Thread by @soncharm

I put a clock of 3-4 weeks on this way of life. There is a crossover point where, I'm sorry, but it's less-bad to let the virus run its course and just try to be careful. I don't like either option but we cannot (and, pragmatically speaking, many of us will not) do this forever.

I'm increasingly concerned by the absolutist and (yes) totalitarian attitude being expressed by some, that we have to do 'whatever it takes', where whatever seems to encompass any indefinitely-extended amount of society-wide quarantine.

Again, it's fine in the short-term to give this a shot, and if it works, great. But I just don't want policy-makers getting the idea that their Overton-window feasible-policy parameter-space includes this mass social quarantine and control for N months where N is any integer.

You can do your math and show curves pivoting all you want.

It's simply not going to happen that the government enforces Everyone Stays In Their Homes for 6 months, 9 months, 18 months. Get that possibility out of your head. There will not be a government at that time.

You have to understand that at some point, if this is imposed on everyone long enough, some critical-mass of people who don't perceive themselves at direct risk will think fuck it, let's just cut bait. You don't have to approve. You might think I'm a jerk. It will happen.

It will start to seem more pragmatic to say: well hell, let's just box away everyone over, oh, age 60, Put them somewhere away from us. So that we don't, you know, fucking RUIN OUR CIVILIZATION trying to save 10-20% of them for another 5-10 years.

Callous? Yes.

Inevitable.

The same naive arrogance you criticize in a government that didn't order/allow enough test kits or whatever, is present up in your own head when you entertain a government somehow magically imposing an indefinite 'work from home' quarantine and otherwise everything's cool.

'I'm a policymaker! I work for a government and wear a suit. If I issue an Order that everyone stays in their homes and orders Amazon for 2 years, by golly, that's what'll happen! Bend The Curve' Uh huh

that's what'll happen.

totally

If you think I'm being callous & unpleasant, good.

I WANT to scare people here.

There is simply not the policy parameter-space that many of you act as if there is. It is not available to you. You can try to get there, but you will cause things you didn't intend. Worse things.

And in fact the crossover-point will creep closer with every week you 'intelligently' try to do this to society because of your graphs.

Many people who think 'I guess it's worth it' now WILL STOP THINKING THAT after enough time.