Matthew Goodwin Profile picture
Academic | Speaker | Writer Book https://t.co/hfC78gDTQp Mailing list https://t.co/qlQl243FBv
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29 Jun 20
Look at where Labour MPs & Labour members are compared to voters

This is a big reason why Labour's Red Wall collapsed

When it comes to values they are a world away from average voters and 2019 switchers, though ALL MPs are generally more liberal than voters

ht @UKandEU
You can see a similar tension on Conservative side -Conservative MPs & members are right than voters when it comes to economics

Conservatives are fortunate in that, for now, lots of voters put values ahead of their wallets

But this is why 'levelling up' agenda is so important
Read 3 tweets
24 Jun 20
58% of Americans would like confederate statues to remain in place

71% would like authorities to block attempts to destroy confederate statues

Source: Harris Jun 17-18 Image
For those asking you can download the poll info here. Not seen regional breaks yet
mcusercontent.com/ca678077bc522b…
Read 2 tweets
16 Jun 20
Munira Mirza is interested in data and evidence. That is why critical race theorists are hostile -- they are being asked to provide evidence for their ideological claims.
In UK the relationship between race & disadvantage is FAR more complex than some suggest. For e.g., minorities shd not be treated as uniform group, lots of positive trends at work, disadvantage in diff spheres cuts across diff groups in diff ways, need nuance & data-led policy
My view is that if there is to be a new commission or study of racial inequality in UK then it shd include ppl who prioritise evidence. There is a middle way through but trying to shout down somebody simply because they question existing narratives is not the way forward imo.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jun 20
How Britain's "Statue Wars" became a proxy for our deeper values divide - a short thread
As much work has now shown, Britain's 2016 vote for Brexit was only one symptom of a much deeper values divide that has been rumbling through Britain (and other democracies) for a few decades

In very broad terms, the divide is between "liberals" and "social conservatives"
One question that is now hanging over British politics is whether Brexit and its final resolution would bring that divide to a close or instead cement it while an array of other issues -immigration, gender, diversity agenda, etc.- would breathe new life into it
Read 16 tweets
12 Jun 20
The Conservative Party is winning elections but losing the culture war.
I say "culture war" because -increasingly- Britain is importing US-style "culture war" politics.

Our dispute over Brexit was one symptom; statues and monuments another

We are following our American cousins into a polarisation that is rooted far more in our values & identities
Underpinning all of this are competing interpretations of who we are as a people and nation

One one side views our history as a source of shame and through a very narrow lens of oppression and racism

These accounts often begin and end with Empire
Read 6 tweets
9 Jun 20
Yes let's go after the guy who presided over universal schooling, secret ballot, weakened aristocracy, ended landlord oppression, made unions legal, home rule .. As a historian noted, for every 1 picture in a working-class house there'd be 10 of Gladstone

liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool…
well, ended landlord oppression is a bit of a stretch I suppose but land reform, Irish Church Act, Reform Act moved things along
Look how quickly the university caved. That's the other half of this story.
Read 3 tweets
8 Jun 20
New. Clear majority of British voters (56%) think we should allow Hong Kong holders of British passports to live and work in the UK with a pathway to citizenship. Conservatives (57%) Labour (57%) Lib Dem (65%) Brexit Party (52%), old (59%) & young (52%)

Redfield & Wilton June 3
As some are pointing out the age splits here are interesting and suspect some generational effects at work. Today's 70 year old born 1950 and would have seen Hong Kong as part of Britain until the handover in 1997
Read 2 tweets
7 Jun 20
What is most significant on days like today is not the mob running amok but the deafening silence of the otherwise reasonable 'soft left' which either agrees, feels intimidated or thinks, mistakenly, this helps their cause. It doesn't. This only breeds polarisation.
What I would personally like to see from leaders & opinion formers is outlining way forward that curbs polarisation. It is possible to say "this grievance is legitimate but those actions are wrong". I see lots of former but much less of the latter.
Read 2 tweets
3 Jun 20
Ever since the vote for Brexit we've been told that "Little England" is turning in on itself & away from the world. Today, Britain states its willingness to enact one of the biggest changes to its visa system in history to help the persecuted people of Hong Kong
You can read the full piece by Boris Johnson here:
bit.ly/2XTWU4x
Read 2 tweets
31 May 20
New. "Which of following statements comes closest to the EU's role in your country during coronavirus?"

"The EU helped my country"
Germans 40%
French 41%
Italians 30%

"The EU has not helped my country"
Germans 60%
French 59%
Italians 70%

Redfield & Wilton May 22-25
"What is your interpretation of how the EU and member states responded to the coronavirus crisis"

"Member states acted together, as one"
Germans 18%
French 13%
Italians 9%

"Member states acted separately, on their own"
Germans 71%
French 73%
Italians 83%
"There should have been more economic support from the EU & less affected member states to help badly affected states"

"Agree"
Germans 45%
French 69%
Italians 85%

"Neither agree nor disagree"
Germans 34%
French 21%
Italians 10%

"Disagree"
Germans 12%
French 3%
Italians 2%
Read 5 tweets
28 May 20
Who would make best Prime Minister? -by class

Upper/middle class

Boris Johnson 39%
Keir Starmer 32%
Johnson's lead = 7 points

Working class

Boris Johnson 40%
Keir Starmer 21%

Johnson's lead = 19 points ⬅️⬅️⬅️⬅️
From latest question, YouGov, download for yourself here:
docs.cdn.yougov.com/246il6g7ik/The…
Remember when certain analysts argued that the shift to a second referendum wouldn't have consequences?
Read 5 tweets
14 May 20
A remarkable shift in British public attitudes in just four years. Goes to show how giving people a sense of control and influence over issues can lead to positive social change
Sorry I should have said I picked that up from @b_judah
Several factors likely going on here: Remain voters becoming a little more pro-immigration post-Brexit, like Democrats post-Trump, a general drift in attitudes, salience falling and Leavers having sense of control, "pressure valve" provided by referendum & subsequent results
Read 3 tweets
11 May 20
*whispers* on Twitter that yes gvt is struggling but do try & keep perspective. 51% approve of how Johnson doing his job incl. 67% of pensioners. His party averages 20 pt lead over Labour since Starmer took over incl. 24-pt lead among workers. On "best PM?" Johnson leads by 17pts
A lot of projection is going on. Basic view in latest polls appears to be: "yes government could have prepared better for this crisis but we are generally willing to give them the benefit of the doubt". Twitter not so much. Brexit fault lines also visible in much of the response.
Read 2 tweets
20 Apr 20
The Corbyn legacy

The only region that puts Labour ahead of the Conservatives is London ... which Labour already controls

Everywhere else is a car crash; 34 pts behind in southern non-London England; 27 pts in Midlands; 25 pts among the working class ..

docs.cdn.yougov.com/elkhze55wg/The…
To be fair, many of these problems, like Labour's weakness in England and gradual loss of support in blue-collar areas, can be traced back much further than Corbyn. But they've become far more entrenched since 2016
@Keir_Starmer and team would do well to reflect critically on what has gone wrong and -crucially- not just listen to same old voices who will tell Labour what they want to hear.
Read 3 tweets
31 Mar 20
If I liked the Sopranos, loved Breaking Bad and worshipped Mad Men, but didn't dig the magic and dragons nonsense of Game of Thrones and think Ozark is a bit blah then what show should I watch next?
Some of the replies are taking me back. Season 1 of Gomorrah and Season 2 of Succession might be some of the finest television ever made. Except Seasons 2 and 3 of Mad Men. And maybe the final season of Sopranos.
If you share my tastes then the consensus seems to be: revisit The Wire immediately, detour into Peaky Blinders, then The Americans & then slide into Better Call Saul followed by Babylon Berlin and then possibly Giri Haji. And then maybe watch succession all over again
Read 3 tweets
28 Mar 20
New. And wow.

Conservatives 54%
Labour 26%

"No conservative government has ever had such a poll rating"

72% satisfied with Johnson
73% satisfied with the Gvt
77% satisfied with @RishiSunak

Source: NumberCruncher Politics
bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/ar…
*Your regular reminder that Twitter is not representative of the nation!*
Read 2 tweets
23 Mar 20
How will #coronavirus impact on politics? The short answer -the honest answer- is that we do not know. But we can still ask some questions that will help to organise our thinking. Here are a few for starters ...

/thread
Will the combined political, economic and health crises deliver another body blow -and perhaps a fatal one- to globalisation and the liberal world order, which has already been in retreat for much of the past decade?
Or will it provide a new raison d'être for liberalism, reviving public support for individual freedom and the argument that amid large-scale global challenges like pandemics and climate change the only possible future is a multilateral one?
Read 21 tweets
16 Mar 20
December 31: WHO hears of unknown virus in Wuhan

January 31: whole genome of #COVID19 is sequenced

March 16, today: the 1st dose of a possible vaccine given to human

Say what you want about individual governments but look at what we achieved in just 68 days

Remarkable
This happened today and is only one of several trials already underway
Read 2 tweets
16 Mar 20
New advice from UK government: "we are approaching the fast growth part of upward curve. Cases could double every 5-6 days". If you have symptoms stay at home for 14 days. Do not go out. Ideally ask others for help #coronavirus
Boris Johnson: "Everyone now must stop all non-essential contact. Everyone must now work at home if they can. Especially over-70s, pregnant women and those with underlying conditions"
"In a few days we will go further. The vulnerable will be shielded from others for 12 weeks".
Read 22 tweets
12 Mar 20
UK moves to "delay" phase - if you develop a new, continuous cough and a temperature stay at home for seven days. The most dangerous period for all is still some weeks away #coronavirus
Government advice is NOT to call 111 if you develop mild symptoms. Look on the Web.
Overall UK mortality rate is "1% or lower" overall but a bit higher among older and vulnerable groups
Read 5 tweets
8 Feb 20
Further to my earlier tweet on the good news that so many EU nationals are (a) applying to remain in UK and that (b) vast majority are doing so here is the official government release (bit.ly/39g2OkH) and here is the link to the official data (bit.ly/2Ssqn2V)
What I'm (clearly) increasingly struggling with on Twitter is a specific strand of thought, often found on the left, that ignores anything positive in favour of catastrophising

For 4 years we've been told the UK is racist & can't wait to kick everybody out. Just. Not. True.
In any society there will be administrative blunders & ugly extremism. But I've been struck by total refusal of many to highlight positive shifts

Prejudice? Down
Immigration concern? Down
Attitudes? More positive
& given scale of task gvt doing ok job processing apps to remain
Read 13 tweets