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A scary paper for our scary times … Kato and Sparber (commons.colgate.edu/econ_facschol/…) study the reduction in the number of #H1B visas in 2004 on NEW student enrollment into US schools
Before 2004, all foreign students could bank on getting an #H1B visa at graduation ... these guarantees evaporated, however, when the cap reverted 65,000 due to sunset clauses … except that specific agreements exempted students from five countries
What happened? Undergrad enrollments from affected countries dropped by 14% ...

Worse, the very *best* students were esp. apt to go elsewhere: SAT scores of applicants from affected countries declined by 20 pts, on average, or ~1.5%

Declines also for grad students.
In other words, the uncertainty about visa access in 4-5 years had big impacts in the decision to choose America

And this episode in 2004 was like little kids playing with toy trucks compared to this week's Monster Truck Smackdown courtesy of the Trump Administration
Not that anyone would ever want to protect this of course (courtesy of @emiguelez and Carsten)
or this
or this
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