My colleagues in @cmmid_lshtm have been working since January to help grow the COVID-19 evidence base. A lot of this analysis has now been peer-reviewed, so I’d like to take a moment to share some of their work... 1/
@timwrussell @HellewellJoel @Jarvis_Stats et al combined multiple datasets to provide an early estimate an overall symptomatic fatality risk of 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3–2.7) and infection fatality risk of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2–1.3) eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… 2/
@yangliubeijing @StfnFlsch @sbfnk et al estimated that 23-46% of transmission came from presymptomatic individuals, depending on level case finding wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-58 3/
@seabbs @sbfnk et al estimated that the early reproduction number was likely to be between 2-3 wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-17 4/
@HellewellJoel @seabbs @rozeggo et al looked at feasibility of controlling COVID through isolation and contact tracing, estimating that additional measures would likely be required alongside tracing to ensure control thelancet.com/journals/langl… 5/
@BQuilty @samclifford @StfnFlsch et al analysed airport temperature screening, finding that thermal scanning at arrival would likely miss the majority of incoming infected travellers - follow up would therefore be crucial eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… 6/
Early analysis with @timwrussell @rozeggo et al estimated a substantial decline in transmission in Wuhan coinciding with control measures, with 93-96% still susceptible at end Jan. Also estimated risk of outbreaks establishing in other locations thelancet.com/journals/lanin… 7/
@TeebzR @KevinvZandvoort et al looked at the implications for outbreak dynamics if the first reported cases are deaths, as happened in Iran in mid-Feb: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-78 8/
Mark Jit, @TeebzR et al used early UK hospitalisation data to estimate a doubling time of around 3 days and tens of thousands of new infections per day by mid-March eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280… 9/
Work with @_nickdavies @rozeggo @amyg225 et al estimated that substantial physical distancing measures would be required to control COVID in UK: thelancet.com/journals/lanpu… 10/
@kiesha_prem @yangliubeijing @petrakle et al analysed how changes in social mixing reduced transmission in Wuhan, and the risk of an increase in transmission if measures were lifted suddenly or prematurely thelancet.com/journals/lanpu… 11/
@Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduced R to below 1 in UK: bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… 12/
There are plenty of other projects ongoing, and preprints/data/code are available here: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/. And, of course, there are many other modelling groups working globally, whose results have been invaluable for informing our work: 13/13
