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$TSLAQ This is a break from the march through the balance sheet accounts of $TSLA. This is old school credit analysis in a single gloriously crowed spreadsheet. Their financial condition has always been an issue, but the funkiest to me are color coded. (1/8)
Red – Accounts receivable & days receivable. They sell directly to consumers so why does it take an average of 16.50 days to get paid? Also, look how durable it is as a percentage of sales. High 22% to low of 14%. Hovering at 20% since Q1 2019. (2/8)
Light Green – Inventory in absolute & days. Days range from 50 to 79. Three months over 70 days. Usually two causes: stale inventory & inefficient manufacturing. No-one sitting on 70 days of inventory has unlimited demand regardless of inefficiencies (continued). (3/8)
COVID influenced Q12020. But, it is has happened three times since Q12018. Days average 62 days over the nine quarters. (4/8)
Peach – funding inventory. Look at the ratio of ABL + AP / Inventory. Range is 103% to 155%. Inventory is funding a significant amount of all working capital. Lowest days payable was 53 days. Highest was 79 days (continued.) (5/8)
Look at the balance of the ABL from Q12019 to Q12020. After Q12019 not much movement. Most likely gets paid down some during the quarter but, bounces back quickly. Interestingly, the inventory advance rate does not really exceed 50%. (6/8)
Dark Green – Leverage. This is nothing new. It is still astounding. $F has known issues but rides at 60%. $GM is at 33% at Q12020. Tesla got to 71% after the Q1 raise. (7/8)
Days Payable – still light green. Look at Q12018, Q12019, & Q12020. 79, 74, 75 days. They raised already during Q12020, raised after Q12019, & but not in Q12018. Theoretically, they are sitting on $8b in cash. Takes roughly $900m to get this to 60 days. (8/8)
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