We’ve taken a look back over the last 10 years of voting intention and best PM data for @timesredbox. Here are some of the top tidbits from the last decade #thisisnotnormal
However, chaos with E̵d̵ ̵M̵i̵l̵i̵b̵a̵n̵d̵ Theresa May then ensued…
Best PM rating:
May, pre GE2017 – highest 54% / lowest 43%
May, post GE2017 – highest 40% / lowest 23%
Corbyn, pre GE2017 – highest 32% / lowest 13%
Corbyn, post GE2017 – highest 39% / lowest 15%
It’s hard to remember that just over a year ago the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems had both led our Westminster voting intention polls, relegating the Tories and Labour into third place #thisisnotnormal
About a year ago also saw “don’t know” score its highest ever total in the best PM question – 55%. The candidate of uncertainty has won the contest 114 out of 237 times over the past decade
The coronavirus crisis has severely knocked Boris Johnson’s ratings, and Keir Starmer is now fast closing the gap
Best PM rating, 17 Apr/19 May/30 May:
Johnson – 46%, 39%, 37% ↘️↘️↘️
Starmer – 22%, 27%, 32% ↗️↗️↗️
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While Britons generally think the police have handled the riots well, they lack confidence in their ability to protect people and property from further unrest
A lot/some confidence: 38%
Not a lot/no confidence: 58%
When asked to rank parties in order of preference, Labour are still Britons’ overall favourite party, but the Lib Dems ultimately have broader popularity – being more people’s second or third favourite party.
Ranked first
Labour 28%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 18%
Greens 17%
Lib Dems 13%
Ranked first, second or third
Lib Dems 79%
Labour 70%
Greens 60%
Conservatives 43%
Reform UK 41%
Overall, fewer than one in five Britons are consistently right-wing in their party preferences, i.e. rank the Conservatives and Reform UK ahead of every other party, compared to 40% who rank all major progressive parties ahead of them.
Having asked the public to rank the main parties, how often does a given party get ranked higher than other parties? Labour are always preferred by more people in every combination, while Reform UK are always the less-preferred party in their 'head-to-heads'.
Labour 65% vs Reform UK 35%
Labour 61% vs Conservatives 39%
Labour 58% vs Greens 42%
Labour 52% vs Lib Dems 48%
Lib Dems 65% vs Reform UK 35%
Lib Dems 63% vs Greens 37%
Lib Dems 62% vs Conservatives 38%
Greens 59% vs Reform UK 41%
Greens 57% vs Conservatives 43%
How Britain voted in 2024: our study of 35,000 voters conducted since the election breaks down the election result by age, gender, education, past vote and a host of other factors 👇
Age continues to be a key factor in how Britons vote, with younger adults mostly backing left wing parties and older adults tending to vote for right wing parties.
How 18-24 year olds voted
Labour: 41%
Green: 18%
Lib Dem: 16%
Reform UK: 9%
Conservative: 8%
Other: 8%
How 70+ year olds voted
Conservative: 46%
Labour: 20%
Reform UK: 15%
Lib Dem: 11%
Green: 3%
Other: 5%
Our latest MRP shows Reform UK winning five seats, including a comfortable win for Nigel Farage in Clacton, with a further four seats in which they are within five points of the leading party
Reform UK winning in…
Clacton
Great Yarmouth
Louth and Horncastle
Ashfield
Basildon and Billericay
Reform UK close 2nd in…
Barnsley North
South Holland and The Deepings
Havant
Folkestone and Hythe