1/7 The two Koreas are technically still in a state of war after 70 years and an armistice has been in place since 1953. Whether or not leaflet balloons violate a recent inter-Korean agreement, they cannot help but be seen as provocative by the North because they don't know
2/7 what's really in the balloons. The North is always highly suspicious and permitting balloons to fly over an armistice line when a war has not ended is the height of stupidity. Moreover, my estimate is that the groups doing the balloons are the "sour grapes" crowd whose allies
3/7 most recently suffered major electoral defeat in the 4/15 National Assembly elections. Some of them, I believe, are largely responsible for the disinformation campaign fed to the media in April that Kim Jong Un was sick or had died (we even saw a fake video of his funeral
4/7 bier). The whole purpose of this crowd's efforts is to undermine President Moon's relationship with Kim and, frankly, Trump's relationship with Kim. For them, it's "back to the future," where hard-line policy toward the North is simply a critical tool in regaining dominance
5/7 in domestic politics. That's the real arena. What angry Palestinians are to Israeli domestic politics, so too is North Korean provocative behavior to South Korean domestic politics. Meanwhile, I think the real story is what is NK to do in the face of China's increasing
6/7 regional assertiveness? The DPRK cannot take its present independent economic and political sovereignty for granted because they may reach a point where their northern neighbor will effectively have the final say on all NK policy they insist affects China's realm of
7/7 influence. NK "bitches and complains" to SK but, in their utterly distasteful style, they also know that two Koreas working in tandem may be the only solution given Chinese political pressure (which we largely don't see) and the probabilities of U.S. retreat from East Asia.
(This is what I mean: North Korea is a function of ROK domestic politics) “President Moon must apologize to the people for the failed North Korean policies, and completely replace the security line,” United Future Party lawmakers said in their statement. koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20…
