Chinese are mobilising to gain to stronger hand in negotiations, at each stumbling block, they will use force to change facts on ground. The mobilisation seems enuf to commence a War. Likely sizeable forces undergoing Training in depth areas.
That said China doesn't want war.
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That said China doesn't want war.
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Chinese strength in Unmanned Systems, large sized airborne/ air assualt forces and mechanisation will manifest in contact war. It will be supported by electronic, cyber and cognitive warfare to overwhelm enemy public opinion to psychologically defeat the enemy
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Chinese will likely use neutral territories with sort of deniability that we are seeing everywhere in their actions. Air transit through Bhutan airspace/ Nepal airspace for their 3rd dimensional forces is a distinct possibility.
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They will count that India will enter Bhutan to protect as per treaty, thereafter China will transit through Bhutan via Road as well. Act to get India to enter Bhutan is the ploy to use Bhutanese territory for offensive in India.
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Nepalese territory may be utilised for mov of discreet elements for sabotage, I don't envisage a ground threat, less limited use of air corridor as already discussed.
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Chinese mechanisation restricts them to roads, therefore large reliance on 3rd dimension in other areas should be given while planning defence of India. There are two keys to success, solid Air defence(that caters for electronic, Cyber and drone swarms)
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Own efforts should be to make enemy diamount and fight...our air superiority in platforms and bases should get lost in electronic warfare..make sure those communication links are working. We must cater for a threat through Bhutan without giving a cause of war.
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Lastly, we must be clear for all steps of escalation ladder and make sure enemy knows it, it's not the size but the heart that matters in a fight. Keep disrupting enemies calculations, he will learn a lesson
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Chinese are very sensitive to casualties now unlike 1962, our information machinery should exploit this, internal security is the biggest worry of China, too many sons dying will be cause enough to stop fighting
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Lastly we must activate Tibet to hilt, go all out. Hope some worthy ideas can be taken from these, to prepare our defence and disruptions against China.
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While the de-escalation process is underway, it's important to not be lulled into complacency and remain prepared for quick and high escalation.
It's also important not to move into self-congratulatory mode, where our media and general commentriate will take the armed forces
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It's also important not to move into self-congratulatory mode, where our media and general commentriate will take the armed forces
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It's time for genuine introspection and corrections. The de-escalation is an interlude and it will only last till the next crisis. The next one will be bigger and have higher stakes, the enemy will be better coordinated and prepared..will we?
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The long laundary list of reforms is known to all..to begin with, get the right man for right job..though with present system of enormous weightage to Confidential Reports and Inflated Reporting, we will continue to get less than adequate..
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Lastly I sense some genuine effort for reforms happening from top..we should support these and do our bit to guide these reforms in the right direction..that will require an honest appraisal and genuine suggestions beyond parochial Regimental and Service interest.
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