Thread by @cmclymer

You might be wondering what's going on with the Senate and if we can win it. I've drawn up a quick and simple explainer for folks who don't have time to read through a bunch of electoral analysis. Here are three levels for Dems, from best to worst odds. (thread)

Before we start, some reminders: about 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every two years. Senators serve six-year terms which are staggered across three "classes". In 2020, we'll have 35 seats up, all of Class 2 plus special elections in Arizona and Georgia.

The special election in Arizona is to serve out the remainder of the term John McCain won in 2016. The winner will only serve until 2022 (six years) and then may choose to run for reelection to a full term. It's currently held by Republican Martha McSally.

The special election in Georgia is to serve out remainder of Johnny Isaakson's term, which ends in 2022. Kelly Loeffler was appointed to the seat. There is no primary for this. Dems and GOP are running on the same ballot. Top 2 vote getters advance to a runoff in Jan, if needed.

(Quick aside: there are TWO U.S. Senate elections in Georgia this year -- the special election for one seat and a regular election for the other. Don't ask me how many times this has happened in our country's history. I have no idea.)

The Senate is currently controlled by the GOP, 53-47. So, assuming Biden defeats Trump, we would need to win three net seats to control the Senate (with VP tiebreaker). If Biden lost, we would need four. Most likely moot since if Biden loses, we've probably lost the Senate, too.

LEVEL ONE -- THE ESSENTIALS: the races at this level are critical. We basically can't take back the Senate without them. The good news is that our chances are SO much better now than last year. Let's check out what that looks like...

Those beige states (AZ, CO, ME, NC) are the widely acknowledged battlegrounds. Each are held by GOP senators and considered vulnerable to flip to Democrats.

As of this week, here are the aggregate polling advantages for the battlegrounds (via RealClearPolitics):

AZ: Kelly (D) w/ +9.8 over McSally (R)
CO: Hickenlooper (D) w/ +13 over Gardner (R)
ME: Gideon (D) w/ +2.5 over Collins (R)
NC: Cunningham (D) w/ +0.2 over Tillis (R)

Polling is chaotic and people tend to misunderstand what it means. It's an estimate with a margin-of-error. Folks typically ignore the margin-of-error and then get pissed when there's a result that defies predictions but falls within that margin-of-error. Don't be that person.

The aggregates from RealClearPolitics are not fresh. Colorado, in particular, is based off polling from last August. There have been polls since then that look different but still give Hickenlooper a substantial advantage.

BOTTOM LINE FOR THIS LEVEL: If the GOP wins all the seats they're supposed to win and Dems win all the seats they're supposed to win, it comes down to the four battleground races. We need to win three of those. We're either leading or neck-and-neck in all four. Decent odds.

With that in mind, DONATE:

AZ (@CaptMarkKelly) -- bit.ly/3hoI0vY
CO (@Hickenlooper) -- bit.ly/3cWgJ0G
ME (@SaraGideon) -- bit.ly/37qC2WR
NC (@CalforNC) -- bit.ly/3cVg9Ac

LEVEL TWO -- THE UPSETS: even if we win 3/4 of the battlegrounds, wouldn't it be great to have some wiggle room for critical legislation or some surprise upsets if we lose more than one battleground? Let's look at the eight races at this level.

The eight dark gray states are The Upsets. If we win one, things are looking good. If we win two, that likely clinches the Senate. If we win three, Dems are having a VERY good night. These range in likelihood of pickup by analysts, and the lack of polling complicates things.

Out of this group, going solely off recent polling and fundraising (which could change quickly), Dems' best chances are in Montana, where outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock (D) has a slight edge in polling over incumbent Steve Daines (R).

You might be wondering why Montana isn't considered a battleground. It's the lack of polling. There isn't enough data for a high degree of confidence. In a matter of months, Montana *might* be considered a battleground w/ more data.

The same goes for this somewhat less competitive group (most recent polling):

IA: Greenfield (D) by +2 over Ernst (R)
KS: Bollier (D) basically tied vs. GOP candidates
KY: McGrath (D) by +1 over McConnell (R)
SC: Harrison (D) tied w/ Graham (R)

[con't]

GA (regular): Ossoff (D) by +2 over Perdue (R)
GA (special): Dem candidates break even or are slightly behind in head-to-head vs. likely GOP nominee Collins

And these two states close out the group by being in shouting distance:

TX: Hegar (D) and West (D) are running about -12 versus Cornyn (R) but he still looks vulnerable among moderates

AL: Jones (D) is running behind in double digits vs. GOP candidates but polling is from Feb.

It's fair to note that McGrath just reported $19m in the bank as of June 3rd. That's enormous. Keep an eye on her campaign.

DONATE:

AL: @DougJones - bit.ly/2MT1ueh
IA: @GreenfieldIowa - bit.ly/2UBlBSu
GA (regular): @Ossoff - bit.ly/2MUxGy1
KS: @BarbaraBollier - bit.ly/2MStb74
KY: @AmyMcGrathKY - bit.ly/2XVJFSc
SC: @HarrisonJaime - bit.ly/2zoUDGi

DONATE (con't):

MT: @stevebullockmt -- bit.ly/2UFJ6dj

TX and GA (special) are still up in the air for the Dem nominee. Once those are official, I'll post fundraising links. Quick disclaimer that I'm strongly supporting Hegar in Texas.

BOTTOM LINE FOR THIS LEVEL: There is healthy optimism for a few pickups in this group, particularly Montana, but there are also about a thousand lifetimes between now and November. To reiterate: if we win one or two states out of this group, things are looking great.

LEVEL THREE -- THE LONGSHOTS:

Ten solid red states and likely GOP hold Alaska.

Fight for every seat, no doubt. We should be supporting the Senate nominees in these states while also being aware of the odds. If we win ANY of these, Dems are having an historic night.

BOTTOM LINE FOR THE THREAD: We can very much win the Senate this year. It's in our sights. But we have to work for it. We have to donate to these campaigns and volunteer for them. Let's get to work!