Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
@Convertbond
Jun 14, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Total Stock Positions held at Robinhood, in Millions

2020: 33
2019: 11
2018: 5

Via @BearTrapsReport

*US Treasury’s Margin Account: zero commissions + stimulus checks + lockdown =
S&P 500 vs Total Robinhood Stock Positions in Millions

June at 3200: 33
March at 2200: 17

*Buy high, don’t buy low.

(2)
Shale: Extraction files Chapter 11.

Stock up 500%, now down 71% all-in six trading days.

(3)
#MoralHazard

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Lawrence McDonald

Lawrence McDonald Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Convertbond

Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Aug 17
Since 2021

Bitcoin

59k to 59k

Gold

1750 to 2500

*Last ten years - Gold’s largest drawdown? 21% vs. Bitcoin -82%, -58%, -65%, -75%.

*A store of wealth holds its value. It doesn’t lose half its value or more every few years.
No human being can put large portions of their personal wealth in an asset that drops 50-75% every few years. Gold is a colossal reservoir of liquidity, approaching a $17T market vs. bitcoin at $1.5T.

Chart from @Maverick_Equity Image
@Maverick_Equity As few as 5% of all BTC addresses own over 62% of all available Bitcoin. Thus, liquidity is far far worse than meets the eye. If one large holder needs to sell, the spread between him and the available liquidity is large (see drawdowns).

(3)
Read 9 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Dec 15, 2023
File under another multipolar world headline...

*MAERSK TELLS ALL ITS CONTAINER SHIPS TO PAUSE RED SEA VOYAGES
A large percentage of sea-borne container traffic goes through the Red Sea. Even cargo from Shanghai to New York goes through the Red Sea. All the cargo that goes from China to Europe goes through the Red Sea. Very few go around Africa since it's more costly. Halting this traffic has the potential to disrupt a lot of cargo traffic...Image
Drought Saps the Panama Canal, Disrupting Global Trade - The number of ships that can travel through the vital route has fallen sharply this year because of a lack of water for the locks, raising costs and slowing deliveries.- NYT

*sticky shipping - file under NOT deflationary
Read 5 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Oct 3, 2023
With US Treasuries at 5%, Bank of America is close to 45x levered, at 6-7% infinitely levered.


Image
For all of 2008, as Lehman was failing, the value of their core (safety) capital (US Treasuries) was moving higher, NOT lower.

*As interest rates move down, bond prices move up. Image
After the banks failed in 2008, they were forced to hold far more "quantity" and "quality" of capital. This - ladies and gentlemen - is sowing the seeds of the next crisis. This high-quality capital (US Treasuries) is in flames, dramatically lower in price.

(3)
*Boston Fed. Image
Read 10 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Aug 9, 2023
Off the Recent Lows

Orange Juice +45%
Natural Gas +43%
Sugar +41%
Gasoline +33%
Uranium +28%
Oil +24%
Lean Hogs +22%
Soybeans +16%
Iron Ore +15%
Coal +14%
Wheat +14%

*Bloomberg terminal data, lows since Dec.
**ALERT: Inflation expectations, US 5yr BEs, at a nine-year high.
EU Gas Up 22% today

“The likelihood of a repetition of the crisis of last winter has gone down significantly, which can also be seen in the forward market, “But we have to be clear that the structural change ...
due to the Russian war in Ukraine and the drop out of Russian gas in the supply of Europe is going to stay and therefore the crisis is not over.”CEO at EON

E.ON is one of Europe's largest operators of energy networks, with some 51 million customers.
Read 4 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Mar 25, 2023
What do bonds know?
We are looking at the 3-month US Treasury Bill yield vs. the 2-Year US Treasury yield. The Fed is holding up the front-end T-Bill yields with rate hikes and hits of more vs. market participants pushing down 2’s yield betting on recession - future rate cuts.

(2)
3m vs two-year Treasuries are -98bps, back to 1990, have never been this inverted (pre Lehman it got to -55ish, pre dotcom -77ish). But what does OIL know? A -47% drawdown inside of 10 months, -13% since March 3rd.

(3)
Read 7 tweets
Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Mar 24, 2023
“Policymakers consider themselves vindicated after they followed through on their half-percentage-point rate rise last week despite global market volatility” FT

*the ECB hasn’t figured out banks can’t fund them selves with front end rates this high after the AT1 debacle.
The ECB is “smoking on the dynamite shed..”

(2)
*SCHOLZ: DEUTSCHE BANK IS `VERY PROFITABLE,' NO REASON FOR WORRY

*Loan book $1.3T vs Deposits $621B

vs.

Equity Market Cap $19B

(3)
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(