1) Fox is told it may be be a big challenge even to get police reform on the floor in the Senate Wednesday. And, if that effort fails, that may be it for police reform legislation.
2) A test vote is expected Wednesday morning to launch debate on the measure. But the math simply may not add up.
3) Fox is told it may be a challenge to get seven Democratic senators to go along with 53 Republicans to score 60 yeas..and break a filibuster on what’s called “the motion to proceed” to the police reform bill.
4) Democrats consider the legislation crafted by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) to be “hollow” and one Democratic source told Fox “it does a lot of damage.”
5) If the test vote fails to secure 60 yeas, any effort to legislatively curb police abuse may be over before it starts. The Senate bill is dead in its tracks. Y
6) Yes, the House would then vote to pass its own police bill written by Democrats on Thursday. But it doesn’t matter if the legislation is stalled from the get go in the Senate.
7) The issue of “police reform” immediately enters the same political purgatory as “guns” or “repeal and replace Obamacare.” Those are issues which consume a lot of political oxygen…but are legislatively deadlocked on Capitol Hill.
8) There are basically three options on the table going into Wednesday:
A)The motion to proceed fails to garner 60 yeas. Game, set match. Police reform is over.
A)The motion to proceed fails to garner 60 yeas. Game, set match. Police reform is over.
9)
B) The motion to proceed gets 60 yeas, thus allowing the Senate to begin debate on the issue. There would be efforts to amend the bill.
B) The motion to proceed gets 60 yeas, thus allowing the Senate to begin debate on the issue. There would be efforts to amend the bill.
10) But it’s unclear if the bill, altered or not, could break a filibuster on the back end. In addition to needing 60 yeas to start debate on a bill, you also need 60 yeas to end debate on a bill.
11)
C) Let’s say the Senate actually gets on the bill, avoids a filibuster at the end and actually passes a bill. The House will pass its bill on Thursday. At that stage, the House and Senate will have approved different versions of police reform legislation.
C) Let’s say the Senate actually gets on the bill, avoids a filibuster at the end and actually passes a bill. The House will pass its bill on Thursday. At that stage, the House and Senate will have approved different versions of police reform legislation.
12) They have to go to a conference committee (a meeting of House members and senators) to resolve differences in the legislation..and send a new, unified, merged bill back to both the House and Senate again.
13) Fox is told Democrats believe going to conference is a bad idea because they suspect nothing would emerge from the conference committee which could pass a second time. That’s why Senate Democrats may just draw a line and short-circuit the process on the procedural vote on Wed
