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Tanvi Madan Profile picture
Tanvi Madan
@tanvi_madan
Sr Fellow, @BrookingsInst. Author, "Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Rels During the Cold War." Host, Global India podcast https://t.co/4htS1ClEzY
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Jun 15, 2023 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
🧵 Ahead of Indian PM Modi's state visit to the US, here are some slides on US-India ties.

Certain things become apparent
- ties go back to 1947 (or before) but, in some ways, cooperation is quite new, w/ a reset in 1999-2000
- it's a multi-domain mutually beneficial rel. 1/ Image 2/ 25 yrs ago, there were US sanctions on India.

Since then, the US & India have developed a range of bilateral dialogues at various levels & on various issues. They have also now formed groupings like the Quad & I2U2 Image
May 2, 2023 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
🧵 Some quick thoughts. On US investment in India’s utility, I think it depends on:

1. your expectations from it
2. if you think Taiwan contingency reax is only metric

On 1: I don’t think Biden admin expects India to engage in collective defence or defend liberal int’l order
1/ 2/ Re collective defence, about a month ago, NSC Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell said,

“India is not an ally of the United States, and will never be an ally of the United States. But it does not mean that we will not be close partners and share many things.”
Oct 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 a question readers have asked is, wld India-China rels return to normal if Xi thought strategically & agreed to return to status quo ante at the border.

Short answer: I still don't believe 🇨🇳🇮🇳 ties can return to the track they were on in 2019, let alone 2003-

Here's why
1/ 2/ Another version of ques is, will Modi seek/strike a deal with China?

Lil' doubt Modi wld like a stable border. Wld enable him to
- focus on econ
- buy time to enhance mil capabilities, border infra
- host successful G20 next year
- avoid border becoming 2024 re-election issue
Oct 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🇮🇳🇺🇦
Readout of Indian PM Modi's call with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy

[Ukrainian PM after a mtg w Indian EAM Jaishankar had said "We count on India's support in providing grain corridors & demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station"]
pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa… 2/ Don't know what it's signaling, but the reference to the Nov. 2021 meeting is interesting.
Sep 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Putin to Modi: "I know about your position on the conflict in Ukraine and I know about your concerns. I know that you share these concerns and we want all of this to end as soon as possible..." 1/ 2/ Modi, who skipped his usual initial hug, to Putin:

"Today's era is not one of war, and I’ve talked to you about this on the phone several times…in the coming days, how we move towards the path of peace – we will definitely have an opportunity to discuss this."

[my transl.]
Sep 14, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
🧵 since there've been 2 announced meetings of ambassadors from the Quad countries in the last couple of days, a thread about them... 1/ 2/ The first public sign of Quad ambassadors meeting was this from Sept. 2020 when US permanent rep to NATO hosted in Brussels (it was Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison then)
Sep 14, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Motivations for India's membership in SCO:
- ↑ ties w Central Asian countries
- be in room when issues like Afghanistan sit. discussed
- keep Russia onside
- keep an eye on 🇨🇳🇷🇺
- don't want to leave platform to rivals (🇨🇳🇵🇰)
- can be venue to talk w rivals 2/ Limitations for India in SCO:
- started out as non-west platform; now 🇨🇳🇷🇺 pushing to make it an anti-west one -- but for India, west key for tackling China challenge, econ & tech transformation, enhancing int'l status

- China-India contradictions

- India-Pakistan tensions
May 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
🇦🇺🇮🇳 For those in India watching #AusVotes22 results & wondering about new govt & India, China, Quad etc, worth seeing remarks by Sen. Penny Wong, then shadow foreign minister, at @raisinadialogue this year 1/
2/ Also, particularly to see where Australia's China discussion is, watch the foreign policy debate a week ago between Sens. Payne & Wong
(tldr: this is not the 2007-08 Aus Labor Party)
Apr 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting India esp noted: "reviewed mil-to-mil engagements, info sharing, enhanced logistics cooperation, & ability of the Armed Forces to coop. closely under compatible comm arrangements. In this context, closer cooperation of Special Operation Forces came up prominently" US readout: "the 2+2 Ministerial advanced initiatives that will allow the U.S. and Indian militaries to work more seamlessly together across all domains of potential conflict—from the seas to cyberspace."
Apr 12, 2022 • 22 tweets • 9 min read
🇮🇳🇺🇸 Pulling together the documents & tweets from the Biden-Modi call today, and the US-India 2+2 (and associated meetings) 1/ 2/ Initial remarks from Biden & Modi
(Video: )
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Apr 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Also present during Biden-Modi virtual meeting:
- US SecState Tony Blinken
- US SecDef Lloyd Austin
- Indian EAM S. Jaishankar
- Indian RM Rajnath Singh
- US NSA Jake Sullivan
- Indian ambo to US Taranjit Sandhu 2/ Biden:
- 🇺🇸🇮🇳 will continue "close consultations" on 🇷🇺🇺🇦
- welcomes 🇮🇳 humanitarian support for 🇺🇦
- 🇺🇸🇮🇳 ties growing "deeper and stronger"
Apr 4, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Wow.

🇮🇳📺 Arnab Goswami leads with: "Forget abt the geopolitics at play...think abt the genocide at Bucha...where there's been a mass massacre of civilians by Russian forces...where little children hv been killed by Putin's forces...it's barbaric..& it's not fake news, Russians" This is quite something from the primetime anchor on Indian TV, and a shift.

Arnab: "was it a genocide? no doubt about it in my view"
#Bucha
Apr 3, 2022 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
🧵.....🇷🇺🛢️🇮🇳

Today's is on India, Russia, & oil.

Note: I am not an energy specialist. I used to work on Indian energy issues & some of debate's struck me as a bit over-the-top on:
- 😱 re amount of oil India is purchasing
- idea some treasure chest's opened up for India. 1/ 2/ First, let's look at India's crude oil imports.

IEA: "About 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to OECD Europe, & another 20% go to China"

For India, RUS been a minor source of imports.

From 2019-20 to Apr '21-Jan '22, ↑ import from
🇷🇺 18%
but also
🇴🇲 63%
🇺🇸 38%
🇰🇼 18%
Mar 30, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
🧵 on how several Indian interests hv been adversely affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Might this over time open up some opportunities for India (& for partners w India)? Perhaps but GOI's clearly been unhappy re effects
- strategic
- security
- economic
- political
1/ 2/ Just listen to the Indian leadership...

Today, PM Modi: "Developments in Europe in the last few weeks have raised a question mark on the stability of the international order"

Echoes sthg he said recently re adverse impact on IO & India's economy
Mar 30, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
🧵 A somewhat different thread today, in that it's a series of charts. There's been lots of discussion of the nature & extent of India's partnerships, especially vis-a-vis China, Russia, & the United States.

So, I decided to compare some of the data on 🇮🇳's ties with 🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸
1/ 2/ Let's first look at economic & related ties.

Here's the comparison of India's trade ties with China, Russia, & the US.

As for FDI, in 2020-21, US was #2 source. Meanwhile, during those years, several restrictions were imposed on Chinese investment.
Mar 27, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Listing my thread talks rel to India's approach to the Russia-Ukraine war so they're in one place for reference:

Sep 2021: on relevance-divergence dichotomy in 🇮🇳 rel w 🇷🇺 bit.ly/3NB7iHE

Nov 2021: on why a 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 wld test 🇮🇳 govt bit.ly/3JIXoBl 1/ 2/

Jan 2022: on why India shld care abt potential Russian military action vs Ukraine bit.ly/3NlH9MV

Jan 2022: how I expected India to respond to the developing 🇷🇺🇺🇦 crisis bit.ly/3iLYosl
Mar 26, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
🧵 Seems to be a joint/coordinated China-Russia effort on to say India is on same page as them on Ukraine & int'l order

(aim: bolster 🇨🇳🇷🇺 position, create wedge btwn 🇮🇳 & US/Eur/Aus/Jpn?)

Maybe explains why @DrSJaishankar made it a point to highlight India had its own POV 1/ 2/ The Chinese readouts of the meetings btwn Wang Yi & Indian NSA Doval and EAM Jaishankar try to msg both that India is and should be on the same page as Russia & China

The Indian readout stresses that India has its own POV on Ukraine & int'l order
Mar 25, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
🧵 🇨🇳🇮🇳 On Chinese FM Wang Yi's visit to India.

2 things to look at:
- EAM Jaishankar's presser , bit.ly/3JFREs9
- PRC readout bit.ly/3wClp9j, bit.ly/3iDarbs
1/ 2/ Observations up front:
- we don't know specifics of what was discussed or agreed to wrt border
- was interesting how quickly GOI did a presser (& uploaded transcript) -- perhaps learning from recent mtgs not just w IND where PRC has put out its POV speedily to shape narrative
Mar 22, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
🧵 There's been some speculation about Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi's potential visit to India & the reasons behind it.

Trip hasn't been officially confirmed but here's what might lie behind such a visit if it happens on March 24-25 as reported... 1/
hindustantimes.com/india-news/for… 2/ If I was China -- I'm not but can play one on TV/Twitter -- this visit might make sense for at least 3 broad reasons. Might be an attempt to create:
- space for China
- space for Russia (+ RIC, BRICS, SCO world)
- wedge between India & US, Aus, Jpn (Indo-Pac world)
Mar 20, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
🧵 I've been asked by a few people to elaborate on something I've mentioned in a couple of talks, i.e. India's evolving approach vis-a-vis the Russia-Ukraine war.

So, what are the signs of this evolving approach? 1/ 2/ First, just a note on what has not changed about India's approach.

Officially, Delhi has still not called Russia's actions an "invasion" or even a "war" -- PM Modi in a speech to party workers, however, has called it a war (yudh, jung).

MEA's used "hostilities", "conflict"
Mar 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/ New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol spoke with Indian PM Modi expressing his "firm determination to widen the horizon for practical cooperation on foreign affairs & security with India"

Yoon has now spoken with
🇺🇸 Biden
🇯🇵 Kishida
🇬🇧 Johnson
🇦🇺 Morrison
🇮🇳 Modi 2/ 🇮🇳🇰🇷 Modi tweet re his call with Yoon