Thread by @cfishman

Brief coronavirus update, Tuesday, June 9, 2020
~ a mix of good news & foreboding news

In US, fatalities nationwide falling steadily.

• Deaths are below 500 a day, 2 days in a row, for the first time since Mar 27

2/ US fatalities update, con't.

• Deaths fall below 1,000 a day, 4 days in a row, for the first time since Mar 31.

From April 3 to May 26, the 7-day average in the US was above 1,000 deaths a day — 53 days in a row.

For 13 days in a row, it was above 2,000 deaths a day.

3/ Two western countries now report zero cases (0) of coronavirus.

Actually, slightly more dramatic than that.

New Zealand has had no new cases in 17 days.

New Zealand has not 1 person in the country sick with covid-19.

cnn.com/travel/article…

4/ New Zealand has 5 million people (the same as S. Carolina).

The country managed its outbreak very aggressively.

Total NZ cases: 1,504 (SC: 14,800)
Total NZ deaths: 22 (SC: 557)

New Zealand is an island nation, but with strong tourist & commercial connections.

5/ Australia has also reported zero (0) new cases of community transmitted coronavirus cases, for the first time in months. (It had 2 confirmed cases by travelers, acquired overseas.)

Australia has had 7 new cases in the last week — 1 a day.

abc.net.au/news/2020-06-0…

6/ Australia too took an aggressive approach to the outbreak, & a conservative approach to reopening to avoid a 2nd wave outbreak.

Australia has a population of 25 million (a little more than Florida).

AUS total cases: 7,267 (FL: 64,900)
AUS total deaths: 102 (FL: 2,712)

7/ Australia too is an island nation, but with strong travel, tourist and commercial connections — especially across China and Asia.

If you have 0 cases, it's much easier to reopen your economy with confidence.

Both NZ and AUS will move cautiously with arriving visitors.

8/ Worth paying attention to some of the lessons from both.

Australia is a big nation, with big cities, a vibrant capitalist economy & a complicated democracy.

Good story here on the differences between the Australia and US approach to coronavirus.

businessinsider.com/expert-explain…

9/ The forboding news.

Two of the states with rapidly rising new-case counts are also seeing rising hospital cases.

Texas:
• Total TX coronavirus hospitalizations: 1,935
• Highest level in the pandemic
• Total hospitalizations rise, 12 days of 14

10/ In a state as large as Texas, 1,935 people in the hospital with coronavirus is not a crisis. TX has 58,000 hospital beds.

TX also seeing its all-time-high for new confirmed cases.

Texas, 7-day average new cases:

• June 8: 1,500 a day
• April 20 (reopening): 800 a day

11/ Is that all just increased testing?

Texas overall ranks 44th in the nation in testing its population — but it is doing better.

New cases started rising in TX April 30.

Texas, tests, 7-day average:
• Jun 7: 21,000 a day
• Apr 30: 15,000 a day

12/ So, in Texas, over the 5 week steady rise in cases since Apr 30:

• TX testing up: 40%
• TX new cases up: 70%*

And hospitalizations rising and at peak.

_____
New cases were averaging 800 a day at reopening Apr 20. Averaging 880 a day as cases started to rise Apr 30.

13/ Arizona could be heading to crisis.

Arizona, new cases, 7-day average:
• June 8: 1,100 / day
• May 1: 300 / day (reopening started)

Cases started rising May 25. How has AZ done on testing?

AZ testing, 7-day average:
• June 8: 8,600 a day
• May 25: 4,000 a day

14/ So, in Arizona:

• Cases up by a multiple of 3.3
• Testing up by a multiple of 2.2*

Graph below from the data wizards @washingtonpost

___
*Avg new cases on May 25 was 330 / day.

15/ More important, AZ's hospitals are seeing a surge.

AZ's state health director asked hospitals to activate their emergency plans Saturday.

Banner Health, AZ's largest hospital system (affiliated with UA's medical school), said its ICUs in Tucson & Phoenix are almost full.

16/ Here's a story on the preparation of Arizona's hospital, if the surge in new cases continues.

tucson.com/news/local/ari…

17/ Now, let's briefly revisit Florida.

A lot of twitter readers pointed out that I didn't benchmark Florida's rise in daily average cases against the increase in testing in Florida.

Let's do that.

18/ In Florida, new cases started to rise May 28.

(Chart below, from the @washingtonpost)

Since May 28, increase in:
• New cases, 7-day average / day: 69%
• Tests performed, 7-day avg / day: 40%

Testing is up, new cases are up much more.

19/ For those who want to cross-check, here's the numbers:

FL new cases, 7-day average:
• June 8: 1,100 a day
• May 28: 650 a day

FL tests performed, 7-day average:
• June 8: 28,000 a day
• May 28: 20,000 a day

Test day from:
covidtracking.com/data/state/flo…

20/ Florida is not Arizona. Cases are rising faster, even accounting for testing, in Arizona than Florida.

Florida is 3 times the population of Arizona.

But in 3 of the last 4 days, Arizona has added 1,000+ new cases a day — the same as Florida has.

21/ But FL is lifting restrictions, as cases rise — even accounting for testing.

• Beaches in Dade open Wed

• Bars & restaurants in S.FL open at 50% capacity inside, 100% outside

• Movie theaters (except S.FL) open at 50% capacity

• Gyms, stores (except S.FL) open at 100%

22/ Saw a lot of screen shots of Florida's hospitalization data from the Florida state coronavirus data dashboard.

It's a beautiful dashboard (although many questions about the completeness of the data).

But those screenshots? See below.

23/ Florida provides emergency room visit data (but couldn't find hospitalization data — @ me if you can).

Hospital data hasn't been updated since May 31.

FL, new cases, 7-day average:
• May 31: 730
• June 8: 1,150

Increase in new cases: 57% in 8 days

24/ Much of the spike has come since May 31. And FL is not reporting hospital-visit data for that exact period.

I don't know enough about the lag in FL's data reporting to know if that is typical or unusual.

But we don't know what's happening in FL hospitals now, as cases rise.