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When we're thinking about the UK economy and trade we rarely acknowledge that 70-80% of trade in services and goods is part of global chains (sources OECD, UNCTAD). Time to think a bit more about that... 1/ oecd.org/trade/topics/g…
Large UK sectors most obviously part of global supply chains - automotive, aerospace, engineering, pharmaceuticals, legal, professional, financial services, retail. More mixed picture in food and drink, education, tourism, ICT... 2/
What do those global supply chains need? Ability to be able to move people and goods easily. Obviously the first is a global problem right now, but longer term the UK has policies to increase barriers to both - in goods through customs checks and diverging regulations 3/
The relative strength of UK financial and legal services means they're probably going to stay part of the global chains. ICT and pharmaceuticals research perhaps similar. But complex manufacturing sectors are hugely vulnerable, which is what we are seeing 4/
From a policy point of view if complex manufacturing is a priority we'd need to reverse course at least on leaving European (and de facto global) regulations. For some like cars we'd also need a deal with the EU. Tariff and regulatory barriers together are too high otherwise 5/
What of reshoring and particularly the China question? The problem we face is that China is an integral part of global supply chains. In the short term trying to change that too much is going to mean further disruption and cost. And significant efforts govs probably can't give 6/
We shouldn't though just focus on the multinationals - we have niche sectors to promote, and we also want to help smaller companies grow. The trade policy prescriptions are diverse, e.g. supporting scotch whisky against unfair legal practices isn't relevant for other sectors 7/
Policy should probably particularly emphasise growing international business to consumer sales. Trade agreements have started to have SME chapters, but so far they mean little. The UK should strengthen them and add consumer chapters to encourage this trade 8/
That's obviously a high level view of trade and the economy but unfortunately we're not having this debate. The twin cults of pure Brexit and global Britain equate debate with disobedience and remainerism. New thinking is not welcome. The economy will suffer if that continues 9/9
PS wouldn't it be nice if there was actually a response from those promoting alternatives? Noit holding my breath...
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