1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. This is the big picture. It has absolutely NOT changed at all and my guide for next 2-3 years. Image
2/ The 3 peaks pattern is the true market nesting pattern. In the last big picture chart, we see that 2000-2009 was a giant ABC corrective. Going one step bigger, 2000 - now is also a giant ABC but we have only just begun the C.
3/ In some ways, that will make the coming decline as well as the 2007-2009 decline similar in terms of pattern and character. It won't be 100% as the market has ways of making things a bit dynamic but the overall arch should be similar.
4/ We also saw that 2010-2012 was another ABC corrective flat. So we have at least 2 recent historical models.
5/ The 2008 model might give is a glimmer of what is to come. Pay attention to all the lines. Also, C waves are FAST and much short than B. If time ratio holds, we have some timing targets too. Image
6/ That last chart says we are at a peak and heading to slight new lows. My guess is ~2000 on S&P. Perhaps into Aug. Rally into election, then drop into end of year to ~1800-2000 range. That completes Wave 1 of our giant C wave.
7/ From there, another massive rally for a few months though this one likely a fib retrace from the very top. Let's say 3400 to 1900 = 1500, so a 38% or 50% retrace at best. Then wave 3 starts.
8/ This is the actual meat of the decline and will be a LONG period of relentless selling...with some attempts to bounce in between. But I suspect this period is when it all falls apart finally and the index drops below 1000.
9/ But not done yet, because then we start to build the real bottom and final drop into a point of despair. "Don't fight the Fed"? Yeah, good luck with that.
10/ Here is the 20011 model. Shorter time frame which can introduce a little more variation but I think you can still see common elements. This was also an internal part of the rally phase and not BC 0f the ABC 3 peaks. Image

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More from @PuffDragon11

8 Jun
1/ Can't help to see how eerily similar the set up is. June 7-9-11 is Major window. Does the centerpoint on 9th finally break? STILL have not closed above May 10 high.
2/ I am not seeing strength here. Potential ending fractal where there is a rally in green and red corrective. However, each "break" results in a substantially weaker rally. The B wave top of each red for first 2 were both gap and crap. Out of room on the last one.
3/ $AAPL Seeing trouble. That's a valid 3 wave corrective bear flag on the right and on falling volume. Possible HS also with falling volume targets 103 on the break. Major market general here could help take down the market.
Read 9 tweets
6 Jun
1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. Chart posted below on May 28 with current inset on top. So far so good. Another major time zone 6-7 to 6-9/11. Goods odds of drop to black channel ~4140 starting Monday.
2/ Lower black channel is super important so watch carefully. Break that and a slight alternate to above says we're done just in case.
3/ For now, let's assume black channel holds. The fractal pattern posted last week is also holding and that means time for another one of those green zigzags down.
Read 11 tweets
1 May
1/ Chart study from the Dragon's Den. Bank index first. $BKX
2/ Weekly. Major RSI spikes catch significant highs and lows leading to pauses or more likely, reversal. Large ABC pattern looks complete. B wave classic flat. Image
3/ $BKX ABC-X-ABC zigzag since Oct is pretty clean. B waves channel perfectly for textbook structure. Not much more to go. Image
Read 23 tweets
17 Mar
1/ You don't have to trade every day to make good money. In fact, shorter term time frames can actually be more challenging because signals are influence by higher time and lower time frames. Let things line up and take the few trades that REALLY skew things in your favor.
2/ Commodities are about to hit a brick wall. Everyone says inflation. NO!! Weeklies are awesome for long term. Line up RSI and buyer/seller ADX spikes for best results. Throw in some trend lines which correlate and you have a perfect set up.
3/ Time frames are absolutely critical. Buyer/seller or RSI spikes on the monthly may be good for more than a year. Weekly for 6-12 months. Daily for 1-4 months. 60 min - 1-3 weeks. Don't overplay signals
Read 8 tweets
8 Feb
1/ Chart Study from Dragon's Den. Been a while, but this is just a short one. Let's start with the BIG picture. Entire rally from 1932 and rally from 2009 are IDENTICAL. It's a nested pattern
2/ So if nesting, the rally from Mar 2020 low should again be like pattern from 2009. Just one degree smaller. I think it is close.
3/ Here is a close up of move from 2020. Same pattern but one difference. We are losing momentum. Do we have one more smaller cycle left? Maybe
Read 10 tweets
26 Jan
1/ Futures down tonight. 2 things. 1) I don't like big gaps near the high. Odds favor it is recovered. 2) No break until the lower blue line breaks. As long as the gap down stays above this, watch for rally to fill gap.
2/ That said, this is the final segment in the wedge and there is likely a lot of overlap but no more than 3 clear waves. once gap fills, that may be it so a terminal end is upon us.
3/ Once the lower wedge breaks though, next should be the lower parallel line here. We are seeing downside moves appear swiftly and this may continue to hold true with little time to react. I suspect that lower lines proves to be another bounce point tho.
Read 4 tweets

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