Thread by @GoodwinMJ

"It's a black Wednesday moment"
"Boris just lost the next election"
"This is a total game changer".

Cummings was 2.5 weeks ago

Today? 8 point Conservative lead

Conservative 45% (=)
Labour 37% (+2)
Lib Dem 6% (=)

YouGov June 11-12

Scandals rarely have the effect we think they will. That's one of the main lessons of the past decade.

I'd add that quite a few folks are now reading more than they should into leadership scores. Why? Who knows. Maybe because is only dimension where Lab ahead. But do remember that relationship between leadership ratings & election outcomes is not as strong as many are implying

Starmer is doing what should be doing. Mopping up easy low hanging fruit like disgruntled Lib Dems & Lab leaners who loathed Corbyn. But that is all largely superfluous to the two critical questions:

1 Scotland?
2 Non-London pro-Brexit England?

Who's going to answer those?