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1/ I've spent a lot of time thinking about the future of books. I had an interesting discussion about what exactly a book is in 2020.

I say this as a book lover and author of seven books. amazon.com/Tren-Griffin/e… What are the key differences between blogs, tweetstorms and books?
2/ As an example, I wrote 300 blog posts at 25iQ. To raise money for charity, I selected ~ 40 blog posts, removed them from the web and published them in traditional book format. The essays were professionally edited, but ~ the same. What's the difference? amazon.com/Lessons-Entrep…
3/ If your goal is to make a positive difference, is a writing a traditional book (and getting it published) the best approach?

We bought back our copyright on this book from Harper Collins and now give it away for free. Is this book a blog now? 25iq.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/the_gl…
4/ Fixing the link to the free blog/book hopefully: 25iq.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/the_gl….

One issue I have with writing more blog posts is that few people have read the 300 post I have already written at 25IQ. 25iq.com/featured-indiv… One issue I have with book is few people read any more
5/ "In 2018 the average annual expenditure on reading per consumer unit in the United States amounted to $107.9. Americans aged 20 to 34 spend < 7 minutes per day reading." bls.gov/regions/midwes…

This is reading spending in all forms including books, newspapers, magazines etc.
6/ For a writer, deciding what format to use is a resource optimization problem. How do you effectively allocate your scarce time? Book? Blog? Paid newsletter? Tweetstorm or tweets? The number of writers who earn a living income is shrinking. Success has always been a power law.
7/ Advertising supported writing or reading in addition to ~$110 spent per capita in cash? A Benedict Evans chart shows the trend:
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Tren Griffin
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1/ The microeconomics of a software as a service (SaaS) business evolved from cable and mobile. John Malone invented what is the most common business model for SaaS.

"It’s not about earnings, it’s about wealth creation and levered cash-flow growth." 25iq.com/2014/11/02/a-d…
2/ "Businesses that invest heavily in intangible assets and have high returns on those investments often produce poor profits, or may even lose money. The income statement looks bad, the balance sheet looks better, and value creation looks great." morganstanley.com/im/publication…
3/ Some businesses have accounting losses and create value. Some business have accounting losses and destroy value. Unit economics help you understand the difference.

Never forget: free cash flow is the number to care about. Other numbers can be about ways to get free cash flow.
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Tren Griffin
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1/ Jeremy Grantham: "There's always been two major approaches to managing money: (1) deduce what the market thinks and look for unappreciated changes, good and bad and bet against the market. And bet your analysis has picked things up that the marketplace has missed."
2/ "(2) use contrarian indicators like price to book, PE, price to cash fow, price to [find assets] that the market loved so much that it was constantly overpaying a litle bit and underpaying for those nasty cyclicals."
3/ "Historical aversion to cheap stocks disappeared because they acquired the reputaton for having won. The quants understood these were factors that worked. And indeed academics wrote it up and got a lot of credit for it. And anyway, that was the past."
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Tren Griffin
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Journalists and some analysts tend to love P/E ratio charts since they are easy to create from very available data. They fill space on a web page and seem useful! Michael Mauboussin explains why it is easy to reach broken conclusions from the chart here: expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
25iQuiz:

Are interest rates different now than they were during the Internet bubble?

"The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates. Any investment is worth all the cash you're going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back." Buffett
25iQuiz: Did Buffett refer to cash or earnings in the quote in the previous tweet?

When you visit a grocery this weekend will they accept "earnings" as payment? Will other vendors?

Is it fun to pretend a valuation based on a multiple doesn't bury a terminal value assumption?
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