Jim Stanford Profile picture
Jun 18, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
THREAD: Australia lost another 228,000 jobs in May. Employment is still falling (unlike US & Canada where some rebound occurred in May). Total job loss since February 838,000 (down 6.5%). Official unemployment rate up to 7.1%, but we know that's just the tip of the iceberg...2
There were 925,000 officially unemployed (didn't work, but available & looking). Falling labour participation since Feb represents another 640,000. And there's 1.5 million technically "employed" people who lost most or all of their hours. Realistically, unemployment is >20% ...3
Data confirms this is a feminised recession: women's employment down 7.4% since Feb, v. 5.6% for men. So why is Coalition govt so intent on cutting supports for women (like child care), while trumpeting male stimulus (like the idiotic home reno scheme)?...4
Official unemployment rose 85,000 in May, and is up 231,000 since Feb. That's bad. But that represents barely 1 in 4 of those who lost employment. Most of those who lost jobs are disappearing from the labour market entirely. It will take years to get them back...5
Hours worked fell another 0.7% in May, and are down 9.4% since February. Underemployment fell, but for the wrong reason: people who were underemployed in April, lost their jobs entirely in May. Thus #ABS's total underutilisation rate rose slightly (to 20.2%, the highest ever)...6
Don't let anyone spin this as "not as bad as we expected." This is Depression-level unemploymt. And it's still getting worse, even though Australia flattened the curve so well. Any idea of ending or tapering JobKeeper or rolling back JobSeeker would prolong and worsen the misery.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jim Stanford

Jim Stanford Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JimboStanford

Apr 9
Crude oil prices are down $14/b (20%) in the last week. Apart from acute embarrassment for Danielle Smith (who called Trump's tariffs last week a "big win for Alberta & Canada"), there's an important lesson to be learned here about how crude oil futures markets work. #cdnecon /2 Image
This thread draws on analysis of oil futures markets from @futurework_cda's recent report, "Counting the Costs": . It computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years. /3 falseprofits.ca/reportsImage
Prices for various specific crudes are set in relation to key benchmarks (mostly WTI & Brent) which are set on futures markets. Futures markets are financial markets. They don't trade in oil; they trade in contracts which are promises to deliver oil at some time in the future. /4
Read 16 tweets
Mar 27
Trump says any car “not made in America” gets a 25% tariff. That means EVERY car gets a tariff, cuz there’s no such thing as a “car made in America.” Only cars made in NORTH America. Every one of which has a lot of 🇨🇦🇺🇸 and 🇲🇽 content in it. #cdnecon /2
More Americans will be hurt by this than Canadians and Mexicans, cuz far more Americans are employed making North American cars… and their plants will all be screwed up by this, too. /3
Trump’s musings about pro-rating the tariff to reflect US parts content in imported vehicles, all by next Wednesday, are laughable. It would take years and enormous data & bureaucracy to set up a system like that. These clowns can’t even run a private group chat. /4
Read 4 tweets
Jan 13
“Who’s Subsidizing Whom?” I have written a new report for the Centre for Future Work @futurework_cda rebutting Trump’s arguments that the U.S. “subsidizes” Canada through its bilateral trade deficit: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli #canlab /2centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…
First, that deficit is 1/5 as large as Trump claims ($40bUS not $200b), US trade is more balanced with us than other partners (they sell us 92c for every $ they buy) & a deficit isn’t a “subsidy” anyway. Their big surplus in services offsets much of the deficit in merchandise. /3 Image
In fact I identify 3 ways Canada-US trade diverges from normal practice. In effect, these are ways WE subsidize THEM:
1. Cheap secure oil, with access for US corp's to profit
2. Huge services imports--underreported, largely untaxed
3. Cheap credit to help finance their deficit /4 Image
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2024
Odd framing in @TorontoStar's cvg of the strike by (uncertified) Amazon workers in the US: . Of course their 'Cdn counterparts will not be joining': as @TheLawofWork has explained, non-certified workers in 🇨🇦 have no rights to protected concerted action. /2thestar.com/business/amazo…
Before anyone jumps to the conclusion that US workers therefore have more power, remember that once Canadian workers get a certification (as they have in Quebec, and are seeking in BC & elsewhere), they have far more power--including to get an arbitrated 1st contract. /3
And 🇨🇦's Rand formula then guarantees that the union (duly certified by a majority of workers, and via a contract then ratified by another majority of workers) can collect dues to stably fund the infrastructure of bargaining and representation. /4
Read 6 tweets
Nov 25, 2024
We have released a new report today from @CntrFutureWork on the economic benefits that are already visible from 🇨🇦's new $10-a-day national early learning & child care (ELCC) program: #cdnpoli #cdnecon /2 centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…Image
Economists have long shown ELCC's many economic gains, via:
* Direct jobs in the ELCC sector
* Indirect / induced activity in upstream (supply chain) & downstream (consumer) industries
* Increased female labour supply
* Long-run gains from enhanced learning capacity in kids
/3
So it's gratifying to see this actually happening in real-time from the new national 🇨🇦 program:
* 40,000 new jobs in ELCC since 2019
* Better earnings and hours for ELCC workers
* 175,000 new female FTE labour supply (from higher participation & more full-time work)
/4 Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 20, 2024
OK sir, now let's do 2024.
Hourly wages (measured by the LFS) have grown twice as fast as prices (measured by the CPI) in the last 12 mos.
And by the way, there are several other serious problems with that original chart, in addition to it being 2 years out of date. #cdnecon /2
Image
A. You don't calculate change in real wage by subtracting the inflation rate from % wage growth. You must calculate an index (dividing wage by CPI) and measure how that changes.
B. The proper change in so-called 'pay' (more on this below) for 2022 was thus -4.0%, not -4.3% /3
C. The StatsCan report which Mr Poilievre cites explicitly states (in both text & charts) that the real income change was -4.0%, not -4.3%. (They can do the math right.) So the CPC chart-makers deliberately chose to use a higher (but false) number. They can't claim ignorance. /4
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(