[thread]
Whether 1m or 2m is a choice in weighing up risk
A simple reminder:
"Sir Patrick Vallance told the Commons health committee in May that the risk at 1 metre was 10 to 30 times higher than the risk at 2 metres. "
Whether 1m or 2m is a choice in weighing up risk
A simple reminder:
"Sir Patrick Vallance told the Commons health committee in May that the risk at 1 metre was 10 to 30 times higher than the risk at 2 metres. "
From 2003 with SARS
"Tests of passengers on one flight found that 90% who caught Sars from an infected passenger had been sitting more than three feet away from them. A distance of 6ft or 2 metres became the more cautious recommendation. "
"Tests of passengers on one flight found that 90% who caught Sars from an infected passenger had been sitting more than three feet away from them. A distance of 6ft or 2 metres became the more cautious recommendation. "
"According to UK science advisers, exposure to one cough at 2 metres has a similar risk to talking with someone for a minute at 1 metre and for half an hour at 2 metres. Likewise, a six-second chat at 1 metre is comparable to a one minute conversation at 2 metres. "
"A recent Lancet study funded by WHO found that the chance of transmitting or becoming infected by the virus, with no other protection in place such as a face mask, fell dramatically with distance. At 1m, the risk was 12.8% but this dropped to 2.6% at 1.5m & to about 1.3% at 2m."
"Senior scientists have reported flaws in an influential World Health Organization-commissioned study into the risks of coronavirus infection and say it should not be used as evidence for relaxing the UK’s 2-metre physical distancing rule."
“The analysis of infection risk at 1 metre versus 2 metre should be treated with great caution,” said Prof David Spiegelhalter, a statistician at Cambridge University, who has participated in Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies . “I’m very suspicious of it.”
"Prof Kevin McConway, an applied statistician at the Open University, went further and called the analysis inappropriate. He said the work “should not be used in arguments about how much greater the infection risk is at 1-metre minimum distance as opposed to 2 metres”."
"Prof Ben Cowling at the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control flagged further issues with the work. He tweeted that he was “not taking the whole paper very seriously” because it looked only at distance & not how long a person was exposed for."
“Everyone believes that the risk of infection at 1-metre is higher than at 2-metre and we need to know how much higher because there’s a trade-off between the increased risk and the gains from moving to 1-metre."
"But if you don’t know how the risks at 1 metre and 2 metres compare, how do you know how to trade it off? It’s finger in the air stuff,” McConway said."
So to all those Tory MPs championing a study to go from 2 metres to 1 metre for economic reasons
At least be honest with yourself and with your constituents and don't just selectively promote the science paper that supports your view
At least be honest with yourself and with your constituents and don't just selectively promote the science paper that supports your view
The "apparent success" of Conservative's so far
With
cutting pandemic preparedness
not chairing COBRA
eye-sight tests
lying abt shaking hands w/covid patients
PPE lies
"ramping up" tests
test & trace not ready
Shows they are not to be trusted
theguardian.com/society/2020/j…
With
cutting pandemic preparedness
not chairing COBRA
eye-sight tests
lying abt shaking hands w/covid patients
PPE lies
"ramping up" tests
test & trace not ready
Shows they are not to be trusted
theguardian.com/society/2020/j…
@threadreaderapp unroll please
