THREAD: Australia lost another 228,000 jobs in May. Employment is still falling (unlike US & Canada where some rebound occurred in May). Total job loss since February 838,000 (down 6.5%). Official unemployment rate up to 7.1%, but we know that's just the tip of the iceberg...2
There were 925,000 officially unemployed (didn't work, but available & looking). Falling labour participation since Feb represents another 640,000. And there's 1.5 million technically "employed" people who lost most or all of their hours. Realistically, unemployment is >20% ...3
Data confirms this is a feminised recession: women's employment down 7.4% since Feb, v. 5.6% for men. So why is Coalition govt so intent on cutting supports for women (like child care), while trumpeting male stimulus (like the idiotic home reno scheme)?...4
Official unemployment rose 85,000 in May, and is up 231,000 since Feb. That's bad. But that represents barely 1 in 4 of those who lost employment. Most of those who lost jobs are disappearing from the labour market entirely. It will take years to get them back...5
Hours worked fell another 0.7% in May, and are down 9.4% since February. Underemployment fell, but for the wrong reason: people who were underemployed in April, lost their jobs entirely in May. Thus #ABS's total underutilisation rate rose slightly (to 20.2%, the highest ever)...6
Don't let anyone spin this as "not as bad as we expected." This is Depression-level unemploymt. And it's still getting worse, even though Australia flattened the curve so well. Any idea of ending or tapering JobKeeper or rolling back JobSeeker would prolong and worsen the misery.
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Just in time for Prime Minister Carney's meeting with Donald Trump, I have analyzed new U.S. Census Bureau data on bilateral Canada-U.S. trade (now including full-year 2024 results). Full analysis here: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2progressive-economics.ca/2025/05/latest…
The U.S. bilateral trade deficit with Canada shrank 12% in 2024, to just $35.7b (U.S.). That's a small fraction of the inflated numbers ("$100 billion, $200 billion, $300 billion") that Trump just makes up. /3
Relative to U.S. GDP, which has been growing quickly in nominal terms, that bilateral deficit has been halved since 2022 (largely due to lower oil prices), falling to 0.12% in 2024. Even the U.S. global deficit is a much smaller share of GDP (3.1% in 2024) than in the 2000s. /4
Certain partisans have been citing Canada's performance on per capita GDP as evidence of a supposed 'lost decade' and economic mismanagement. In @IRPP Policy Options, I deconstruct this arbitrary and misleading statistic, in two parts. #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2
Part I: The numerator of 🇨🇦's per capita GDP has done reasonably well: 2nd best GDP growth in the G7 over the last decade. The denominator (population) has grown unusually fast (esp. since 2021), and that is what has suppressed the value of the ratio. /3policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/apri…
I also show flaws in the methodology of calculating per capita GDP. The world leaders in per capita GDP are all tax havens: that's phony. In Canada, Newfoundland & Labrador has above-avg per capita GDP (hence no equalization) despite lower personal incomes. A flawed measure! /4
Mr. Poilievre is resuscitating COVID-era arguments that inflation is a 'tax' (caused by Justin Trudeau's deficits and Tiff Macklem's ATM), and that he can 'cancel the tax' with federal spending cuts. Here are the top 4 reasons his economics are all wrong: #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2
1. International Comparisons: Post-COVID inflation was a global phenomenon, affecting almost all countries, with no correlation to deficits or government spending. Canada's inflation since 2019 has been relatively mild, well below the US and the OECD average. /3
2. Timing: The federal deficit (huge during COVID lockdowns) was approaching balance (in national accounts terms, which is what matters for macroeconomics) by the time inflation accelerated in latter 2021 and 2022. Purported 'excess demand' from CERB benefits was long gone. /4
Crude oil prices are down $14/b (20%) in the last week. Apart from acute embarrassment for Danielle Smith (who called Trump's tariffs last week a "big win for Alberta & Canada"), there's an important lesson to be learned here about how crude oil futures markets work. #cdnecon /2
This thread draws on analysis of oil futures markets from @futurework_cda's recent report, "Counting the Costs": . It computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years. /3 falseprofits.ca/reports
Prices for various specific crudes are set in relation to key benchmarks (mostly WTI & Brent) which are set on futures markets. Futures markets are financial markets. They don't trade in oil; they trade in contracts which are promises to deliver oil at some time in the future. /4
Trump says any car “not made in America” gets a 25% tariff. That means EVERY car gets a tariff, cuz there’s no such thing as a “car made in America.” Only cars made in NORTH America. Every one of which has a lot of 🇨🇦🇺🇸 and 🇲🇽 content in it. #cdnecon /2
More Americans will be hurt by this than Canadians and Mexicans, cuz far more Americans are employed making North American cars… and their plants will all be screwed up by this, too. /3
Trump’s musings about pro-rating the tariff to reflect US parts content in imported vehicles, all by next Wednesday, are laughable. It would take years and enormous data & bureaucracy to set up a system like that. These clowns can’t even run a private group chat. /4
“Who’s Subsidizing Whom?” I have written a new report for the Centre for Future Work @futurework_cda rebutting Trump’s arguments that the U.S. “subsidizes” Canada through its bilateral trade deficit: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli #canlab /2centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…
First, that deficit is 1/5 as large as Trump claims ($40bUS not $200b), US trade is more balanced with us than other partners (they sell us 92c for every $ they buy) & a deficit isn’t a “subsidy” anyway. Their big surplus in services offsets much of the deficit in merchandise. /3
In fact I identify 3 ways Canada-US trade diverges from normal practice. In effect, these are ways WE subsidize THEM: 1. Cheap secure oil, with access for US corp's to profit 2. Huge services imports--underreported, largely untaxed 3. Cheap credit to help finance their deficit /4