Thread by @cfishman

Is Florida experiencing a 'real' rise in cases — or just more testing?

It's very clear. The rise in cases is real & potentially dangerous.

See graphs below.

-->Left, rise in cases (via WashPost)

-->Right, rise in positive test rate (via JHU)

2/ Cases in FL are rising, and yes, testing is rising — but cases are rising so much faster than the positive-rate of testing is rising.

Since the spike started May 28:

--> Cases up from 650 / day to 1,750 / day (2.7x)

--> Positive rate is up from 2.6% to 5.6% (2.1x)

3/ That's all happening as FL loosens stay-at-home rules & opens wider.

FL is finding more cases than ever — record-breaking days 3 of last 5 days. Today (Tue) will set another record.

If you rely on the data, & you look at the data, the data on FL is clear. And worrying.

4/ Texas looks very similar to Florida—cases rising, testing rising, but positive rate also rising.

Not just 'more testing'—the virus is spreading. Not quite as dramatic as FL, but very clear.

Rise started May 26.

—> Cases up, 950 to 1,950 a day

—> Pos-rate up, 5.8% to 7.1%

5/ Texas, like FL, is finding more cases than at any point in the pandemic.

Before spike started May 26, TX highest single day for new cases was 1,801 (5/16).

Since May 26, TX has had 7 days higher than that, including 3 days over 2,000 new cases a day (all in the last 6 days).

6/ Arizona is just like Florida & Texas — except the rise in cases, alongside the rise in the positive rate, is even more dramatic.

Viral spread is out of control in Arizona.

The current rise started May 26.

7/ Here's how the numbers in Arizona have changed:

New cases / day (7-day average):

— May 26: 330
— June 15: 1,250
increase: 3.8x

Positive test rate:

— May 26: 7.5%
— June 15: 16.3%
increase: 2.2x

8/ When reopening began in Arizona on May 1 (6 weeks ago), the highest single day of cases in AZ was 446. That was the day before reopening, April 30.

In the last 14 days, the lowest number of new cases: 530 (Jun 4).

9 of the last 14 days are at least 2x that 446 cases.

9/ Arizona didn't have a dramatic pandemic period before reopening.

But it is creating one now. Graph again below.

10/ Here's the somewhat sobering question about Florida, Texas & Arizona:

How does the viral spread slow down?

How do the graphs of new cases ever plateau — let alone start down?

If no new rules or practices are put in place, there is nothing to slow the coronavirus.

11/ The governors of those states — even if they don't want to reimpose stay-at-home rules — could at least be talking up safe practices, trying to keep the pace of spread in check.

Masks.
Hand-washing.
Avoiding crowds.
Social distancing.

This isn't all or nothing.

12/ But even that is not happening, in those 3 states.

The University of Texas in Austin wants to re-open in August.

The University of Arizona & Arizona State want to re-open in August.

Hard to envision that, if the spread of the disease simply continues, or accelerates.

13/ Here's what's happening in a few more states that are sliding in the wrong direction:

• CA: new cases up 65%, testing is up, positive rate is steady

•Nevada: new cases double, testing up, positive rate rising

• N. Carolina: new cases double, testing up, positive rate up

14/ (Sorry for the long pause)

…More states with worrying trends:

OK: new cases 2x, testing up, pos rate 2x

OR: new cases almost 3x, testing not up, pos rate 2x

S. Carolina — new cases 3x, testing rising slightly, pos rate up

UT: new cases 2x, testing up, positive rate up

15/ There are many sources for data.

The data I rely on for new cases and deaths comes from the data wizards @washingtonpost — those are WaPo state-by-state graphs with the orange bars.

Here:
washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/…

16/ The data for the status of testing & percent-positive rates over time comes from the data wizards @JohnsHopkins — and the data specifically on testing, which JHU puts in graph form, comes over from @COVID19Tracking.

Link for the testing page graphs:
coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/indivi…

17/ Florida, Texas, Arizona and also N. Carolina, S. Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah — these states are all more dangerous, in terms of the chance of getting the virus from community transmission, than they were back in March & April, when stay-at-home orders were put in place.

18/ What we as a community want to do about that, in each state, and even at the county level in those states — that's a different question.

But let's be clear:

It's not: 'Lock everyone at home until vaccine.'
or
'Make everyone free and shrug.'

19/ We can take care.

And if the virus gets going in those places, the economy will end up freezing anyway — because people will be nervous enough about their personal health & safety, and the health of their loved ones, that they will stay home.

20/ For those asking:

Yes, of course, hospitalization data is valuable & revealing, where available.

Arizona is now at record levels for:

—ER visits for covid-19
—hospitalizations for covid-19
—ICU beds for covid-19
—ventilator use

azcentral.com/story/news/loc…

21/ Texas is at record hospitalizations for covid-19 as well.

But if what we care about is the ability of the health care system to cope with sick people, not whether they get sick, Texas continues to have beds. (Arizona's ICUs are getting full however.)

forbes.com/sites/tommybee…

22/ Florida does not report real-time hospitalization data.

But in the period from June 1 to June 6, the most recent for which FL reports any day, ER visits did rise.

That data is 10 days old now.
And it's not admissions, just ER visits.

experience.arcgis.com/experience/96d…

23/ Stay well.

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