We’ve taken a look back over the last 10 years of voting intention and best PM data for @timesredbox. Here are some of the top tidbits from the last decade #thisisnotnormal
However, chaos with E̵d̵ ̵M̵i̵l̵i̵b̵a̵n̵d̵ Theresa May then ensued…
Best PM rating:
May, pre GE2017 – highest 54% / lowest 43%
May, post GE2017 – highest 40% / lowest 23%
Corbyn, pre GE2017 – highest 32% / lowest 13%
Corbyn, post GE2017 – highest 39% / lowest 15%
It’s hard to remember that just over a year ago the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems had both led our Westminster voting intention polls, relegating the Tories and Labour into third place #thisisnotnormal
About a year ago also saw “don’t know” score its highest ever total in the best PM question – 55%. The candidate of uncertainty has won the contest 114 out of 237 times over the past decade
The coronavirus crisis has severely knocked Boris Johnson’s ratings, and Keir Starmer is now fast closing the gap
Best PM rating, 17 Apr/19 May/30 May:
Johnson – 46%, 39%, 37% ↘️↘️↘️
Starmer – 22%, 27%, 32% ↗️↗️↗️
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18% of Britons say they are likely to consider voting for a new left-wing party led by Jeremy Corbyn
However, this is less than would consider voting for the existing major parties and has caveats... 🧵
Just 32% of those who would consider voting for a Corbyn-led party say it is the party they are most likely to consider voting for, including only 9% saying it is the only party they would consider voting for (of the main national parties)
Top 5 reasons that 26% of 2024 Conservatives have defected to Reform UK in the year since the 2024 election
1. Trust them more on immigration: 56% 2. All other parties are worse: 41% 3. Better at standing up for people like me: 36% 4. Closer to my values: 25% 5. Better placed to win next election: 24%
Compared to those sticking with the party, Conservative defectors to Reform UK are more likely to be men (58% vs 44%), more likely to have voted Leave (80% vs 61%) and are older (83% are over 50 vs 75%)
While Conservative losses to Reform UK are more likely than loyalists to see immigration as a top issue facing the country (88% vs 64%), the two groups do not otherwise differ hugely on what are currently the most pressing problems in the UK
🧵/ Where does the British public stand on transgender rights in 2024/5?
The 4th study in our series shows that scepticism has grown across the board over the last two years, including among groups typically more sympathetic to trans people
On transgender social/legal status, % of Britons think...
Social
Should be able to identify as a different gender: 49% (-6 from 2022)
Should not be able to identify as a different gender: 35% (+10)
Legal
Law should allow people to change legal gender: 34% (-6)
Law should not allow people to change legal gender: 48% (+11)
As many Britons now say you should be able to change *neither* your social nor legal gender as say you should be able to change *both*
Should be able to change neither: 33% (+10 from 2022)
Should be able to change both: 32% (-6)
Change social, but not legal: 10% (-1)
Change social, unsure on legal: 7% (+1)
Unsure on both: 11% (-5)
Other combos: 8% (+1)