Matt Goodwin Profile picture
Jun 13, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
"It's a black Wednesday moment"
"Boris just lost the next election"
"This is a total game changer".

Cummings was 2.5 weeks ago

Today? 8 point Conservative lead

Conservative 45% (=)
Labour 37% (+2)
Lib Dem 6% (=)

YouGov June 11-12
Scandals rarely have the effect we think they will. That's one of the main lessons of the past decade.
I'd add that quite a few folks are now reading more than they should into leadership scores. Why? Who knows. Maybe because is only dimension where Lab ahead. But do remember that relationship between leadership ratings & election outcomes is not as strong as many are implying
Starmer is doing what should be doing. Mopping up easy low hanging fruit like disgruntled Lib Dems & Lab leaners who loathed Corbyn. But that is all largely superfluous to the two critical questions:

1 Scotland?
2 Non-London pro-Brexit England?

Who's going to answer those?

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More from @GoodwinMJ

Jul 4
Election day. Here are some of our most read (and right!) pieces on the UK 2024 general election. 1/ we called the summer election #GE2024 #GeneralElection2024…
2/ In July 2022 we explained why Rishi Sunak would likely be a disaster for post-Brexit conservatism
#ge2024 #GeneralElection2024…
3/ In August 2023, we highlighted the enormous space in British politics that exists for a party like ... Nigel Farage and Reform #ge2024 #GeneralElection2024…
Read 19 tweets
Feb 7
NEW POST. Them Vs. US. Elites are now dangerously out-of-touch from millions of people who surround them. Findings from a new study
On climate change, willingness to pay for Net Zero, individual freedom, trust in government, support for the expert class, & political loyalties, the gulf between the Elites & Masses is enormous (esp. between elite uni grads & voters). As I argued 👇…
I write a lot about out-of-touch elites, about how we are now in the hands of a new ruling class, a "luxury belief class" (ht @robkhenderson) which simply does not share the values of ordinary people and does not make room for their voice in our national debate.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 27, 2023
This is the first in a two-part series on what I think we’ve learned about politics in 2023 and —coming in the next few days- what I think 2024 will deliver.

Here are the first five ...
1. In aftermath of October 7th it has become clear the policy of multiculturalism is not working Image
2. It is no longer possible to deny there is a major problem in Western (mainly elite) universities. They are in the midst of a full blown crisis Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 24, 2023
NEW POST. Merry Christmas, Friends. Thanks for supporting our Substack community. Here are our 10 most read posts of 2023 ...…
10. The Crisis We Can't Discuss…
9. What I Told a Cabinet Minister…
Read 12 tweets
Nov 9, 2023
NEW POST. Islamo-Fascism and the Woke Left. Why many Brits now fear their values, history, and identity are being attacked on two fronts at the same time.…
Both are profoundly illiberal belief systems, prioritising religious or fixed-group racial, sexual, and gender identities above individual rights
Both are dismissive of things which underpin & define liberal societies, including not just individual rights but tolerance, pluralism, free speech, and the values of the Enlightenment which prioritise reason, truth, evidence, and scientific knowledge
Read 9 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
Look at the (American) 18-24 year olds Image
I've already written about the generational shifts in the UK here & discussed recently with @ClareFoges…
And here Image
Read 5 tweets

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