Higher import prices, reduced investment, slower growth. Trade & employment resilient
Evidence points to annual cost per person between £500 and £1000
Thread summarising academic literature to date (pre-covid) 1/
EU's share of aggregate UK trade has remained stable since the referendum
Brexit yet to cause big changes to geography of UK trade
Available evidence suggests Brexit vote has made the UK poorer.
GDP is likely between 1.5% and 3% lower than if the UK had voted to remain.
This amounts to an annual loss of £500-£1000 per person or £33 billion-£66 billion in aggregate 16/
Full economic consequences of Brexit yet to materialise
Trade barriers will not change until transition period ends
Little is known about whether/how Brexit will interact with Covid-19
There is probably more to come 17/