Thread by @NoTeamsIndy

6/15 UPDATE on @JoeBiden v Trump:

Biden +8.5% nationally, 1.5% higher than Clinton at this point in 2016

BUT Biden stronger than Clinton in 11/16 swing states (no polling for Clinton in ME or NE-2 at this point in 2016)

AND Biden states = 316 EV, while Clinton = 6/15/16 = 211

NOTES:

1. A-B rated polls (per 538.com ratings); RV/LV only

2. Outliers (10%+ off average) removed

3. Lean = ≥4% / Likely = ≥10% / Solid = ≥20%

4. “Swing states”: ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages. Others will be added if polling *average* reaches >10%

Polling versus forecasts

1. 2016 polling *averages* were ACCURATE, both nat'l and swing states, except WI/IA

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

1a. Most election *forecasts*—which this thread is NOT—weren't. 538's forecast largely matched odds from Trump’s internal pollsters at ~30%

2. Biden swing-state margins vs. Trump 2.9% better than Clinton’s (pic 1)

BUT average undecideds in swing states 8.3% in 2020, less than HALF of the 16.8% at this point in 2016. Also, Biden’s lead is larger than ALL remaining undecideds in five states, NONE for Clinton (pic 2)

2a. That's because 2020 general electorate ALREADY more engaged than voters on Election Day in 2016, 2012, or even Obama’s first election in 2008! This question isn't asked very often by pollsters, but both 2020 polls that did found 80%+ "very/extremely interested"

3. Biden should be running weaker than Clinton, since he’s going against an incumbent, who have won re-election 11 of 13 times since 1912. But as @ForecasterEnten notes, he’s in the strongest position of any challenger in the history of modern polling.

cnn.com/2020/05/31/pol…

3a. Clinton's lead never 8%+ after 4/26. Once Dem primaries started, 50%+ for only EIGHT days (3/23-30). After 4/29, 49%+ only ONCE (10/18)

Biden's NEVER trailed Trump, and since primaries started, he’s spent 36 DAYS 50%+, plus 37 (15 and counting as of 6/15) at 49%+

4. Past "Dem states" like WI, ME more competitive now, becoming toss-ups (WI) or leaners (ME), while change favors Dems in VA/AZ

Partly demographic changes, partly sentiment. Point is, 2016/20 comparisons never exactly equal

newsweek.com/us-state-popul…

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

So why all these comparisons to the last election? First, there are some valuable contrasts to be made, especially since Biden’s running against the same opponent.

But mostly, it’s cuz if ya don’t, people who don’t like the data will just lazily say "BUT 2016!!!"

How’s Biden doing it? First, doing what any Dem must to win, like getting 85-90% of Dems, winning indies AND young voters by a sufficient margin (contrary to hastily constructed, click-bait narratives).

But also...

fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…

1. People like Biden more than Trump: Biden’s overall un/favorable rating is slightly underwater (-0.4%), but that’s still 14.4% BETTER than Trump, whereas Clinton’s rating was only slightly better than her opponent's in 2016.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

1a. Also, the percent of respondents who rate Trump "very" or "highly" unfavorable is consistently MUCH worse than Biden, currently 16% higher!

1b. This largely reflects Trump’s job approval rating, which is the lowest in its overall average in the history of modern polling.

He's currently on par with the last three incumbents who lost re-election (GHW Bush, Carter, Ford; LBJ didn’t run).

2. Voters who dislike both breaking HARD for Biden: NBC nat’l (60-10%), Civiqs nat’l (60-2%), OH Predictive Insights AZ (63-6), and Civiqs GA (60-2)

Trump won this group by 10% in 2016, and they didn’t break for him until after Comey letter in OCTOBER!

thehill.com/homenews/campa…

NBC: documentcloud.org/documents/6842…

Civiqs nat’l: civiqs.com/documents/Civi…

AZ: cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/7453540/…

GA: civiqs.com/documents/Civi…

2. CNN polled “double likers” (a group about the same size as “haters”), and they favor Trump by ~40. Advantage is Biden's, though, since likers are less likely to be swayed by smears than their counterparts (esp w/Trump’s higher highly unfavorables).

cnn.com/2020/05/13/pol…

3. Biden is leading with older voters, who are usually a reliable GOP voting bloc. In 2016, Trump won voters 45+, and he’s now losing that group. Even more unusual, the older the voting group, the BETTER Biden’s doing compared to 2016.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-o…

4. Biden is winning women by the largest margin within the history of modern polling, with an average lead of ~25% with this group. That, combined with the fact that he’s doing ~5% better with men than Clinton did in 2016, makes for big leads.

cnn.com/2020/06/13/pol…

5. As Enten notes, Biden’s lead is STEADIEST in modern polling. Why? Because, as expressed in a phrase from the campaign, “WE KNOW JOE.” This is what's kept him ahead, despite the onslaught of smears and criticisms coming from both sides.

cnn.com/2020/05/10/pol…

Some polls have shown Biden voters are less enthusiastic than Trump voters, but enthusiasm is about turning out the party base, and as we saw in the primaries, it was Biden who turned them out in record numbers because they wanted to BEAT TRUMP.

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…

Speaking of turning out, remember that polls can CHANGE, as we see from the polling maps of June 2016 and Election Day. Whatever the polls say, they don’t mean anything unless you show up and VOTE!

So in closing, VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!