1/ Virus thoughts. Chart below shows tracking of positive cases. Note there is a weekly up/down cycle likely due to less testing and work done on the weekend. There is a 1-2 day lag for results to filter through so looking at this, all dips are on weekend. Image
2/ Clearly, shutdowns had the anticipated affect of "flattening the curve". However, Memorial Day was a pivot when the public basically went YOLO and you started seeing mass gatherings, many people without masks
3/ Incubation is 4-14 days, but most are 10-14 down the road. Note that ~June 6 marked a low point, 12 days after Memorial Day. No doubt we are seeing the result of mass ignorance of the virus as cases tick up dramatically since then.
4/ I don't think we have seen results from all the rioting and protests yet but likely the exponential rise of cases picks up and becomes noticeable by early July as infections from this also take affect.
5/ It's been noted deaths remain low. This is to be expected as people don't die immediately upon being infected. It's another 1-2 weeks on top to start seeing this, so deaths from Memorial Day ought to start upticking end of June and become noticeable early July.
6/ Deaths from rioting/protests should become noticeable by mid July.This is the time frame of events I am looking at.
7/ Quite frankly, we are a nation of self entitled, arrogant, can't make me wear a mask, won't happen to me, I am better than others, people. I fully expect wave 2 to appear because of this.
8/ While I don't advocate economic shutdown, the complete throwing caution to the wind of the population, is a serious problem. Asian countries comply much better. We simply don't take it seriously.
9/ Even while shutdowns occurred, it wasn't really complete with many parts still open, many ignoring caution, etc. I have said it before, USA is a giant swimming pool and those that non-comply are still in it. Doesn't matter who pisses in the pool, it affects EVERYONE.
10/ So, this will be interesting to watch unfold over next few months. I am business traveling lightly again but not without taking an abundance of caution.
11/ And the whole mask issue is completely misunderstood. I agree, many of the masks do NOT work well. These are the basic cotton, handkerchief, wearing under the nose, etc. All useless material or action. However, proper material and use IS effective.
This is part of the problem because even a good mask not worn well is ineffective. N95 do work. I get tired of seeing all the comments about pore size being too large. It's not as simple as that. The electrostatic charge of these masks reduce the effective pore size significantly
13/ I can pull up science papers with actual filtration studies on particle size that show data. Virus do get trapped. In addition, much of the virus is also riding on liquid aerosol particles which won't make it through.
14/ Maybe they are not 100%, but masks between two people, proper material, worn properly, will significantly reduce the rate of transmission and that is the ultimate goal. You won't find me in public places without one or near someone that doesn't have it.
15/ I plan to reduce my odds of becoming a death statistic as much as possible.

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More from @PuffDragon11

8 Jun
1/ Can't help to see how eerily similar the set up is. June 7-9-11 is Major window. Does the centerpoint on 9th finally break? STILL have not closed above May 10 high.
2/ I am not seeing strength here. Potential ending fractal where there is a rally in green and red corrective. However, each "break" results in a substantially weaker rally. The B wave top of each red for first 2 were both gap and crap. Out of room on the last one.
3/ $AAPL Seeing trouble. That's a valid 3 wave corrective bear flag on the right and on falling volume. Possible HS also with falling volume targets 103 on the break. Major market general here could help take down the market.
Read 9 tweets
6 Jun
1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. Chart posted below on May 28 with current inset on top. So far so good. Another major time zone 6-7 to 6-9/11. Goods odds of drop to black channel ~4140 starting Monday.
2/ Lower black channel is super important so watch carefully. Break that and a slight alternate to above says we're done just in case.
3/ For now, let's assume black channel holds. The fractal pattern posted last week is also holding and that means time for another one of those green zigzags down.
Read 11 tweets
1 May
1/ Chart study from the Dragon's Den. Bank index first. $BKX
2/ Weekly. Major RSI spikes catch significant highs and lows leading to pauses or more likely, reversal. Large ABC pattern looks complete. B wave classic flat. Image
3/ $BKX ABC-X-ABC zigzag since Oct is pretty clean. B waves channel perfectly for textbook structure. Not much more to go. Image
Read 23 tweets
17 Mar
1/ You don't have to trade every day to make good money. In fact, shorter term time frames can actually be more challenging because signals are influence by higher time and lower time frames. Let things line up and take the few trades that REALLY skew things in your favor.
2/ Commodities are about to hit a brick wall. Everyone says inflation. NO!! Weeklies are awesome for long term. Line up RSI and buyer/seller ADX spikes for best results. Throw in some trend lines which correlate and you have a perfect set up.
3/ Time frames are absolutely critical. Buyer/seller or RSI spikes on the monthly may be good for more than a year. Weekly for 6-12 months. Daily for 1-4 months. 60 min - 1-3 weeks. Don't overplay signals
Read 8 tweets
8 Feb
1/ Chart Study from Dragon's Den. Been a while, but this is just a short one. Let's start with the BIG picture. Entire rally from 1932 and rally from 2009 are IDENTICAL. It's a nested pattern
2/ So if nesting, the rally from Mar 2020 low should again be like pattern from 2009. Just one degree smaller. I think it is close.
3/ Here is a close up of move from 2020. Same pattern but one difference. We are losing momentum. Do we have one more smaller cycle left? Maybe
Read 10 tweets
26 Jan
1/ Futures down tonight. 2 things. 1) I don't like big gaps near the high. Odds favor it is recovered. 2) No break until the lower blue line breaks. As long as the gap down stays above this, watch for rally to fill gap.
2/ That said, this is the final segment in the wedge and there is likely a lot of overlap but no more than 3 clear waves. once gap fills, that may be it so a terminal end is upon us.
3/ Once the lower wedge breaks though, next should be the lower parallel line here. We are seeing downside moves appear swiftly and this may continue to hold true with little time to react. I suspect that lower lines proves to be another bounce point tho.
Read 4 tweets

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