𝘬𝘒π˜ͺ Profile picture
Founder of MacroTechnicals. Ex Fixed Income Trader in LDN/SG/TYO/FFM. 2020 word of the year: UNPRECEDENTED 2020 chart of the year: with a broken Y-axis
Clide Moscow Profile picture Jelle Lourens Profile picture JRG Profile picture Orderflowtradr Profile picture 𝘬𝘒π˜ͺ Profile picture 54 added to My Authors
26 Jul
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 26Jul20 recap wk30/focus wk31 thread 1/n

β€’ ERF, Europa and the Bull
β€’ US-China cold war
β€’ Asset rotation
β€’ My Precious! Gollum!
β€’ Another 3 CBs rate cuts
β€’ Q2 GDP, the month of delayed truth
/ ICYMI, the previous tweet pic is "Europa and the bull" ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(c….

Anyway, the marathon debate about the recovery fund concluded with a good compromise... $EUR took out all stops and surged to near 1.17
seems, everyone was long before, but still took out a lot of stops. CFTC report shows, not extreme yet.
Read 20 tweets
12 Jul
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 12Jul20 recap wk28 / focus wk29 thread 1/n

β€’ NMI soars
β€’ Jobless claims + PUA
β€’ UK Sunak aftermaths
β€’ Nasdaq πŸš€ "when moon?"
β€’ COVID 2.0
β€’ leaked doc regarding RE-OPENING
/ US Macro survey sentiment: NMI from zero to hero.

yeah yeah, diffusion index m/m...

and lagging.

and stark rising CV19 cases.

STILL STUNNING.
/ ISM & NMI were so strong, it turned the biz clock ...

but risk is CV19 2.0 and slow-down of the reopening process.
Read 26 tweets
5 Jul
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 05Jul20 recap wk27 / focus wk28 thread 1/n

β€’ ESI/PMIs/ISM strong rebound

β€’ NFP true long road of recovery 14.6mln to go

β€’ RiskON wk, Tech unstoppable (until it corrects)

β€’ Reflation traffic light turned yellow
2/ European Business and Consumer confidence crawling out of the dungeon ... the long road of recovery started
3/ Global Manufacturing PMIs surveys improved further... but not out of the woods yet...
Read 23 tweets
28 Jun
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 28Jun20 recap wk26 / focus wk27 thread 1/n

Headlines
β€’ CV19 2.0 2nd wave fear

β€’ trade war (again)

β€’ Biden-Trump Gap ...(Warren as Sec of Treasury?)

β€’ stocks exhaustion (after +45/+55% rally)

β€’ = RiskOFF Momentum
starting with the biggest headlines... CV19 2nd wave, especially in US
CV19 and the underlying conditions... what scientists start to understand more
Read 34 tweets
21 Jun
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 21Jun20 recap wk25 / focus wk26 thread 1/n

β€’ hope everyone enjoyed UK fathers day ;-)

β€’ actually a positive Risk week, although from Monday ramp up then stay range

β€’ Macro "catching" up

β€’ but noise gets louder of CV19 2.0 ?
2/ Germany headlines R0 from Friday 1.06, Sat 1.79, Sun 2.88

really ? country wide ? There are some areas in East Germany with nearly 0 cases since it started.

let's see how this develops, I am not so much worried about cases, but how govt REACT again

news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
3/ well, we all saw on TV what happened lately anyway, huge (global) demonstrations, and now a campaign rally in Tulsa, where in other areas like where I live, barbers and restaurants are not even allowed to open.

if (IF) this started CV19 2.0 we know why.
Read 30 tweets
14 Jun
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 14Jun20 recap wk24 / focus wk25 thread 1/n

β€’ Powell concern in thin market led to profit-taking RiskOFF

β€’ honey, I shrunk my lagging economic output data

β€’ NFIB, UoM rebound

β€’ chart flags everywhere

β€’ next wk focus
woah, market air was thinner then many thought... key speech from Powell and his concern led to a mini-sell-off

global stocks, energy sector, high yield bonds took a dive, bonds bid again.
VIX spiked from 24 to 44 (intraday peak), while term structure closed the week in backwardation again.

fragile sentiment ?
Read 21 tweets
7 Jun
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 07Jun20 wk23/24 thread 1/n

β€’ RiskON continued
β€’ Technical super rally
β€’ Global M.PMI S.PMI rebound
β€’ Biz slowly reopen
β€’ NFP error jump
β€’ Yieldcurves steepen further
β€’ it seemed "THE BTFD-GLASS IS ALWAYS FULL"
2/n FED will slow down TSY purchases, but continue with corp debt and fallen angels etc...

Balance sheet ballooned to $7.17T, and I guess the Wu-Xia shadow rate could be -3.5% ?
3/n long bond issuance, asset rotation, whatever other reasons, US yield curve keeps steepening.

MM/short end obviously anchored at FF ZIRP, long end goes up
Read 31 tweets
24 May
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 22May20 wk21/22 thread 1/n

β€’ another overall RiskON wk21 with global stocks up, EM firm, credit spreads tighter, vola down

β€’ China/HK + China/US tension clearly getting headline momentum and intense "War of Words"

β€’ US/UK NIRP ?
2/n last week performance table

β€’ green RiskON board

β€’ China/Hongkong headlines led to capital outflow = underperformance

β€’ Energy sector outperforming

β€’ commodity-driven FX shining
3/n housekeeping : global markets YTD as of wk21
Read 26 tweets
10 May
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 10May20 wk19/20 thread 1/n

β€’ RiskON sentiment continued
β€’ more ugly anticipated Macro data being confirmed
β€’ US FF Futs into NIRP + curve steepening
β€’ more countries planning easing lockdown = when will survey confidence rebound?
2/n recap: services sector NMI data just confirmed the obvious: forced lockdown and the crushing confidence.

New Orders and Employment taking the brunt and PMI distorted by "wrong" high delivery times.

With a (even partial) re-opening, they should hopefully rebound soon.
3/n recap: of total 36 sub sectors, only 4 reported growth and 31 contraction = net -27.
Read 25 tweets
3 May
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 03May20 wk18/19 thread 1/n

"Imagine economies re-open and go straight to trade war ?"

β€’ Earning season (low bias?)
β€’ Macro data keep tanking
β€’ RiskOn wk until tariff talk, mkt reversed
β€’ next wk NFP -21mln?
2/n couldn't resist chart above (SPX pg1), where govt reaction led to economy standstill, global CBs , esp FED "steps in" to rescue (again), stocks TINA rebound.

Chart below: Liquidity /funding stress and vola calmed down. Like a template deja-vu.

Question: re-open how slow?
3/n wk18 mixed week, 1st half positive, 2nd half reversal (Tariff spooky). Oh by the way, for the candle stick chartists, many stock indices produced a weekly "gravestone/shooting star".

Anyways, energy sector outperforming on output cut talk.

Credits tighter on the wk overall
Read 27 tweets
29 Apr
1/ ESI European Economic Sentiment Survey April came as everyone already know: AS LOW AS IT GETS

table shows x months low

and all time z-scores

[Italy didn't even report...]
2/n Euro Area

those charts don't paint the true picture (only last 5 years)
3/n Germany Overall Confidence
Read 12 tweets
28 Apr
timeline (thread)

23Apr Image
24Apr

...as CME "asked" them to change roll strategy / weightings Image
27Apr

they have shifted weightings to 14July / NAV $2.06

what used to be 80/20% 1st / 2nd month, they even have inventory in Oct20, Dec20, and Jun21 ! Image
Read 15 tweets
26 Apr
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 24Apr20 wk17 thread 1/n

β€’ WAITING FOR GODOT

β€’ obviously <the> story of the week was CL & USO
β€’ Macro data tanked as expected
β€’ RiskOFF wk, credits weaker, stocks touch lower, vola tho coming down, Bonds/Gold up, BRL smacked
2/n there were plenty of charts all week even from me, but just to recap this historic event of Crude oil...

NO FUCKING BID...

it wasn't USO roll, but stops after stops after new stops and rumours that USO collapsed

but first: stop-loss-chain-reaction to -$40 ... WTF
3/n $USO actually wasn't involved in that carnage roll, they did it before.

This here is the latest snapshot, 20/40/20/20 which used to be 80/20. They already pay for storage , instead of pain for roll, same thing. And they did the 8for1 reverse split to make it look better...
Read 32 tweets
21 Apr
the WTI CL roll game is in full throttle.

yesterday's collapse (IMHO a combination of rolls and intraday BTFD then stopped out traders), has already shifted to June and July.

#OOTT
curve play
update... same procedure , game over for some boys. $USO or else, problem isn't solved, just postponed to another month.

near future is now June and it's collapsing -45%, [ TODAY ] and calendar spreads tanking, volatility exploding. Puts 10x.
this has become a very serious issue now.

yesterday: "hey, nobody is trading May contract, real volume is in June".

well here we are , 24 hours later, JUNE is -13$, to $6.90, ...
Read 3 tweets
19 Apr
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 17Apr20 wk16 thread 1/n

β€’ volatile semi RiskOn week
β€’ US banks earnings showed huge write downs, volatile week
β€’ Overall, are mkts pricing in "don't fight the FED" or "what COVID" ?
2/n ok, first big bazookas announced mid March, then 23rd, and obviously Apr9th "all-in"... here is a performance overview since Mar23rd. "Don't fight the FED". ZIRP + QQE is what markets want and they got it.

Biggest pot hole ever fixed? what about the real slow recovery ?
3/n I am attempting (not accurate) to assume where the Wu-Xia shadow rate is... maybe already -3% ?

FED IMHO won't cut into NIRP (which didn't help Europe or Japan anyway), meaning, MMKT and long end game could be stuck here for a while, little room left. I could be wrong tho
Read 20 tweets
12 Apr
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 10Apr20 wk15 thread 1/n

β€’ "the only game in town" - just got bigger as of Apr9th. FED QQE
β€’ led to massive RiskOff week
β€’ Vola down, spreads tighter
β€’ US now 17m jobless claims
β€’ lagging flash Consumer Confidence plunged
2/n clearly, this was the biggest news all week. The already existing massive tools just got larger, deeper, more equity stake Treasury via ESF, lower rating structure... and you thought previously was the kitchen sink ?

federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
3/n QE (via SPVs) now includes corp debt, and "fallen angels", e.g. FED already covers part of the capital / rating structure as there will be a downgrade tsunami.

Corp bond/loan ETFs like LQD, HYG, JNK, BKLN etc got some extra boost on Thursday.
Read 19 tweets
5 Apr
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 03Apr20 wk14 thread 1/n

β€’ horrible Macro data doesn't move markets = "corona-news-lagging"
β€’ Markets in limbo, but vola continues to recede (less surprise shocks)
β€’ the real virus is leveraged debt while economy stands still
2/n ESI bad, Dallas FED -70, Japan Tankan -11, ANZ biz -63.5, US jobless claims -6.6mln, NFP -701k, etc is old news, priced in.

Oil complex got a temp boost on one tweet.

But banks tanked, bonds moving up, credit spreads widened = new RiskOff wave coming?
3/n obviously March, Q1, and YTD has been horrible, some retracements off lows in stocks, true flight to safe haven continues to be US$ (short squeeze on top), US bonds, bit of Gold.

here the update YTD as of wk14
Read 33 tweets
2 Apr
Global PMI March surveys

mini thread 1/n

β€’ China PMI rebound doesn't mean real output V-shape recovery if one understands how PMI is being calculated

β€’ no surprise, manufacturing is weak, but wait for services PMI next
2/n no question, manufacturing was meant to look dire given the near standstill and lockdown situation.

quick overview of the overall red board
3/n global M.PMI breadth update
Read 10 tweets
30 Mar
European Business & Consumer Confidence ESI Mar Surveys

quick mini chart thread

Manufacturing already in recession due to trade war, COVID-19 lockdown measurements clearly hit the Services + Retail sectors and as expected Consumer Confidence plunged,Employment survey crashing
Germany
France
Read 9 tweets
29 Mar
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment Recap as of 27Mar20 wk13 thread 1/n

β€’ huge global monetary +fiscal rescue packages signal β€œdon’t worry about liquidity+funding”...but
β€’ volatilities across assets peaked
β€’ RiskOn week
β€’ Shortest bear market ever?
β€’ Chart of the monthπŸ‘‡
2/n let’s recap this: with half the global economy in forced literal standstill, it forced the biggest monetary (ZIRP/NIRP/QE) and fiscal liquidity rescue package ever. The global leveraged debt bubble burst and COVID-19 triggered more, much more debt. bravo
3/n standstill forced companies to draw revolver credit lines. Acute cash flow problems exposed. Good news this week: primary corp debt market was relatively active, and so was secondary (even with wider bid-ask, but it is not frozen, which is important)
Read 38 tweets
24 Mar
corona virus evolution thread

06 Feb 2020
28 Feb 2020
05 Mar 2020
Read 8 tweets