1/ At some point the government must have thought: "yeah let it spread, we can handle it. We can tolerate 500k to 1 million deaths. And the electorate won't mind either."
And then they thought. "Actually, maybe not"
And then they thought. "Actually, maybe not"
2/ What was their threshold for concurrent cases and deaths they thought they could ride out?
200% NHS capacity?
1000% NHS capacity?
Did their model underestimate deaths and severe cases by a factor of 100?
200% NHS capacity?
1000% NHS capacity?
Did their model underestimate deaths and severe cases by a factor of 100?
3/ And not even ordering tests in advance to check if herd immunity was occurring?
Their plan was to fly into the eye of the hurricane without even any instruments?
Their plan was to fly into the eye of the hurricane without even any instruments?
4/ I just don't get it. They thought China was a different planet where the rules of physics don't apply?
The government thought that the virus had greater potency against people of Chinese descent?
They thought because they, the government is racist, so is the virus?
The government thought that the virus had greater potency against people of Chinese descent?
They thought because they, the government is racist, so is the virus?
5/ It was utter British Exceptionalism as policy failure to not prepare.
Just like thinking that the UK could ride out a no deal brexit but far, far worse.
Total, gross negligence by the government resulting in thousands of deaths, chronic illness.
Just like thinking that the UK could ride out a no deal brexit but far, far worse.
Total, gross negligence by the government resulting in thousands of deaths, chronic illness.
6/ If their plan was herd immunity, then why didn't they follow through with it?
Did the original model project low death rates? If so, why did they believe it when China had 2.3% mortality, Iran was 6-7%?
Did the original model project low death rates? If so, why did they believe it when China had 2.3% mortality, Iran was 6-7%?
7/ So either their model was OBVIOUSLY wrong and they were too incompetent to notice it despite criticism by scientists outside government, OR they were going full Dr Strangelove: "we can tolerate 500k to 1million deaths" but then got cold feet.
8/ Look at the red line on this chart. That's intensive care unit capacity in the UK.
No strategy other than early containment avoids massively breaching capacity.
No strategy other than early containment avoids massively breaching capacity.
9/ So, a pretty gung ho, "I don't give a shit, let them die" strategy by the government, also overlooking the potential long term health impacts of even surviving covid 19, which are too depressing for me to go into as someone on Day 10 of infection by this vicious virus
