let’s say prime minister Corbyn would be able to do what he wants within the confines of the 2019 manifesto (i.e. still in Nato, still with Trident)

A few general points on British politics:

- oppositions almost never win power without an economic crisis
- voters who like Boris forgive him a lot
- voters who like him are social authoritarians who blame outgroups in the British public when things go wrong (e.g 'scroungers') - the Tories' biggest asset is they probably don't have to actually *deliver* on levelling up by 2024 - just look like they're trying
- the Tories' other big asset is it's not hard to make things seem like things in general are improving by 2024 compared to now (see also GE15)

There are some very odd school names in England. This may be the oddest I've come across yet oh come ON

Most of the commentary on this plan is focused on the mooted NI tax rise and the proposed 'care costs cap' at £50k-80k.

But the real story imo is raising the wealth limit for state support to £100k. I think that's where the real impact would be.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/… At present, if you need 'residential care' (care delivered in a care home) and you have assets worth more than £23,250 - including your own home - you generally don't qualify for state funded residential social care.

🚨 NON-PHILIP NEWS🚨

This might be one of the most insane stories I've ever covered

📢 Tory MPs are billing £20,000+ of their rent to the taxpayer
📢 while making money RENTING OUT properties they own
📢 AND cutting housing benefit for the poorest theguardian.com/politics/2021/… I've found 42 cases where Tory MPs are billing their own rent to the taxpayer while at the same time renting out housing for at least £10,000 a year

Sixteen of them are renting out housing in London itself theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

If you’re interested in BLM or MeToo, this story will interest you:

How the Tate banned a young black female artist after she spoke out about her alleged abuse by a powerful Tate donor.

By me, for @VICEUK /THREAD (CN: racism, abuse... everything)

vice.com/en/article/n7v… In 2012 Jade Montserrat met Anthony d’Offay, one of the most powerful figures in the British art world. Over the ensuing months and years, she alleges that he used his power to establish a controlling and abusive relationship with her /2

One thing I think is overlooked when talking about China's success in growing its economy and reducing poverty, is that we're comparing its current position to an extremely low base.

And that base was so low because of the disastrous policies of the Chinese Communist Party So yes, the transformation has been dramatic, but the reason it's been so dramatic is because of the appalling and murderous mess left behind by the worst economic system ever devised: Maoism.

Jessica Butcher, newly appointed to the Equalities and Human Rights Commission, criticised #MeToo and said women who suffered discrimination should find a way round it rather than complaining.

I want to bring out more aspects to my Observer story /THREAD theguardian.com/society/2020/n… First, her comments on #MeToo: “Men have had their careers and reputations ruined overnight by MeToo – some possibly justly, but without any due process, no innocence until proven guilty”

I asked her to name any men who had their reputations unjustly ruined by MeToo

She did not

Trump apologists 🤝 Jacobin left

'Biden's victory is a disastrous failure for Biden' It's just so fucking transparent