Thread by @tanvi_madan

🧵 I've seen a no. of suggestions that China & India will go back to normal. This is not a viable option:

- crisis makes clear agmts they put in place over last 3 decades are not working & 🇮🇳 thinks 🇨🇳 indeed violated them
- foreign policy estb coalescing around a harder view 1/

Among GoI's China hands, in recent decades, there's been broad agreement about China being a challenge, but there have been differences abt how much & what to do abt it.

No panda huggers in the Indian system, but there's a spectrum of panda shruggers to panda sluggers. 2/

In last few wks, esp last few days, been a remarkable convergence among GoI's recent 🇨🇳 hands across the spectrum abt:
- 🇨🇳 primarily a challenge
- Can't go back to biz as usual
- Watershed moment
- Standoff/Galwan will hv serious repercussions
- C can't veto 🇮🇳's partnershps 3/

Shyam Saran: "must rework the assumptions underlying our China policy"

- rels "more explicitly adversarial"; "our foreign & security policies must be re-oriented" 4/

Nirupama Rao: "the face China has shown us is unpleasant, unfriendly and hostile"

- need to be “less hesitant and less sensitive about China”

- June 15 spells "the end of a chapter in relations that began" in 1976; "the structure came apart" 5/

Gautam Bambawale: "entire architecture [of agmts] has collapsed, and is now in the heap of history"

"Chinese have fundamentally violated all our agreements"

"an inflection point"; "must make a fundamental reassessment of...China policy" 6/

Nalin Surie: "In 1 fell swoop 🇨🇳..has effectively destroyed the edifice of bilat rels so painstakingly built" post-62

"Strategic & Cooperative partnership (2005) & the Closer Devp Partnership (2014) can now be buried"

"No country can hv a veto on India’s rels w any other[s]" 7/

Even before June 15, Shivshankar Menon: Chinese behavior is "v different" from the past

"this is about our future relationship with China. The Chinese need to understand...that this is going to have very serious repercussions for the relationship going forward" 8/

Also pre-June 15, Vijay Gokhale: "Arrogance has replaced humility. Persuasion is quickly abandoned in favour of the stick"

"they are bent on creating irritations simultaneously w multiple neighbouring countries"

"world needs balance...[US] leadership is indispensable" 9/

S Jaishankar: "unprecedented devp will hv a serious impact on the bilateral rel"

What will be the impact of the convergence in their views? We shall see.

But for all the debate abt impact of 🇨🇳🇮🇳 crisis on India-US, don't ignore impact on 🇨🇳🇮🇳 (that will hv implications for 🇺🇸)

Does this mean India will stop engaging with China No.

But the nature, extent and expectations of that engagement will change. 11/

As re US-India rels, unlikely to be dramatic swings - cuz there don't need to be - but there will be impact

Keep in mind there are things on this list of 🇮🇳🇺🇸 defense, security coop over last 3 yrs that wld not hv happened w/o Doklam. & that standoff wasn't at June 15 level 12/