3/ well, we all saw on TV what happened lately anyway, huge (global) demonstrations, and now a campaign rally in Tulsa, where in other areas like where I live, barbers and restaurants are not even allowed to open.
• RiskON sentiment continued
• more ugly anticipated Macro data being confirmed
• US FF Futs into NIRP + curve steepening
• more countries planning easing lockdown = when will survey confidence rebound?
2/n recap: services sector NMI data just confirmed the obvious: forced lockdown and the crushing confidence.
New Orders and Employment taking the brunt and PMI distorted by "wrong" high delivery times.
With a (even partial) re-opening, they should hopefully rebound soon.
3/n recap: of total 36 sub sectors, only 4 reported growth and 31 contraction = net -27.
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 24Apr20 wk17 thread 1/n
• WAITING FOR GODOT
• obviously <the> story of the week was CL & USO
• Macro data tanked as expected
• RiskOFF wk, credits weaker, stocks touch lower, vola tho coming down, Bonds/Gold up, BRL smacked
2/n there were plenty of charts all week even from me, but just to recap this historic event of Crude oil...
NO FUCKING BID...
it wasn't USO roll, but stops after stops after new stops and rumours that USO collapsed
but first: stop-loss-chain-reaction to -$40 ... WTF
3/n $USO actually wasn't involved in that carnage roll, they did it before.
This here is the latest snapshot, 20/40/20/20 which used to be 80/20. They already pay for storage , instead of pain for roll, same thing. And they did the 8for1 reverse split to make it look better...
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 17Apr20 wk16 thread 1/n
• volatile semi RiskOn week
• US banks earnings showed huge write downs, volatile week
• Overall, are mkts pricing in "don't fight the FED" or "what COVID" ?
2/n ok, first big bazookas announced mid March, then 23rd, and obviously Apr9th "all-in"... here is a performance overview since Mar23rd. "Don't fight the FED". ZIRP + QQE is what markets want and they got it.
Biggest pot hole ever fixed? what about the real slow recovery ?
3/n I am attempting (not accurate) to assume where the Wu-Xia shadow rate is... maybe already -3% ?
FED IMHO won't cut into NIRP (which didn't help Europe or Japan anyway), meaning, MMKT and long end game could be stuck here for a while, little room left. I could be wrong tho
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 10Apr20 wk15 thread 1/n
• "the only game in town" - just got bigger as of Apr9th. FED QQE
• led to massive RiskOff week
• Vola down, spreads tighter
• US now 17m jobless claims
• lagging flash Consumer Confidence plunged
2/n clearly, this was the biggest news all week. The already existing massive tools just got larger, deeper, more equity stake Treasury via ESF, lower rating structure... and you thought previously was the kitchen sink ?
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 27Mar20 wk13 thread 1/n
• huge global monetary +fiscal rescue packages signal “don’t worry about liquidity+funding”...but
• volatilities across assets peaked
• RiskOn week
• Shortest bear market ever?
• Chart of the month👇
2/n let’s recap this: with half the global economy in forced literal standstill, it forced the biggest monetary (ZIRP/NIRP/QE) and fiscal liquidity rescue package ever. The global leveraged debt bubble burst and COVID-19 triggered more, much more debt. bravo
3/n standstill forced companies to draw revolver credit lines. Acute cash flow problems exposed. Good news this week: primary corp debt market was relatively active, and so was secondary (even with wider bid-ask, but it is not frozen, which is important)