A huge shadow of Art 370 decision creating Ladakh as UT over talks with China where no immediate diplomatic leverage with India of an important event is contributing to prolonged standoff. I look at the context and explain the fears. indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Since August 2019, China has repeatedly argued - in its statement, in UNSC, in foreign ministry presser and now with this article - that India had "violated the agreement on maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas between the two countries” i.e. the 1993 agreement.
It is now being used by the Chinese side as a pretext for the lack of adherence to existing agreements, protocols and SOPs during the current crisis, where we have witnessed clashes and injuries. The underlying argument is that India altered the status quo first on 5 August 2019.
In 2013 and 2014, the standoffs got over in a couple of weeks after diplomatic talks. In 2017 at Doklam, it was 10 weeks. In all three instances, Delhi had the leverage of a diplomatic event whose success was important for the Chinese which facilitated an early resolution.
In 2013, first foreign visit by Premier Li Keqiang; in 2014, President Xi's visit after BJP came to power; in 2017, BRICS summit in Xiamen. I spoke to former diplomats who handled these and they said that this time, there was no such event which could help an early resolution.
[n/n] Finally, as China refuses to engage on Pangong Tso, there are fears that Beijing is actually following 'Two-steps forward, One-step backward' strategy. It will sound reasonable by vacating Galwan & Hot Springs but will grab fresh territory in Pangong Tso.
