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MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 14Jun20 recap wk24 / focus wk25 thread 1/n

• Powell concern in thin market led to profit-taking RiskOFF

• honey, I shrunk my lagging economic output data

• NFIB, UoM rebound

• chart flags everywhere

• next wk focus
woah, market air was thinner then many thought... key speech from Powell and his concern led to a mini-sell-off

global stocks, energy sector, high yield bonds took a dive, bonds bid again.
VIX spiked from 24 to 44 (intraday peak), while term structure closed the week in backwardation again.

fragile sentiment ?
US major stock indices took a small hit , but so far remain in the rebound channel...

let's hope this was not only driven by Robinhood accounts...
this is what happened to the 35/40 VXX short term call spread...
...or the 300/310 short term SPY put spread.
US 5Y reversed back during the week ...
...so did US10Y , and by the looks of it, potentially finishing the recoil to break lower ?
US 10s TN reversed back to the previous range, potentially looking for a breakout
lagging hard data last week horrific... here an overview of industrial output on global scale.
all hard data is severe CV19 lagging...

this week US jobless claims though improved further slightly, but no reason to cheer yet
NFIB and flash UoM survey data improving, came better than expected and last time,
almost every PMI survey is improving, here the latest New Zealand stats... still contracting, but less.
update on global assets momentum, trend and exhaustion table...

momentum doesn't change that quickly just because of a 3-5 days roll.
clearly this recent RiskOn pattern is global, highly correlated . Like the charts earlier of SPX, NDX, RTY and DOW, here DAX, MIB, IBEX and AUDJPY

let's assume there won't be a second wave... otherwise
this chart is fascinating...

from GS h/t @PriapusIQ
next week overview of central bank action

moar rate cuts and moar QE expected...
and here next week focus on surveys

ZEW

US NY Fed,
Philly Fed,

to name a few, all expected to improve... as economies re-open
YO
happy Sunday and a good week ahead.

over and out.

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