It is clear to me that the comments (and some
interpretation) yesterday do not reflect their current thinking.
Good!
So, brief🧵1/
-The WHO is doing detailed contact tracing (CT) in many nations.
-This symptom-free spread of this particular virus may not be adequately captured by CT. (In my view, CT substantially misses important fraction of this; we'll see in the future...)
-CT is necessary but it is NOT sufficient, both because of the phase we are in many places (too many cases) and the biology of this particular virus.
-CT does NOT QUANTIFY symptom-free spread, especially in a virus that apparently can do this for far longer than most respiratory viruses.
Whether this is a "walk-back" or a "clarification of what was really meant," is a bit besides the point, other than from a comms perspective.
What matters is that we agree...
Science will move us forward. Yes we will get things right and get things wrong. We're learning.
But we must always be careful generalizing one piece of data more broadly than is appropriate. That's a truism.
Symptom-free spread (asymptomatic + presymptomatic) is a big part of this story.
That we know.
Much to learn.
Thanks all! /fin