By statute, Acting U.S. Attorney/SDNY Audrey Strauss' term will now last 120 days, unless a Presidentially appointed nominee is confirmed by the Senate in the meantime. That takes her into mid-October, effectively until the Election. Not what Barr was trying for, obviously.
However, Strauss can be expected to abide by the generally sensible rule (policy, not law) that no politically sensitive indictments should be issued within a 'quiet period' of 60 days prior to an election. That period starts Sept. 4th.
Therefore, in practice, the period in which any sensitive indictments might be issued by SDNY is from now until Sept. 4th: approximately 12 weeks.
Whether Barr's move against Berman was related to this timeline, i.e., anticipating that indictments might drop in the next 3 months, is unknown. Given the political cost implicit in the move, however, inferences can be drawn. Barr seems to have been 'motivated.'
That said, SDNY will *not* rush out indictments to hit a window. Indictments will be issued when ready. These are complex cases, and SDNY will cross every 't' and dot every 'i.' Whether we're now in an SDNY 'drop zone' for indictments therefore remains almost completely unknown.
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🧵My read: GM's pressuring Trump, as I wrote she would. If she were quiet and happy in the cushy digs she negotiated w/ Blanche, they'd leave her be, at least till after mid-terms, and there'd be no need to parlay with her. That they're meeting w/ her suggests she's got demands.
From GM's pov, there's no upside in delaying her power play: (i) she knows Trump's a treacherous jackal whose promise of a pardon can't be trusted, (ii) even if Trump could be trusted, his shelf life (physically and politically) is probably short, and (iii) she's impatient.
Also: (iv) she's leveraging the feverish interest in the 'Epstein Files.' With the battle over the discharge resolution (w/ stakes so high that Trump's ordered Johnson to keep Congress on shutdown), does Trump really want GM leaking more stuff like the 'birthday book' ?
🧵My take on the Homan story and a general problem in our laws:
Homan's obviously dirty. There were undoubtedly more of these 'transactions' (that's how FBI got onto him originally). He's been revealed as a slimy, dishonest person and a betrayer of the public's trust. But ...
The Vance/Bondi line that Homan 'did not commit a crime' and didn't take a 'bribe' rests on the fact that the payoff occurred during the campaign and *before* he held an official position. He was soliciting money in *anticipation* of being in a position, later, to bestow favors.
On its face (putting aside that it was a sting), the $50,000 was a 'bet' that Homan would take office and then be able to perform the services he was advertising. It was a 'bet' because his taking office wasn't certain. Can you 'bribe' a private citizen ?
🧵As @SpeakerJohnson extends the House recess amid a full government shutdown, all to forestall a vote on a discharge resolution that would order the release Epstein files by DOJ, my thoughts turn to August 1974. Bear with me.
On Aug. 5, 1974, Nixon's 'secret tapes' leaked, proving he'd directed the Watergate coverup and lied about doing so. It detonated in GOP Senate and House ranks with powerful force.
On Aug. 7, 1974, Sens. Barry Goldwater and William Scott and Rep. John Rhodes journeyed to the WH to tell Nixon they no longer had the votes, in either Senate or House, to forestall impeachment and conviction. Nixon resigned the next day.
🧵Trump's demented Peace Prize quest has revealed some interesting things: 1. He really does *not* understand how thoroughly he's despised and disrespected internationally or the reputational damage sustained by any person or institution aligning with him.
2. His neediness is uncontrollable. He grasps desperately for affirmation and adulation, even to the extent of publicly avowing his hunger for an honor in a way that any other statesman would consider demeaning and dishonorable.
3. What he wants, he takes (or does everything in his power to take). He and his claque have, for all intents and purposes, demanded that the prize be awarded to him.
Trump has made several statements, including in the Oval Office on Friday, that the almost 500 Koreans detained were here “illegally.” That is almost certainly going to be proven false. Their lawyer has today issued a statement that “every single one” has a valid visa.
Lawyers will want to look carefully at the judicial warrant for the round up. It wasn’t a ‘normal’ ICE immigration related action. It was a multi-agency (including FBI) action aimed at “illegal employment practices.” Does what happened match what was authorized ?
🧵There is obviously no help coming from any true-to-their-oaths GOP electeds. They’ve all be spayed, and will answer to history. The judiciary can only do so much, and SCOTUS is in the tank. We’ve got 3 1/2 more years of this coming. What will save us ?
Sad to say, I don’t see the current generation of Americans awakening to “the dangers of fascism” or other appeals to their better angels.
The only realistic hope is in broad public rejection of the GOP program. How could that happen ? Only if there is enormous pain. Only if the roof falls in, on the economy, on health care, on peoples’ stipends. Pain like an unanesthetized battlefield amputation.