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MT Profile picture
MT
@MacroTechnicals
Connect. The. Dots. Global Macro & Intermarket Analysis
56 subscribers
Jul 25, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
German IFO business confidence is collapsing ... <again>

🧵

Manufacturing:

Situation: 17M low
Climate: 24M low
Expectations: 27M low Services:

Situation: 3M low
Climate: 17M low
Expectations: 26M low
Feb 9, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
reminder on how even the great John Maynard Keynes first made a fortune and nearly went bankrupt due to his currency speculation in 1920:

mini thread

1/ 2/ "Before 1914, currencies had been fixed, and opportunities to profit from the instability of exchange rates had been almost nonexistent. In the aftermath of the war, as exchange rates of the major currencies lurched up and down, it became possible to make large returns -
Jul 26, 2020 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 26Jul20 recap wk30/focus wk31 thread 1/n

• ERF, Europa and the Bull
• US-China cold war
• Asset rotation
• My Precious! Gollum!
• Another 3 CBs rate cuts
• Q2 GDP, the month of delayed truth / ICYMI, the previous tweet pic is "Europa and the bull" ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(c….

Anyway, the marathon debate about the recovery fund concluded with a good compromise... $EUR took out all stops and surged to near 1.17
Jul 5, 2020 • 23 tweets • 7 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 05Jul20 recap wk27 / focus wk28 thread 1/n

• ESI/PMIs/ISM strong rebound

• NFP true long road of recovery 14.6mln to go

• RiskON wk, Tech unstoppable (until it corrects)

• Reflation traffic light turned yellow 2/ European Business and Consumer confidence crawling out of the dungeon ... the long road of recovery started
Jun 28, 2020 • 34 tweets • 11 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 28Jun20 recap wk26 / focus wk27 thread 1/n

Headlines
• CV19 2.0 2nd wave fear

• trade war (again)

• Biden-Trump Gap ...(Warren as Sec of Treasury?)

• stocks exhaustion (after +45/+55% rally)

• = RiskOFF Momentum starting with the biggest headlines... CV19 2nd wave, especially in US
Jun 21, 2020 • 30 tweets • 11 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 21Jun20 recap wk25 / focus wk26 thread 1/n

• hope everyone enjoyed UK fathers day ;-)

• actually a positive Risk week, although from Monday ramp up then stay range

• Macro "catching" up

• but noise gets louder of CV19 2.0 ? 2/ Germany headlines R0 from Friday 1.06, Sat 1.79, Sun 2.88

really ? country wide ? There are some areas in East Germany with nearly 0 cases since it started.

let's see how this develops, I am not so much worried about cases, but how govt REACT again

news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
Jun 14, 2020 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 14Jun20 recap wk24 / focus wk25 thread 1/n

• Powell concern in thin market led to profit-taking RiskOFF

• honey, I shrunk my lagging economic output data

• NFIB, UoM rebound

• chart flags everywhere

• next wk focus woah, market air was thinner then many thought... key speech from Powell and his concern led to a mini-sell-off

global stocks, energy sector, high yield bonds took a dive, bonds bid again.
Jun 7, 2020 • 31 tweets • 12 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 07Jun20 wk23/24 thread 1/n

• RiskON continued
• Technical super rally
• Global M.PMI S.PMI rebound
• Biz slowly reopen
• NFP error jump
• Yieldcurves steepen further
• it seemed "THE BTFD-GLASS IS ALWAYS FULL" 2/n FED will slow down TSY purchases, but continue with corp debt and fallen angels etc...

Balance sheet ballooned to $7.17T, and I guess the Wu-Xia shadow rate could be -3.5% ?
May 24, 2020 • 26 tweets • 9 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 22May20 wk21/22 thread 1/n

• another overall RiskON wk21 with global stocks up, EM firm, credit spreads tighter, vola down

• China/HK + China/US tension clearly getting headline momentum and intense "War of Words"

• US/UK NIRP ? 2/n last week performance table

• green RiskON board

• China/Hongkong headlines led to capital outflow = underperformance

• Energy sector outperforming

• commodity-driven FX shining
May 10, 2020 • 25 tweets • 10 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 10May20 wk19/20 thread 1/n

• RiskON sentiment continued
• more ugly anticipated Macro data being confirmed
• US FF Futs into NIRP + curve steepening
• more countries planning easing lockdown = when will survey confidence rebound? 2/n recap: services sector NMI data just confirmed the obvious: forced lockdown and the crushing confidence.

New Orders and Employment taking the brunt and PMI distorted by "wrong" high delivery times.

With a (even partial) re-opening, they should hopefully rebound soon.
May 3, 2020 • 27 tweets • 11 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 03May20 wk18/19 thread 1/n

"Imagine economies re-open and go straight to trade war ?"

• Earning season (low bias?)
• Macro data keep tanking
• RiskOn wk until tariff talk, mkt reversed
• next wk NFP -21mln? 2/n couldn't resist chart above (SPX pg1), where govt reaction led to economy standstill, global CBs , esp FED "steps in" to rescue (again), stocks TINA rebound.

Chart below: Liquidity /funding stress and vola calmed down. Like a template deja-vu.

Question: re-open how slow?
Apr 29, 2020 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/ ESI European Economic Sentiment Survey April came as everyone already know: AS LOW AS IT GETS

table shows x months low

and all time z-scores

[Italy didn't even report...] 2/n Euro Area

those charts don't paint the true picture (only last 5 years)
Apr 28, 2020 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
timeline (thread)

23Apr Image 24Apr

...as CME "asked" them to change roll strategy / weightings Image
Apr 26, 2020 • 32 tweets • 10 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 24Apr20 wk17 thread 1/n

• WAITING FOR GODOT

• obviously <the> story of the week was CL & USO
• Macro data tanked as expected
• RiskOFF wk, credits weaker, stocks touch lower, vola tho coming down, Bonds/Gold up, BRL smacked 2/n there were plenty of charts all week even from me, but just to recap this historic event of Crude oil...

NO FUCKING BID...

it wasn't USO roll, but stops after stops after new stops and rumours that USO collapsed

but first: stop-loss-chain-reaction to -$40 ... WTF
Apr 19, 2020 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 17Apr20 wk16 thread 1/n

• volatile semi RiskOn week
• US banks earnings showed huge write downs, volatile week
• Overall, are mkts pricing in "don't fight the FED" or "what COVID" ? 2/n ok, first big bazookas announced mid March, then 23rd, and obviously Apr9th "all-in"... here is a performance overview since Mar23rd. "Don't fight the FED". ZIRP + QQE is what markets want and they got it.

Biggest pot hole ever fixed? what about the real slow recovery ?
Apr 12, 2020 • 19 tweets • 8 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 10Apr20 wk15 thread 1/n

• "the only game in town" - just got bigger as of Apr9th. FED QQE
• led to massive RiskOff week
• Vola down, spreads tighter
• US now 17m jobless claims
• lagging flash Consumer Confidence plunged 2/n clearly, this was the biggest news all week. The already existing massive tools just got larger, deeper, more equity stake Treasury via ESF, lower rating structure... and you thought previously was the kitchen sink ?

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Apr 5, 2020 • 33 tweets • 14 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 03Apr20 wk14 thread 1/n

• horrible Macro data doesn't move markets = "corona-news-lagging"
• Markets in limbo, but vola continues to recede (less surprise shocks)
• the real virus is leveraged debt while economy stands still 2/n ESI bad, Dallas FED -70, Japan Tankan -11, ANZ biz -63.5, US jobless claims -6.6mln, NFP -701k, etc is old news, priced in.

Oil complex got a temp boost on one tweet.

But banks tanked, bonds moving up, credit spreads widened = new RiskOff wave coming?
Apr 2, 2020 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Global PMI March surveys

mini thread 1/n

• China PMI rebound doesn't mean real output V-shape recovery if one understands how PMI is being calculated

• no surprise, manufacturing is weak, but wait for services PMI next 2/n no question, manufacturing was meant to look dire given the near standstill and lockdown situation.

quick overview of the overall red board
Mar 30, 2020 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
European Business & Consumer Confidence ESI Mar Surveys

quick mini chart thread

Manufacturing already in recession due to trade war, COVID-19 lockdown measurements clearly hit the Services + Retail sectors and as expected Consumer Confidence plunged,Employment survey crashing Germany
Mar 29, 2020 • 38 tweets • 12 min read
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 27Mar20 wk13 thread 1/n

• huge global monetary +fiscal rescue packages signal “don’t worry about liquidity+funding”...but
• volatilities across assets peaked
• RiskOn week
• Shortest bear market ever?
• Chart of the month👇 2/n let’s recap this: with half the global economy in forced literal standstill, it forced the biggest monetary (ZIRP/NIRP/QE) and fiscal liquidity rescue package ever. The global leveraged debt bubble burst and COVID-19 triggered more, much more debt. bravo
Mar 24, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
corona virus evolution thread

06 Feb 2020 28 Feb 2020