@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale I've read it. I'll deal with it point by point later.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 1/ We begin with the setup for the conceit - a game of lies:
"Nobody, outside the ranks of Britain’s Brexiteer ultras, thinks that ending our transition out of the European Union’s single market and customs union without having secured some kind of trade deal is a good idea. "
"Nobody, outside the ranks of Britain’s Brexiteer ultras, thinks that ending our transition out of the European Union’s single market and customs union without having secured some kind of trade deal is a good idea. "
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 2/
So it's not a "good idea". And only something ultras favour, yet Labour condone it?: Removing worker protections, environmental protections, food standards, allowing the potential full deregulation of the UK, ...
So it's not a "good idea". And only something ultras favour, yet Labour condone it?: Removing worker protections, environmental protections, food standards, allowing the potential full deregulation of the UK, ...
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 3/ ...introducing swingeing tariffs, destroying the business model of entire sectors of the economy is beyond not being a good idea. It's an irreversible disaster, and as I will go on to show, Labour is the government's handmaiden in it.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 4/ Despite a no deal crash-out being disastrous Labour is doing nothing to stop it from happening - and for no gain, only reputational damage.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 5/ "And as soon as you start to think about it, there are plenty of good reasons for Starmer to keep schtum on the question of an extension."
I've been thinking about it a lot and none of the ostensible reasons stack up.
I've been thinking about it a lot and none of the ostensible reasons stack up.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 6/ "Most obviously, what would calling for one gain?"
Firstly - this is a false dichotomy. Starmer doesn't even need to call for one. All he needs to do is point out the danger of crashing out with no deal, to ask the government why talks are failing,
Firstly - this is a false dichotomy. Starmer doesn't even need to call for one. All he needs to do is point out the danger of crashing out with no deal, to ask the government why talks are failing,
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 7/ ...to hold the government to account for engineering the dropping of environmental, food, worker protections and standards. But Labour's leader hasn't asked a single question in PMQ's on Brexit. Labour is giving the government free rein.
But what would one gain?
But what would one gain?
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 8/ It would give cover to other organisations and businesses to urge the government for one. The CBI is now ditching the policy of requesting for an extension and is admitting defeat, hoping for a "good deal" in an impossible time frame instead.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 9/
"It’s also noticeable that, while both individual firms and the organisations that represent businesses are very worried about leaving without a trade deal, they aren’t exactly clamouring for an extension either. "
"It’s also noticeable that, while both individual firms and the organisations that represent businesses are very worried about leaving without a trade deal, they aren’t exactly clamouring for an extension either. "
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 10/ Partly because not a single English party is giving them any cover to come forward. Without any political backing, it is even more dangerous for them to speak up. 
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 13/ " But as always there’s a big difference between what people say they agree with when asked by a pollster and what they urgently, desperately want to happen."
What does this even mean? Is Bale arguing that polls and surveys are meaningless? That's a hell of a hill to die on.
What does this even mean? Is Bale arguing that polls and surveys are meaningless? That's a hell of a hill to die on.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 14/ As for the aspect of urgency - "urgently, desperately" - by not highlighting the time pressure, people have no idea how little time is left the "people" will only want an extension when it's too late to ask for one and Starmer hasn't even explained the risk (e.g. in PMQ's)
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 15/ ...that if an extension is not requested by end of June there will be a crash out. It's the job of the opposition to explain the risk the government is putting them in. But what do we get? Silence.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 16/
"the only advantage that would accrue to Starmer for having called for an extension now would be the right later on to say “I told you so” – never really the most persuasive argument in politics."
"the only advantage that would accrue to Starmer for having called for an extension now would be the right later on to say “I told you so” – never really the most persuasive argument in politics."
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 17/ let's try that out on some other issues: climate change. Starmer "I don't think there's any need to mitigate against climate change" - years later... Starmer: "What are you looking at me for?"
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 20/ "The only advantage that would accrue to Starmer".
This is false, morally wrong, and ignores the damage it will do to Starmer.
This is false, morally wrong, and ignores the damage it will do to Starmer.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 21/ Labour's strategy is purely based on a (frankly dubious) appraisal of optimum political point scoring, (based on no evidence, just supposition) rather than what is in the interests of the country.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 22/ We are talking about the removal of all regulations here: all environmental protections, all worker's rights, all food standards. But what matters is the "advantage to Starmer".
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 23/ And because it will be such a disaster, it won't be an advantage to Starmer, because he will be complicit, held jointly responsible for a no deal crash out.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 24/ Not only that but as the article starts out by saying - we all know he is being disingenuous and he is leveraging the situation for political point scoring, to the detriment of the national interest.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 25/
To the leavers he postures as one of them, content to have no extension. With his background does he really believe they'll buy this lie?
But there's a clue here as to the actual motivations for this folly....
To the leavers he postures as one of them, content to have no extension. With his background does he really believe they'll buy this lie?
But there's a clue here as to the actual motivations for this folly....
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 26/
1. Labour can only win by winning back the red wall. The red wall voters who switched to the Tories, although they will be hammered by no deal, are broadly anti FoM, pro Brexit. He needs to suck up to them, win them back to Labour.
1. Labour can only win by winning back the red wall. The red wall voters who switched to the Tories, although they will be hammered by no deal, are broadly anti FoM, pro Brexit. He needs to suck up to them, win them back to Labour.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 27/
2. Labour's factions fight like a sack of rats. The hard left despise Starmer: Perhaps he is buying their peace?
2. Labour's factions fight like a sack of rats. The hard left despise Starmer: Perhaps he is buying their peace?
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 28/ "Meanwhile, Starmer would spend the next six months being labelled not just a Remoaner but someone who preferred to retain free movement"
1. what the hell is wrong with Labour supporting free movement anyway? Isn't that a value Labour should be celebrating?
1. what the hell is wrong with Labour supporting free movement anyway? Isn't that a value Labour should be celebrating?
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 29/
2. "Remoaner" - implies the author excepts the language of the gaslighter: the right wing press who will demonise Labour whatever they do. There's nothing to lose here except credibility. And by not being authentic about values, Starmer is rapidly losing his.
2. "Remoaner" - implies the author excepts the language of the gaslighter: the right wing press who will demonise Labour whatever they do. There's nothing to lose here except credibility. And by not being authentic about values, Starmer is rapidly losing his.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 30/ Starmer has calculated the downside is a few ex-remain pro EU voters get alienated, but under FPTP he wins their votes anyway. They have nowhere else to go.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 31/ The question is, how many of us can stomach supporting a party which has switched to being even more hard Brexit than pre-ref Owen Paterson, Daniel Hannan - both of whom were advocating single market membership.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 32/ Even Farage talked about a Swiss type relationship. Starmer's position is extreme, even if the Overton window's shift has been so incremental, many haven't noticed.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 33/ Just as frighteningly, it has turned a normally rational, analytical commentariat mad apologising for his political mistakes.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 35/ Now Starmer is the Pirate, scuttling the ship.
This is akin to disaster socialism: "once there's real damage and pain, THEN the people will rise up and destroy capitalism. That'll show 'em."
This is akin to disaster socialism: "once there's real damage and pain, THEN the people will rise up and destroy capitalism. That'll show 'em."
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 36/ As for the argument by "ineffectuality" - "Labour can't do anything anyway - the Tories have an 80 seat majority".
Didn't Starmer get Johnson to u-turn on the NHS surcharge for non-UK citizens? Didn't Johnson concede on proxy voting for MP's? Not exactly ineffectual.
Didn't Starmer get Johnson to u-turn on the NHS surcharge for non-UK citizens? Didn't Johnson concede on proxy voting for MP's? Not exactly ineffectual.
@AliAliAfro @ProfTimBale 31/ In case you don't know what the government is proposing, what LPF's mean, what Starmer dare not mention, for starters, here's an article on what deregulation means for our food.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
