Some thoughts on the Turkish local elections, in which center-left opposition party CHP won sweeping victories nationwide:

1. I doubt repudiation of ‘political Islam’ was a powerful factor outside secular bastions like Izmir (see below).

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1774549079214694528

2. “All politics is local.” These were local elections. People voted for more efficient, less corrupt local administrations and services. AKP’s corruption at local level has seriously damaged them.

Thread. Almost everyone reading this is of a similar political inclination as me. Almost every politically attuned American is, in the same way, in one camp or the other by now. The orientations are firmly fixed, in my view. Yes, there are ‘swing voters’ and ‘undecideds’ who might be determinative in a tight election, but in the main, minds are made up, and have been for a long time.

Thread 🧵Apropos the Lewiston shooting, I see people saying (for the umpteenth time): "Republicans worship guns." Yes, the GOP has consistently opposed gun control, but I think for somewhat different reasons at different times.

Thread, embedding an @lrozen thread on Tom Friedman's warning against a full-on ground invasion of Gaza (with interesting reporting from behind the scenes of Biden 's visit to Israel).

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1715518519352131596

I made similar comments night before last in a podcast with @ZevShalev, noting that something "more like the surgeon's scalpel than a blunderbuss" was needed, at least for now.

Thread.

Hugh Peyman’s 'America as No. 3: Get Real About China, India and the Rest' is an important book (just out, available on Amazon). Peyman draws on a lifetime’s close observation of China: Deputy Business Editor of the Cut; reporter for Far Eastern Economic Review; head of Asian equities research at Merrill Lynch; and founder of an influential Shanghai-based economic consultancy.

I think it’s become very clear: Leonard Leo is simply an influence peddler. And, in the market for influence, he’s been skillful in matching buyers and sellers. It’s a simple business, stripped of its ideological camouflage, and he’s made a ton of money at it.

https://twitter.com/senwhitehouse/status/1671637401108619271

In this light, Leo's concerted efforts to handpick Supreme Court Justices and other judges looks less like a conservative 'crusade' than an effort to establish two sides of a market he could exploit.

Some important historical context: the fight against this obscenity was already underway. At the Democratic National Convention in 1948, Sen. Hubert Humphrey led a successful fight to introduce platform planks to roll back Jim Crow. +

https://twitter.com/theharpoonman/status/1670585711194669057

‘Dixiecrats’ led by South Carolina’s Strom Thurmond rebelled and walked out. They campaigned as a third party, under the slogan “Segregation Forever !” Southern racists gradually settled into the GOP, and by 1968 were openly courted by Nixon (“Southern strategy”).

Thread. A Watergate snippet found in an old journal of mine. James D. St. Clair, Nixon's impeachment counsel, saying in April 1978 that the Special Prosecutor essentially lucked into the 'smoking gun' tape. For any who have trouble with my handwriting, it says in relevant part:

"St. Clair latched onto Tom Herman and me and started talking about Watergate. He said there was "no question," until the 'smoking gun' tape was found, that he would have won the impeachment trial.

Thread. Occasioned by Daniel Ellsberg’s passing, some thoughts about what Americans of my generation have learned about our government. We’d be justified in being cynical but, somehow, most of us are not. Consider the following: In my politically active lifespan, there have been three great demonstrations of our government’s capacity for fundamental, persistent mendacity and lawlessness. Ellsberg was instrumental in exposing the first, with publication of the Pentagon Papers (1971).

@djrothkopf Thanks for the thoughtful thread. I confess to having mistrusted and vehemently opposed HAK on policy grounds since the mid-60s (when he wasn't yet visible to most people). I won't rehearse the 'crimes of Henry Kissinger,' but wd mention two things which have always marked him+ @djrothkopf , for me, as both treacherous and fully prepared to act illegally: (1) his betrayal of Dean Rusk by insinuating himself in secret Paris peace talks while simultaneously (i) assuring everyone on the USG side that he hated Nixon, and +

THREAD. "Big picture" thoughts on Round 1 of the Turkish elections, by an American with more than 20 years close involvement with Turkey. This is a personal distillation, not a blow by blow account of what happened, or why. It’s an attempt to reckon with reality. I try to take things as they are, not as I wish them to be. I come to some personally discomforting conclusions.

🧵"A good educator is a gift from the Gods" made me think: which of my early teachers was such a gift ? I was lucky throughout, but one stands out: Don Baker, 6th Grade, at Itazuke AFB in Fukuoka, Japan. Single man, invested in his students. Intent on broadening our world.

https://twitter.com/politicsusa46/status/1642123222068998145

Demanding, and creative. He bought subscriptions to Time magazine for the entire class, set the required reading every week and, without warning (say, in the middle of math), called on people to stand up and report.

🧵Trump must be prosecuted wherever and whenever prosecutors and grand juries determine, by normal legal standards, that he committed crimes. He has no special status, and justice requires it. It’s normal and necessary in our legal system, and key to our society's cohesion. Some of the exultant, relieved reaction to today’s indictment reflects, however, a belief that prosecutions and convictions of Trump will ‘break the fever’ and deliver us from our political crisis. They will not. We are beyond that, unfortunately.

🧵I'm seeing the usual anti-NRA postings in reaction to another school shooting, bemoaning the control that NRA money has over GOP politicians, thwarting meaningful gun laws. I stipulate: the NRA is very bad and has done untold harm for a long time. But I also note: the NRA is a shadow of its former self, eviscerated by legal action, law suits and internal strife. Its coffers are a fraction of what they were. How much influence are they still buying ?

Turkish Twitter is an oasis in an information desert. Discerning straight facts is very hard amid the media's welter of misinformation, and Twitter is an important forum in the midst of turmoil. Turkish Twitter saddens me, however, by demonstrating the justifiable fear under which the dialogue is conducted.

Thread. Turkish politics is in an uproar after yesterday's splintering of the opposition alliance, ahead of an expected announcement on Monday of the alliance's joint candidate. Who's doing what to whom, who stands to benefit, and even the date of the election are all unclear. For non-Turkish Twitter purposes, the intricacies are superfluous. My high-level summary: Even before the devastating earthquakes in Turkey's south, Erdogan's AKP was highly vulnerable on any rational political calculus.

Thread, apropos the domestic political consequences of the Turkish earthquake disaster. While the immediate, urgent focus must be on disaster relief, the govt's competence and effectiveness (or lack thereof) in relief efforts may have important near term political consequences. Americans have seen at least two recent POTUS' politically damaged through weak disaster relief efforts. For example, GWBush never recovered, politically, from his handling of Hurricane Katrina. Trump's response to Hurricane Dorian is another example.
nola.com/news/george-w-….

This feels to me like an opening salvo against McGonigal, intending to gain his cooperation in a wider investigation. Time will tell. The Deripaska road leads in many directions.

https://twitter.com/hugolowell/status/1617616264838656000

Notwithstanding the big reaction to these indictments, McGonigal hasn't been charged with espionage or anything close to it. They've charged him w/ breaking the sanctions laws by taking money from a sanctioned person (Deripaska), and w/ money laundering (the same payments). +

Thread. Let's assume the SCOTUS Marshal's investigation -- so far as it went -- was thorough and professional. Let's assume that the Marshal's mandate was, in good faith, to find the leaker(s). Over 100 'employees' of the Court were questioned; many investigative tools were employed. Yet the Marshal came up empty. After exhaustive efforts (let's assume), they couldn't finger anyone. What would normally happen to an investigation that gets to that point ?

My read on Fulton Co. DA Fanny Willis' decision to allow a 'special presentment' of the Grand Jury's findings and recommendations: indictments are coming, but Willis is going to orchestrate them in a savvy way. Willis is politically sophisticated. She'll allow the GJ to speak for itself, and let the resulting spasm of partisan reaction run its course. Rather than immediately announce indictments upon the GJ's termination, she'll 'reflect on' the GJ's findings.

THREAD. People wonder why significant elements of the GOP continue to attack U.S. support for Ukraine. They’re not paying attention to recent history: there’s a clear through line, staring us in the face. Ask yourself a few questions.

https://twitter.com/FrankMikeDavis1/status/1611828846961086468?s=20&t=QEt0NmTzL8OLTsWlrWTpPw

2.Why was Paul Manafort, who had served Ukraine’s deposed President Viktor Yanukovych for a decade, appointed Chairman of Trump’s campaign in 2015 ?

theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…