Too much of virus policy has coalesced around the twin pillars of Lockdowns and Curves.
People look at Curves and then either go ‘the Curve is bad so we need more Lockdowns’, or its ‘okay’ so we can release Lockdowns.
This all papers over & ignores what GOES INTO these Curves.
People look at Curves and then either go ‘the Curve is bad so we need more Lockdowns’, or its ‘okay’ so we can release Lockdowns.
This all papers over & ignores what GOES INTO these Curves.
Consciously or not, people have settled into a one-dimensional ‘hydraulic’ model of how to control a virus.
-Aggregate the total volume of (cases, or hospitalizations, or deaths)
-Apply one single policy dial you either crank up or down (Lockdowns, essentially)
-Aggregate the total volume of (cases, or hospitalizations, or deaths)
-Apply one single policy dial you either crank up or down (Lockdowns, essentially)
If you want fewer (cases/deaths), you do more Lockdown. If (cases/deaths) have gone down, you can ease up on Lockdown. Like a dial on thermostat.
Hence we get questions/complaints like ‘but how can we Reopen if cases ticked up!!’
What I suggest is this is all very dumb.
Hence we get questions/complaints like ‘but how can we Reopen if cases ticked up!!’
What I suggest is this is all very dumb.
From the POV that Lockdowns smash Curves, it should be very puzzling that anyone still gets infected with this thing. Incubation is supposedly 5-14 days or something. Lockdowns have been 2 months or more. This is a puzzle that people should *think* and *ask questions* about.
Like, who on earth is still getting newly-infected with this thing? Why? How? Where? What life situation?
Shouldn’t someone...check? Look into that? Do a deep dive and drill down into what goes INTO these Curves?
Hard to do if all you look at is the Curve & go More Lockdown
Shouldn’t someone...check? Look into that? Do a deep dive and drill down into what goes INTO these Curves?
Hard to do if all you look at is the Curve & go More Lockdown
Maybe (for example, just making this up) you’d find the bulk of new infections happening to those categorized as ‘essential workers’ (proverbial meatpackers), & their households. If that were true, what the fuck good is Lockdown doing at all? It doesn’t even get at the problem!
After all, for Lockdown to even ‘work’ at all, you’d need *some* people doing *some* stuff, or the Lockdown’d are all gonna just starve. If those are the people perpetuating the epidemic (I have no idea), Lockdown is inherently flawed as a strategy.
Or at least, you’d need to append some Meatpacker-Protection Measures to the Lockdown for it to even make coherent sense as a strategy To Reduce Infections.
But that isn’t anyone’s focus when all they look at are The Curves.
But that isn’t anyone’s focus when all they look at are The Curves.
It’s all like a broken AC. Your house isn’t cooling ‘even though’ you set the thermostat low. So you...just leave it running for longer? Crank it lower? No! You’re probably low on coolant or it’s freezing up or you need a new compressor or something. You need to *look into it*.
From what I’ve seen, most people watching all these (aggregated) Curves aren’t looking into them much. They’re just taking the ‘temperature’ as if all infections, transmissions, cases & deaths are homogeneously interchangeable. You know, cuz it’s an ODE problem.
But it’s not.
But it’s not.
This Curve-ism leads to the perverse situation - or at least, seems like it COULD BE - where ‘caring’ policymakers keep instituting measures like ‘close the playgrounds!’ - ‘protecting’ noninfected suburbanites from each other - while the virus ravages through Meatpackertown.
Or but maybe I’m wrong about that supposition. It’s possible. Who can say? That would require doing a deep dive into the demographics and circumstances of infections. That’s probably kinda hard. No, better just to stare at Curves and keep twisting that Lockdown dial back & forth.
