Thread by @gianlucac1

MANAGING COVID19 AND THE ECONOMY: 3d 1/n
There are basically 2 prevailing approaches to manage Covid19:
1)Lockdowns under different forms: general, selective (EU Asia)
2)Sweden and some USA States which is just social distancing and some form of NPI, in search of herd immunity

according to Sweden, and some USA States their approach would be the best compromise to allow the Economy to float while having the inevitable deaths that every other country will count when reaching herd immunity although at a later stage
2/n

i dont want to discuss here if Herd immunity make sense or not aka if the human being can produce a durable antibody.

Lets asssume it is the case.

I jus want to discuss about the economy.

The US/Swedish strategy is for now causing 2 of the highest deaths/mn figure
3/n

Supporters are saying that this will be equalized when other countries will reach the same prevalence.

This is not for now confirmed by seroprevalence data: Sweden and the USA do not show seroprevalence which substantially different to those of Italy, France, Spain, or SWI
4/n

Now lets concentrate on TIMING

It seems that for the USA and SWE achieving heard immunity (if any) while keeping infections and death below the Health System capacity (if possible) would take 1 year...at best (my estimate)
5/n

During this year other countries will have managed cases, lowered the level of Covid19 infection which is circulating, re-open the economies, and in some cases maybe eradicated the virus like in NZ.

For sure these countries will have some TTT system in place
6/n

Quarantine/Isolation will be mandatory for those who comes in from "highly infected" places . Like inbound passengers in NZ or HK now.

So during the next 12mo we presumably will have some countries which will have reduced the circulation of Covid19 and....
7/n

Sweden, USA and also Brasil whith higher number of daily cases and high level of infections.

Here is a brillant study bt @EvolveDotZoo which shows the importance of imported infections when looking at the spreading of Covid19 in the UK
virological.org/t/preliminary-…
8/n

and here is the 3d on the research by @pybus
(Bravo! great 3d and research) and a chart

9/n

https://twitter.com/EvolveDotZoo/status/1270389854203977728?s=20

So...while every country will have low number of cases, Sweden US and Brasil will have deliberately a high number of cases.

Now ask yourself: what is gonna happen to US, Brasilian and Swedish citizens when they try to travel to other countries, work and so on?
10/n

What will happen to US, Swedish, Brasilian economies if their infection rates are completely out of sync with the rest of the world in the next 12 mo?

Time will tell

But it doesnt look a very smart approach to me
11/11
fin

@ThManfredi @CrossWordsCW @AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloo