"If Trump wants to be a dictator, why did he leave at the end of his term?"

A THREAD:

1. He only left after multiple, illegal schemes to overturn the election failed, including fake electors, pressuring states to overturn results, pressuring Pence to overturn, and inciting J6. 2. Per an EO drafted for him, if he'd succeeded in stopping the Electoral College count, he planned to seize ballots from swing states, put them in military buildings, and have loyalists in his cabinet report their "findings" (i.e., that Trump had magically "won" the election).

🧵 on the "Dixiecrat Switch," going all the way back to the founding of the GOP in the 1850s, for everyone's reference.

Also to combat the historical revisionism on this story, used by MAGA and other Republicans to make the gaslighting claim, "Dems are the real racists!" 🙄 1854: GOP founded to stop creation of more slave states. Most abolitionists joined, but also non-abolitionists, because northern farmers couldn't compete w/southern plantations. Needless to say, racism was/is rampant across the north.

taylorfrancis.com/chapters/mono/…

🧵: #Bidenomics has worked better than anyone could've hoped, in every way possible. And by any fair measure, Biden’s economy is better than Trump's economy ever was, before or after CoVid.

(PSST... polls consistently show economy is undecided voters' #1 issue, so please SHARE!) INFLATION: after worldwide inflation hit, the rate came down faster in the US than any G7 nation, and it's been back to the "target rate" since June 2023.

On January 6th, 2021, Trump supporters—fueled by weeks of lies and violent rhetoric on a “stolen” election—attempted Insurrection to stop the certification of Biden’s win. A THREAD of all the things we have learned about the Seditious Conspiracy that led to that tragic event: Before we start: the fact that ALL of Trumpworld's lawsuits lost in court would be enough for most to know there's no evidence the election was “stolen,” but if not, here’s Giuliani admitting (under oath) they didn’t even check if the claims were true.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Final Biden v. Trump UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.0/Clinton +5.2
EC: Biden 279-121 (+178)/Clinton 223-179 (+43)

Biden 50%+ w/lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in ELEVEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD on polling, early vote, exit polls, and my GUESS at the outcome NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV), otherwise Registered Voter (RV)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. No partisan polls

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

Biden v. Trump 10/23 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +9.9/Clinton +7.1
EC: Biden 279-124 (+155)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in ELEVEN battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

PLUS Biden lead greater than undecideds + 3rd party in TEN battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD... NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2
EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD... NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

@JoeBiden v. Trump 10/1 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +7.9 / Clinton +3.0
Electoral College votes: Biden 279-124 (+155) / Clinton 217-187 (+30)

Biden 50%+ in EIGHT battlegrounds, 49%+ in TWELVE
ZERO for Clinton; highest 44.3%, ≤42% in 15

>1%+ change since 9/15:
9 --> Biden
2 --> Trump NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Battleground polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

MINI-THREAD on polls:

Not that were's approaching the final 30 days, polls are gonna start coming fast and furious. PLEASE remember, it is the *averages* that matter, so don't freak out when you see 1-2 polls that show an undesirable result.

For example... Today, Siena released a poll that shows Biden +3 in IA, while YouGov released a WI poll with Biden +4.

Demographics alone tell us those two numbers cannot both be accurate, but if you feed them into the averages, you'll get a better picture.

@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/22 UPDATE

Biden +7.4 / Clinton +1.6
EC: Biden 284-124 (+160) / Clinton 222-181 (+41)

Biden 50%+ in 7 battlegrounds, 49%+ in 11
0 for Clinton; highest 44.4%, ≥41% in 10/18

Since 9/15: 9 of 18 -> Biden (largest ME: 5.7); 6 even; 3 -> Trump (largest OH, 0.9) NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) excluded

@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/15 UPDATE

Nat'l: Biden +7.8 / Clinton +1.6

EC: Biden 283-124 (+159) / Clinton 212-210 (+2)

Biden 50%+ in FIVE battlegrounds, 49%+ in TEN.

ZERO for Clinton: highest 44.9%, ≥40% in 10/18

Next up: convention bumps real? Enthusiasm gap gone? NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) excluded

@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/6 UPDATE

Nat'l: Biden +7.0/Clinton +3.1
EC: Biden 289-125 (+174) / Clinton 251-164 (+87)

Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds, Clinton ZERO (highest 45.2%, 13 under 42%)

No convention bounces in nat'l polls. Notable changes: AZ 2.1 -> Biden, FL 2.8 -> Trump NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. Polls with 3rd party candidates used, when available

3. High/low turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

4. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) removed

@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/1 update THREAD

Nat'l: Biden +7.3 / Clinton +3.7
Electoral votes: Biden 301 / Clinton 269

Biden at 50% or above in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton (highest 45.8%, 13 under 42%)

N.B. This is 30 days after both 2016 conventions vs. 1 week after 2020 RNC NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. Polls with 3rd party candidates used, when available

3. High/low turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

THREAD: #WheresHunter?

Working a job he's qualified for, unlike Trump's kids. As he was on Burisma board, where he used Yale law degree + 9 yrs as partner in private firm to give legal counsel, and 3 yrs on Amtrak board + investing experience as they moved into foreign markets. "But he was working in Ukraine while his father was conducting diplomacy there, and in China too!" True, but no evidence of any illegal acts or intervention by Joe. But if that's your standard for corruption, I have some really, REALLY bad news about Trump and his kids...

8/15 UPDATE on @JoeBiden / Trump matchup

Nat'l: Biden +9.5 / Clinton +6.8
Electoral votes: Biden 302 / Clinton = 252

This was Clinton's STRONGEST point in the general election: post-VP announcement and Dem convention, while Biden announced VP 4 days ago, convention still ahead. NOTES:

1. "Battleground": ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. Polls with 3rd party candidates used, when available

3. High/low turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

8/1 UPDATE on @JoeBiden / Trump matchup:

Biden +9.5% nationally, 6.2% HIGHER than Clinton at this point in 2016

Biden stronger than Clinton in 15 of 19 battlegrounds (no SC, MT, or NE-2 polls by 8/1/16)

AND Biden states = 302 EV, while Clinton on 8/15/16 = 226 NOTES:

1. A-B rated polls (per 538); lower-rated poll used if unavailable (marked "*"); RV/LV only

1a. Pre-5/31 poll used if recent poll unavailable (marked †”)

2. Battleground": ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 poll averages

3. Lean = ≥5% / Likely = ≥10% / Solid = ≥20%

GENERAL ELECTION THREAD

7/15 UPDATE on @JoeBiden / Trump matchup:

Biden +9.4% nationally, 4.1% HIGHER than Clinton at this point in 2016

Biden stronger than Clinton in 14 of 18 swing states (no NE-2 or MT polls by 7/15/16)

Biden states = 303 EV, while Clinton on 7/15/16 = 227 NOTES:

1. A-B rated polls (per 538.com ratings); one lower-rated poll used if A-B unavailable (marked "*")

1a. RV/LV only

2. Lean = ≥5% / Likely = ≥10% / Solid = ≥20%

3. “Battleground states”: ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

6/15 UPDATE on @JoeBiden v Trump:

Biden +8.5% nationally, 1.5% higher than Clinton at this point in 2016

BUT Biden stronger than Clinton in 11/16 swing states (no polling for Clinton in ME or NE-2 at this point in 2016)

AND Biden states = 316 EV, while Clinton = 6/15/16 = 211 NOTES:

1. A-B rated polls (per 538.com ratings); RV/LV only

2. Outliers (10%+ off average) removed

3. Lean = ≥4% / Likely = ≥10% / Solid = ≥20%

4. “Swing states”: ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages. Others will be added if polling *average* reaches >10%

UPDATE (5/17/20) on Reade’s allegation of sexual assault against Biden, considering stories, collaborations, motives, and patterns.

NB: if you ONLY want to hear good or bad things about Reade or Biden, this isn't the THREAD for you! This is a LONG thread (unrolled versions at the end).

Claims and corroboration considered below.

Credibility, motive, bias, patterns, and making a judgment are on a separate thread:

https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1262028254497685505

PART 2 of Reade-Biden (5/17/20 UPDATE): Tara Reade’s credibility and motives; Joe Biden’s patterns; making a judgment.

Thread on claims and collaboration on separate thread, appended to end of this thread. Motive / bias:

“Pivot I”: Reade’s view of Biden shifts dramatically in 2018, on social media and private conversations (per Politico). Praised his work on domestic abuse (especially the Violence Against Women Act), cancer research, and even his efforts to combat sexual assault.

All assault claims must be heard, and we must not start with disbelief or victim blaming.

BUT without witnesses or physical evidence, we consider credibility, biases, motives, and patterns.

WARNING: if you’re fiercely pro- OR anti-Biden, you won't like parts of this THREAD! This is a LONG thread (unrolled versions at the end).

Claims and corroboration considered below.

Credibility, motive, bias, patterns, and making a judgment are on a separate thread:

https://twitter.com/NoTeamsIndy/status/1259864408706240514