This likely bottomed in April, based on Fed Treasury custody data which comes out weekly (less complete data set, but much shorter lag).
When swap lines ramped up to provide USD liquidity, the foreign sector stopped selling Treasuries, and has since been buying some.
The Treasury issued like $3 trillion in net Treasuries YTD, with very little purchased by the foreign sector. The majority of the issuance went onto the Fed's balance sheet.
The Fed accumulated more Treasuries in March and April than the foreign sector has in six years.
April data:
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I keep seeing the chart float around of 23 million government employees, as though that's directly cuttable by the new Department of Government Efficiency.
Keep in mind that 3 million of those are listed as federal and the other 20+ million are state/local.
A thread. 🧵
Now, quantifying the actual federal workforce is actually nontrivial.
-Are we talking civilian, or military too (1.3M)?
-Are we including postal workers (550k)?
Along with Steve Lee @moneyball and Ren @0xren_cf, I co-authored a paper that analyzes the process and risks of how Bitcoin upgrades its consensus rules over time, from a technical & economic perspective.
Bitcoin is hard to change by design, and the methods of how it changes have evolved as the network has grown.
In the paper, we analyze what consensus is, and how different types of entities have different incentives and powers during the course of a potential consensus change.
CPI for November came in this morning. Headline numbers continue to bounce around above 3%, while core continues to gradually decrease. 🧵
Some people assume that the end of inflation means prices go down, but instead it just means the rate of change of prices decreases to the target rate.
There's permanently more money in the system, and prices in aggregate are permanently higher.
Currently, China has weak domestic consumption but strong production/exports, the United States has decent consumption but weak production, and Europe's domestic consumption *and* production are weak.
This weakness weighs on energy prices and other materials.
Since the start of 2020, the United States has taken on $10.7 trillion in new public debt (i.e. accumulated deficits).
That's about $80k per household in four years.
Has your household received that much in deficit spending? Some did, but likely not yours.
Some households received hundreds of thousands or even millions in stimulus.
And a sizable chunk of them were wealthy law firm or investment firm owners, or and various rather large business owners (100s of employees) that were not even disrupted by the pandemic/lockdowns.
Some households received indirect deficit expenditure. For example, if your employer received it, it may have positively affected your job.
But most analysis (e.g. see above tweet) showed that most of the money didn't go to that. It instead pooled near the top.
-The Golden Monarch
-Lord "Uncle" Sam
-The Dragon Emperor
-Archmage Nakamoto
🧵
The Golden Monarch economically defeated all opposition and reigned supreme for thousands of years. Now ancient and wise, and having seen the entirety of history, he contemplates his diminishing role in the modern world and wonders if he could have done anything differently.
Lord Sam, usurper of gold, known merely as “the Uncle” to many, sits at the Cantillon Source and wields the mighty dollar. Liberating in his youth, now oppressive in his age. His monetary power reigns supreme but shows increasing signs of decadence, decay, and defiance.